Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-week Average at 7:30 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 8:00 A.M., NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months at 8:20 A.M., Existing Home Sales and Existing Home Sales MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Logan Speech at 12:30 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
Wholesale beef prices have been at record highs this year, while pork prices have been stagnant for months, and chicken breast prices have held well below 2025 all year as the flock has been restocked. Boneless/skinless chicken breast prices forged to a seasonal high in April at $1.75/Lb, which was $.90 below last year’s high. The market has since trended lower, losing $.50 over the last 12 weeks. Last week’s average price of $1.26/Lb was nearly $.70 or 36% cheaper than a year ago. Pork and poultry struggle to compete with a good steak, but for daily protein demand, consumers have found some relief in poultry products.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Confidence Low in Forecast Beyond 10 Days Amid Model Disagreement; Heat Remains on Track July 13-17:
The Central US forecast has, on balance trended cooler across the primary Midwest in mid/late July, though dangerous heat is still projected across the Plains and is forecast to dot areas of the western Midwest next week. Rapid soil moisture loss lies ahead in KS, NE, and SD, and ARC notes that models are very much at odds over temperatures details beyond July17th. Stay focused on 10-day outlooks. Showers favor the mid-South and Eastern Midwest over the next 3-4 days, which keeps soil moisture surpluses intact across IL, IN, OH, and KY. Ridge-riding storms are probable in much of IA the next 72 hours. 6-15 day forecasts remain void of meaningful rainfall nationwide. Confidence is higher with regard to the arrival of widespread dryness beyond the weekend. Crop health will be more varied in late July amid incoming heat and longer-term moisture deficits still present across the Central Plains and Carolina’s.
Ag Resources US Energy Market Discussion
US-Iranian Tensions Returns; US Crude Balance Historically Tight:
Crude futures on Wednesday rallied $3.50/barrel but supply risks have returned as the already-fragile US-Iranian ceasefire is in jeopardy. Crude price discovery since late spring has been more focused on future Mid-East vessel flows rather than spot supply & demand . This makes sense, but in the back round there’s been o end to the tightening of US crude and distillate product balance sheets. Total US crude inventories, including reserves, on July 3rd, total just 730 Mil Barrels, the lowest since 1984 and down 12% year-over-year. 90 Mil Barrels have been withdrawn from the US reserve since April, and ARC estimates that current stocks just cover over 5 weeks of consumption. Motor gasoline inventories last Friday totaled 212 Mil Barrels, down 8% from last year and the lowest for mid-summer since 2012. ARC hopes tensions can be resolved but is prepared for the return of energy market volatility.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Recovery Pauses at Chart Resistance; Sagging Argentine Fob Premiums:
CBOT corn corrected after early July 40-cent rally. As mentioned earlier, major chart support is clustered between $4.68-$4.74, basis Dec, and marginally cooler Central US forecasts and renewed US trade tension (between the US and Spain, a large buyer of US corn) triggered profit taking. Argentine exporters are aggressive this week, with fob premiums there dropping to $.80-$.85/Bu over, vs. $1.00 over last week. ARC estimates managed funds in the last five sessions have bought/covered 60,000 contracts. This leaves funds’ position near flat as of yesterday’s close. Breaks will occur at times as the details of US weather dominate short-term action. Models end Tuesday capping max temps in IA and E Midwest in the upper 80’s next week. However, there’s no yield scenario that prevents a sizable contraction of US and exporter stocks & stocks/use. Continue to leverage intermittent weakness with supply coverage & long positions. USDA is expected to trim old and new crop US end stocks by 100-125 Mil Bu, on tomorrows Commitment of Traders.
Never A Dull Moment : Navigating Energies & Grains. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/09/2026
We kickoff the day with Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-week Average at 7:30 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 8:00 A.M., NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months at 8:20 A.M., Existing Home Sales and Existing Home Sales MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Logan Speech at 12:30 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
Wholesale beef prices have been at record highs this year, while pork prices have been stagnant for months, and chicken breast prices have held well below 2025 all year as the flock has been restocked. Boneless/skinless chicken breast prices forged to a seasonal high in April at $1.75/Lb, which was $.90 below last year’s high. The market has since trended lower, losing $.50 over the last 12 weeks. Last week’s average price of $1.26/Lb was nearly $.70 or 36% cheaper than a year ago. Pork and poultry struggle to compete with a good steak, but for daily protein demand, consumers have found some relief in poultry products.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Confidence Low in Forecast Beyond 10 Days Amid Model Disagreement; Heat Remains on Track July 13-17:
The Central US forecast has, on balance trended cooler across the primary Midwest in mid/late July, though dangerous heat is still projected across the Plains and is forecast to dot areas of the western Midwest next week. Rapid soil moisture loss lies ahead in KS, NE, and SD, and ARC notes that models are very much at odds over temperatures details beyond July17th. Stay focused on 10-day outlooks. Showers favor the mid-South and Eastern Midwest over the next 3-4 days, which keeps soil moisture surpluses intact across IL, IN, OH, and KY. Ridge-riding storms are probable in much of IA the next 72 hours. 6-15 day forecasts remain void of meaningful rainfall nationwide. Confidence is higher with regard to the arrival of widespread dryness beyond the weekend. Crop health will be more varied in late July amid incoming heat and longer-term moisture deficits still present across the Central Plains and Carolina’s.
Ag Resources US Energy Market Discussion
US-Iranian Tensions Returns; US Crude Balance Historically Tight:
Crude futures on Wednesday rallied $3.50/barrel but supply risks have returned as the already-fragile US-Iranian ceasefire is in jeopardy. Crude price discovery since late spring has been more focused on future Mid-East vessel flows rather than spot supply & demand . This makes sense, but in the back round there’s been o end to the tightening of US crude and distillate product balance sheets. Total US crude inventories, including reserves, on July 3rd, total just 730 Mil Barrels, the lowest since 1984 and down 12% year-over-year. 90 Mil Barrels have been withdrawn from the US reserve since April, and ARC estimates that current stocks just cover over 5 weeks of consumption. Motor gasoline inventories last Friday totaled 212 Mil Barrels, down 8% from last year and the lowest for mid-summer since 2012. ARC hopes tensions can be resolved but is prepared for the return of energy market volatility.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Recovery Pauses at Chart Resistance; Sagging Argentine Fob Premiums:
CBOT corn corrected after early July 40-cent rally. As mentioned earlier, major chart support is clustered between $4.68-$4.74, basis Dec, and marginally cooler Central US forecasts and renewed US trade tension (between the US and Spain, a large buyer of US corn) triggered profit taking. Argentine exporters are aggressive this week, with fob premiums there dropping to $.80-$.85/Bu over, vs. $1.00 over last week. ARC estimates managed funds in the last five sessions have bought/covered 60,000 contracts. This leaves funds’ position near flat as of yesterday’s close. Breaks will occur at times as the details of US weather dominate short-term action. Models end Tuesday capping max temps in IA and E Midwest in the upper 80’s next week. However, there’s no yield scenario that prevents a sizable contraction of US and exporter stocks & stocks/use. Continue to leverage intermittent weakness with supply coverage & long positions. USDA is expected to trim old and new crop US end stocks by 100-125 Mil Bu, on tomorrows Commitment of Traders.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374