Last night, amid the battle of writer’s block, I headed to bed early. I thought I could power through the sounds of fireworks, though they quickly subsided as the man upstairs had his own fireworks show planned. Soon I was getting notifications of a flash flood warning. The latest drought monitor map shows our area in northeast Nebraska in the worst (D4) drought category. While the 4+ inches at once may not bring things out of drought immediately, it is a welcomed sight. This week’s market action saw a small firework show from a USDA standpoint. The end of June is usually a more volatile report date due to collecting some unknowns. The only major surprises came from wheat and old crop corn, which added some strength back to the market. Still there were no big boomers that kicked off any flash floods from a money flow standpoint.
Corn ended on the higher side this week, with September up 1 ¼ cents, as December was unchanged on the short week. Acreage data from NASS showed 95.343 million acres of corn for this spring, up just 5,000 acres above the March intentions report. Grain Stocks data as of June 1 was tallied at 5.295 billion bushels, nearly 120 mbu below estimates but up 14% from a year ago. Monday’s Crop Progress data tallied 9% of the US corn crop as silking by June 28. Condition ratings slipped back 1 percentage points to 67% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 2 points to a 371 rating. EIA showed ethanol production rising 27,000 barrels per day to 1.117 million bpd in the week of 6/26. Stocks were up 105,000 barrels in that week 24.690 million barrels. NASS Grain Crushing data showed the largest May corn total used for ethanol since 2015 at 471.78 mbu. That was 9.7% above April and 6.16% larger than the same period last year. USDA Export Sales data indicated old crop corn business at 732,070 MT in the week of June 25, with new crop sales at 767,756 MT in that week.
The wheat complex was a stronger spot for the grains this week. SRW futures were back up by a dime this week for September, with KC wheat 19 cents higher. MPLS spring wheat up 13 ½ cents in the September contract. All wheat acres were tallied at 42.74 million acres in the Annual NASS Acreage report, 1.035 million below March Intentions data. That came mainly on a drop to the winter wheat number, down 890,000 acres from March to 31.52 million. Spring wheat acres were tallied just below estimates at 9.39 million acres, with durum at 1.83 million acres and shy of trade ideas. Quarterly Grain Stocks data showed 920 million bushels of wheat stocks on June 1, 65 mbu above last year. Crop Progress data from NASS showed 48% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by last Sunday. Conditions were unchanged at 26% good/excellent this week, as the Brugler500 index was down 2 to 262 points. Spring wheat was 32% headed, with ratings back down 5% to 59% of the crop in gd/ex condition, a 355 rating on the Brugler500 index, up 4 points from the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of June 25 showed sales for 2026/27 at 300,060 MT.
Soybeans were back and forth, with August down just a tick, with November down 8½ cents. August soybean meal was $1.30 higher on the week, with August bean oil posting a 305 point loss. NASS reported 85.36 million soybean acres planted this spring in their June Acreage report, 665,000 acres higher than in the March report. Double crop acres ticked up to 7%, from 6% last year and 4% in each of the prior 3 years. June 1 soybean stocks were up to 1.061 bbu in the quarterly Grain Stocks report. That was 5.26% above the same period last year. Crop Progress data this week showed the US soybean crop at 19% blooming by June 28, with 4% setting pods. Crop ratings were down 1% with 65% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, which saw the Brugler500 index at 365, 4 points lower on the week. Fats & Oils data from NASS showed a total of 213.1 mbu of soybeans crushed during May, which was 2.02% below last month and 4.62% larger yr/yr. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 41,786 MT in the week ending on 6/25. New crop business was reported just 182,533 MT.
Live cattle futures fell back this week, with August down $6.60. Cash trade was weaker this week down $3-5 to $255. August feeder cattle were down $9.22 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $10.61 week/week to $371.25. Wholesale boxed beef prices continued weaker this week, as the Chc/Sel spread was at $19.64. Choice boxes were back down $3.96/cwt on the week to $387.07, as Select was $4.15 lower at $367.43 as of Thursday. Export Sales data from USDA showed beef sales for 2026 at 126,062 MT for the week ending on 6/25, a calendar year high. Shipments were tallied at 128,967 MT, which was a 2026 high. There was 111,164 MT in late reporting for sales and shipments.
Hogs tried to put in some gains this week, with July up 92 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 30 cents this week at $91.48 as of June 30. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw a bounce this week, with a gain of 69 cents on the week to $96.06/cwt. The picnic, ham and belly were the only primals reported higher. Weekly Export Sales data showed 37,629 MT of pork sold for 2026 in the week ending on June 25, that was a 9-week high. Shipments were pegged at 31,796 MT, back down from the week prior.
Cotton futures saw higher trade this week, with December up 74 points. The annual June Acreage report showed all cotton acres this spring planted at 9.85 million, which was above the trade ideas of 9.6 million and the March number at 9.64 million acres. Crop Progress data was released on Monday this week, showing 37% of the US cotton crop squared last Sunday, with 9% setting bolls. Condition ratings dropped 5 percentage points at 48% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index down 10 points to 335. Export Sales from the week of 6/25 were tallied at 49,001 RB for old crop, with 44,117 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 218,753 RB. The Adjusted World Price was back down 194 points to 61.94 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the NASS Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Census trade data will be updated on Tuesday. Weekly EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning. Thursday will see the weekly Export Sales report, with July cotton futures expiring at the close. WASDE and Crop Production data will be released on Friday morning.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn saw some better bottoming action over the course of this week. Tuesdays was an outside day higher, which doesn’t have any major implications, but is not necessarily bearish. Wednesday saw some follow through to the upside, though money flow was exiting the market ahead of the three day weekend on Thursday. The first major resistance was the Bollinger midline at $4.41 ½, which was exceeded for the first time since mid-May. For the bulls, that is a step in the right direction. The next level of resistance is at $4.50 via the upper Bollinger band and the 1/3 speedline off the May high. Getting past that will take some more bull fuel, whether its weather or demand. If they can, the 38.2% Fib retracement resistance is at $4.56 ½. From a technical standpoint the MACD buy signal on a high ADX is friendly towards shifting momentum to the upside.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Fireworks and Flash Floods. Ag Marketing Report 07/06/2026
Last night, amid the battle of writer’s block, I headed to bed early. I thought I could power through the sounds of fireworks, though they quickly subsided as the man upstairs had his own fireworks show planned. Soon I was getting notifications of a flash flood warning. The latest drought monitor map shows our area in northeast Nebraska in the worst (D4) drought category. While the 4+ inches at once may not bring things out of drought immediately, it is a welcomed sight. This week’s market action saw a small firework show from a USDA standpoint. The end of June is usually a more volatile report date due to collecting some unknowns. The only major surprises came from wheat and old crop corn, which added some strength back to the market. Still there were no big boomers that kicked off any flash floods from a money flow standpoint.
Corn ended on the higher side this week, with September up 1 ¼ cents, as December was unchanged on the short week. Acreage data from NASS showed 95.343 million acres of corn for this spring, up just 5,000 acres above the March intentions report. Grain Stocks data as of June 1 was tallied at 5.295 billion bushels, nearly 120 mbu below estimates but up 14% from a year ago. Monday’s Crop Progress data tallied 9% of the US corn crop as silking by June 28. Condition ratings slipped back 1 percentage points to 67% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 2 points to a 371 rating. EIA showed ethanol production rising 27,000 barrels per day to 1.117 million bpd in the week of 6/26. Stocks were up 105,000 barrels in that week 24.690 million barrels. NASS Grain Crushing data showed the largest May corn total used for ethanol since 2015 at 471.78 mbu. That was 9.7% above April and 6.16% larger than the same period last year. USDA Export Sales data indicated old crop corn business at 732,070 MT in the week of June 25, with new crop sales at 767,756 MT in that week.
The wheat complex was a stronger spot for the grains this week. SRW futures were back up by a dime this week for September, with KC wheat 19 cents higher. MPLS spring wheat up 13 ½ cents in the September contract. All wheat acres were tallied at 42.74 million acres in the Annual NASS Acreage report, 1.035 million below March Intentions data. That came mainly on a drop to the winter wheat number, down 890,000 acres from March to 31.52 million. Spring wheat acres were tallied just below estimates at 9.39 million acres, with durum at 1.83 million acres and shy of trade ideas. Quarterly Grain Stocks data showed 920 million bushels of wheat stocks on June 1, 65 mbu above last year. Crop Progress data from NASS showed 48% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by last Sunday. Conditions were unchanged at 26% good/excellent this week, as the Brugler500 index was down 2 to 262 points. Spring wheat was 32% headed, with ratings back down 5% to 59% of the crop in gd/ex condition, a 355 rating on the Brugler500 index, up 4 points from the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of June 25 showed sales for 2026/27 at 300,060 MT.
Soybeans were back and forth, with August down just a tick, with November down 8½ cents. August soybean meal was $1.30 higher on the week, with August bean oil posting a 305 point loss. NASS reported 85.36 million soybean acres planted this spring in their June Acreage report, 665,000 acres higher than in the March report. Double crop acres ticked up to 7%, from 6% last year and 4% in each of the prior 3 years. June 1 soybean stocks were up to 1.061 bbu in the quarterly Grain Stocks report. That was 5.26% above the same period last year. Crop Progress data this week showed the US soybean crop at 19% blooming by June 28, with 4% setting pods. Crop ratings were down 1% with 65% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, which saw the Brugler500 index at 365, 4 points lower on the week. Fats & Oils data from NASS showed a total of 213.1 mbu of soybeans crushed during May, which was 2.02% below last month and 4.62% larger yr/yr. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 41,786 MT in the week ending on 6/25. New crop business was reported just 182,533 MT.
Live cattle futures fell back this week, with August down $6.60. Cash trade was weaker this week down $3-5 to $255. August feeder cattle were down $9.22 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $10.61 week/week to $371.25. Wholesale boxed beef prices continued weaker this week, as the Chc/Sel spread was at $19.64. Choice boxes were back down $3.96/cwt on the week to $387.07, as Select was $4.15 lower at $367.43 as of Thursday. Export Sales data from USDA showed beef sales for 2026 at 126,062 MT for the week ending on 6/25, a calendar year high. Shipments were tallied at 128,967 MT, which was a 2026 high. There was 111,164 MT in late reporting for sales and shipments.
Hogs tried to put in some gains this week, with July up 92 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 30 cents this week at $91.48 as of June 30. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw a bounce this week, with a gain of 69 cents on the week to $96.06/cwt. The picnic, ham and belly were the only primals reported higher. Weekly Export Sales data showed 37,629 MT of pork sold for 2026 in the week ending on June 25, that was a 9-week high. Shipments were pegged at 31,796 MT, back down from the week prior.
Cotton futures saw higher trade this week, with December up 74 points. The annual June Acreage report showed all cotton acres this spring planted at 9.85 million, which was above the trade ideas of 9.6 million and the March number at 9.64 million acres. Crop Progress data was released on Monday this week, showing 37% of the US cotton crop squared last Sunday, with 9% setting bolls. Condition ratings dropped 5 percentage points at 48% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index down 10 points to 335. Export Sales from the week of 6/25 were tallied at 49,001 RB for old crop, with 44,117 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 218,753 RB. The Adjusted World Price was back down 194 points to 61.94 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the NASS Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Census trade data will be updated on Tuesday. Weekly EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning. Thursday will see the weekly Export Sales report, with July cotton futures expiring at the close. WASDE and Crop Production data will be released on Friday morning.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn saw some better bottoming action over the course of this week. Tuesdays was an outside day higher, which doesn’t have any major implications, but is not necessarily bearish. Wednesday saw some follow through to the upside, though money flow was exiting the market ahead of the three day weekend on Thursday. The first major resistance was the Bollinger midline at $4.41 ½, which was exceeded for the first time since mid-May. For the bulls, that is a step in the right direction. The next level of resistance is at $4.50 via the upper Bollinger band and the 1/3 speedline off the May high. Getting past that will take some more bull fuel, whether its weather or demand. If they can, the 38.2% Fib retracement resistance is at $4.56 ½. From a technical standpoint the MACD buy signal on a high ADX is friendly towards shifting momentum to the upside.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.