Between the chaos of summer, keeping up with 3 kids, a wife and the market, the July 4th holiday has crept up pretty fast. It just occurred to me that all those tents that have popped up in the last week are going to be busy for the next week to celebrate America’s 250th birthday. Yes, it’s already the middle of summer and the year is nearly halfway through. The market has been working on their version of setting up tents in the last couple weeks, seeing some consolidation as we head into one of the larger USDA report days of the year, while keeping watch over the weather forecasts. June 30 is the market’s version of fireworks as often times there is some sort of volatility. There are times they are duds, though last year was a delayed fuse, with USDA finding all those corn acres in August.
Corn had a back and forth week, with July down 4 ¾ cents, as December slipped just 2 ½ cents. Monday’s Crop Progress data tallied 97% of the US corn crop as emerged by June 21, with 5% listed as silking. Condition ratings were steady at 68% good/excellent, with a 373 rating on the Brugler500 index. EIA showed ethanol production slipping 12,000 barrels per day to 1.09 million bpd in the week of 6/19. Stocks were up 111,000 barrels in that week 24.585 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data indicated old crop corn business at 743,097 MT in the week of June 18, with new crop sales at 735,862 MT in that week. Old crop export commitments are now 99% of the USDA export number at 84.667 MMT. Commitment of Traders data as of 6/23 showed managed money adding another 23,264 contracts to their fresh net short, taking it to 69,691 contracts of futures and options.
The wheat complex was the weak spot for the grains this week. SRW futures were back down 27 1/2 cents in the July contract, with KC wheat 33 cents lower. MPLS spring wheat was 47 ½ cents in the red this week. Crop Progress data from NASS showed 40% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by last Sunday. Conditions were down 1% to 26% good/excellent this week, as the Brugler500 index was down 3 to 264 points. Spring wheat was 16% headed, with ratings back down 1% to 54% of the crop in gd/ex condition, a 351 rating on the Brugler500 index, down 1 point from the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of June 18 showed sales for 2026/27 at 504,489 MT. Total commitments for the new marketing year are at 26% of the USDA export projection at 5.522 MMT, compared to the average pace of 28%. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding to their net short by 1,675 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of June 23 to 71,206 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat flipped back to a net short of 1,285 contracts, a bear move of 8,905 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans saw some buying this week as July was just 3 ½ cents higher, with November up 13 ½ cents. July soybean meal was $5.70 higher on the week, with July bean oil posting a 161 point gain. Crop Progress data this week showed the US soybean crop at 93% emerged by June 21, with blooming listed at 9%. Crop ratings were steady with 66% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, which saw the Brugler500 index at 369, 1 point higher on the week. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 455,405 MT in the week ending on 6/18. New crop business was reported at a marketing year high of 902,159 MT. Export commitments compared to the USDA projection are now 99% complete, at 41.039 MMT. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds slashing another 16,139 contracts from their net long as of June 23, taking it to a new long of just 36,679 contracts of futures and options.
Live cattle were on the steadier trade this week with August down just 80 cents. Cash trade was slow, with late week sales of $258-260, mirroring last week’s sales. August feeder cattle were another $3.25 higher on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $14.85 week/week to $381.86. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker this week, as the Chc/Sel spread was at $19.45. Choice boxes crept to $400 for a day, but failed to hold, up $3.34/cwt on the week to $391.03, as Select was 50 cents lower at $371.58 as of Friday. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds adding another 1,676 contracts to their net long as of June 23, taking it to 126,025 contracts of futures and options in live cattle futures and options. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money was adding 2,104 contracts to a net long of 15,227 contracts.
Hogs still haven’t found footing, as July was down $2.10 on the week, though August was just 15 cents lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 65 cents this week at $91.78 as of June 24. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw continued weakness, with a loss of $1.40 on the week to $95.37/cwt. The ham and rib were the only primals reported higher. USDA’s Hogs and Pigs report showed June 1 hog inventory down 0.04% from last year at 73.664 million head. Hogs kept for breeding were down 1.16% at 5.88 million head, with market hog inventory up just 0.05% to 67.784 million head. The March-May pig crop was up 0.2% to 33.521 million head. Farrowings in that period were down 1.02%. Pork stocks as of May 31 were tallied at 451.92 million lbs according to Cold Storage data, which was up 0.2% from the end of April and 0.26% larger yr/yr. CFTC data showed managed money adding another 4,601 contracts to their now net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 6/23, taking the new net short to 25,560 contracts.
Cotton futures fall back this week, with July down 439 points, as December was 329 points in the red. Crop Progress data was released on Monday this week, showing 92% of the US cotton crop planted by last Sunday, with 27% squared and 5% setting bolls. Condition ratings were up 2 percentage points at 53% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index down 1 point to 345. Export Sales from the week of 6/18 were tallied at 83,864 RB for old crop, with 67,089 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 300,155 RB. Spec traders cut their net long by 3,309 contracts in the week of June 23, taking the position to 38,445 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was back up 151 points to 63.88 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week will be another holiday shortened week at the back end. We start with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the NASS Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Tuesday will be busy with first notice day for July grain futures, as well as June live cattle futures expiring. We will get Quarterly Grain Stocks and the Annual June Acreage report on Tuesday as well. Weekly EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning, with NASS releasing their monthly Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils reports. Thursday will see the weekly Export Sales report. Friday will be closed for Independence Day, which takes place on Saturday
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have put in some bort of bottoming action over the last couple weeks. After falling out of bed in May, November found support at the 2/3 speedline off the January low (black lines), now at $11.26 ¾, helped by some fresh Chinese business. That was associated with a stochastics buy signal, which are now back to neutral. The bounce took things to the 38.2% Fib retracement resistance at $11.56 ¾, after a break of the 1/3 speedline resistance (red lines). Futures held onto several retests of the high side of the speedline as support, breaking back to the 38.2% on Thursday. The 2/3 speedline is at $11.72 and resistance, if futures get help from the USDA next week and can break the 38.2% Fib retracement. MACD says momentum is now in the bulls side, though ADX has backed off to 19, putting less emphasis on the trend following tool.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Getting Ready for the Fireworks. Ag Marketing Report 06/29/2026
Between the chaos of summer, keeping up with 3 kids, a wife and the market, the July 4th holiday has crept up pretty fast. It just occurred to me that all those tents that have popped up in the last week are going to be busy for the next week to celebrate America’s 250th birthday. Yes, it’s already the middle of summer and the year is nearly halfway through. The market has been working on their version of setting up tents in the last couple weeks, seeing some consolidation as we head into one of the larger USDA report days of the year, while keeping watch over the weather forecasts. June 30 is the market’s version of fireworks as often times there is some sort of volatility. There are times they are duds, though last year was a delayed fuse, with USDA finding all those corn acres in August.
Corn had a back and forth week, with July down 4 ¾ cents, as December slipped just 2 ½ cents. Monday’s Crop Progress data tallied 97% of the US corn crop as emerged by June 21, with 5% listed as silking. Condition ratings were steady at 68% good/excellent, with a 373 rating on the Brugler500 index. EIA showed ethanol production slipping 12,000 barrels per day to 1.09 million bpd in the week of 6/19. Stocks were up 111,000 barrels in that week 24.585 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data indicated old crop corn business at 743,097 MT in the week of June 18, with new crop sales at 735,862 MT in that week. Old crop export commitments are now 99% of the USDA export number at 84.667 MMT. Commitment of Traders data as of 6/23 showed managed money adding another 23,264 contracts to their fresh net short, taking it to 69,691 contracts of futures and options.
The wheat complex was the weak spot for the grains this week. SRW futures were back down 27 1/2 cents in the July contract, with KC wheat 33 cents lower. MPLS spring wheat was 47 ½ cents in the red this week. Crop Progress data from NASS showed 40% of the US winter wheat crop harvested by last Sunday. Conditions were down 1% to 26% good/excellent this week, as the Brugler500 index was down 3 to 264 points. Spring wheat was 16% headed, with ratings back down 1% to 54% of the crop in gd/ex condition, a 351 rating on the Brugler500 index, down 1 point from the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of June 18 showed sales for 2026/27 at 504,489 MT. Total commitments for the new marketing year are at 26% of the USDA export projection at 5.522 MMT, compared to the average pace of 28%. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding to their net short by 1,675 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of June 23 to 71,206 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat flipped back to a net short of 1,285 contracts, a bear move of 8,905 contracts as of Tuesday.
Soybeans saw some buying this week as July was just 3 ½ cents higher, with November up 13 ½ cents. July soybean meal was $5.70 higher on the week, with July bean oil posting a 161 point gain. Crop Progress data this week showed the US soybean crop at 93% emerged by June 21, with blooming listed at 9%. Crop ratings were steady with 66% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition, which saw the Brugler500 index at 369, 1 point higher on the week. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 455,405 MT in the week ending on 6/18. New crop business was reported at a marketing year high of 902,159 MT. Export commitments compared to the USDA projection are now 99% complete, at 41.039 MMT. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds slashing another 16,139 contracts from their net long as of June 23, taking it to a new long of just 36,679 contracts of futures and options.
Live cattle were on the steadier trade this week with August down just 80 cents. Cash trade was slow, with late week sales of $258-260, mirroring last week’s sales. August feeder cattle were another $3.25 higher on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $14.85 week/week to $381.86. Wholesale boxed beef prices were weaker this week, as the Chc/Sel spread was at $19.45. Choice boxes crept to $400 for a day, but failed to hold, up $3.34/cwt on the week to $391.03, as Select was 50 cents lower at $371.58 as of Friday. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds adding another 1,676 contracts to their net long as of June 23, taking it to 126,025 contracts of futures and options in live cattle futures and options. In feeder cattle futures and options, managed money was adding 2,104 contracts to a net long of 15,227 contracts.
Hogs still haven’t found footing, as July was down $2.10 on the week, though August was just 15 cents lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 65 cents this week at $91.78 as of June 24. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw continued weakness, with a loss of $1.40 on the week to $95.37/cwt. The ham and rib were the only primals reported higher. USDA’s Hogs and Pigs report showed June 1 hog inventory down 0.04% from last year at 73.664 million head. Hogs kept for breeding were down 1.16% at 5.88 million head, with market hog inventory up just 0.05% to 67.784 million head. The March-May pig crop was up 0.2% to 33.521 million head. Farrowings in that period were down 1.02%. Pork stocks as of May 31 were tallied at 451.92 million lbs according to Cold Storage data, which was up 0.2% from the end of April and 0.26% larger yr/yr. CFTC data showed managed money adding another 4,601 contracts to their now net short position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 6/23, taking the new net short to 25,560 contracts.
Cotton futures fall back this week, with July down 439 points, as December was 329 points in the red. Crop Progress data was released on Monday this week, showing 92% of the US cotton crop planted by last Sunday, with 27% squared and 5% setting bolls. Condition ratings were up 2 percentage points at 53% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index down 1 point to 345. Export Sales from the week of 6/18 were tallied at 83,864 RB for old crop, with 67,089 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 300,155 RB. Spec traders cut their net long by 3,309 contracts in the week of June 23, taking the position to 38,445 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was back up 151 points to 63.88 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week will be another holiday shortened week at the back end. We start with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the NASS Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Tuesday will be busy with first notice day for July grain futures, as well as June live cattle futures expiring. We will get Quarterly Grain Stocks and the Annual June Acreage report on Tuesday as well. Weekly EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning, with NASS releasing their monthly Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils reports. Thursday will see the weekly Export Sales report. Friday will be closed for Independence Day, which takes place on Saturday
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have put in some bort of bottoming action over the last couple weeks. After falling out of bed in May, November found support at the 2/3 speedline off the January low (black lines), now at $11.26 ¾, helped by some fresh Chinese business. That was associated with a stochastics buy signal, which are now back to neutral. The bounce took things to the 38.2% Fib retracement resistance at $11.56 ¾, after a break of the 1/3 speedline resistance (red lines). Futures held onto several retests of the high side of the speedline as support, breaking back to the 38.2% on Thursday. The 2/3 speedline is at $11.72 and resistance, if futures get help from the USDA next week and can break the 38.2% Fib retracement. MACD says momentum is now in the bulls side, though ADX has backed off to 19, putting less emphasis on the trend following tool.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.