About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 18
For the week ended Jun 11, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 400.8 26.9 4992.8 6336.9 4412.4 26.9
hrw 163.5 0.0 1224.2 2452.4 1003.2 0.0
srw -14.7 0.0 753.3 1126.2 684.7 0.0
hrs 108.6 0.0 1480.2 1767.4 1346.6 0.0
white 143.5 26.9 1403.4 905.5 1265.7 26.9
durum 0.0 0.0 131.7 85.4 112.2 0.0
corn 1157.1 519.0 83924.0 66833.2 17610.1 4643.1
soybeans 424.9 304.1 40584.0 49070.9 4035.8 1335.9
soymeal 283.9 120.2 16628.1 14163.5 4207.3 612.5
soyoil 2.2 0.0 375.5 1051.8 30.0 0.3
upland cotton 177.1 188.4 11717.3 11585.5 2283.6 2308.5
pima cotton 5.5 0.0 479.6 455.1 100.4 70.7
sorghum 68.6 0.0 4992.2 1639.3 488.1 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 36.6 55.5 35.0 0.0
rice 100.8 57.6 2568.4 3042.7 408.9 136.4

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat closed higher in both markets as harvest yield reports remain low but as forecasts and reports for improving weather in Wheat areas continue. The crop condition ratings are still among the lowest in over 30 years in HRW areas and have provided some support for prices. Crop conditions should start to show some improvement soon but were lower last week. The Winter Wheat harvest is more than 10% done. USDA showed deteriorating crop conditions this year as rains are now occurring in the central areas of the Great Plains and are forecast to continue. Spring Wheat progress is ahead of normal, and conditions are rated as better than the previous week. Conditions are good in the US Midwest and in much of Europe, but Russia has been too cols. The weather is now featuring mostly dry conditions for parts of the Midwest along with warming temperatures. The WASDE report showed less US production based on a cut in yields. The demand side was left unchanged and ending stocks were reduced to 744 million bushels. The average Farm price was also cut back to 6.00/bu in response to the current price action.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up. Support is at 571, 566, and 560 July, with resistance at 661, 679, and 688 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up. Support is at 614, 608, and 602 July, with resistance at 688, 722, and 750 July. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

RICE:
General Comments Rice closed higher again yesterday on short covering and despite good weather in growing areas. The WASDE report showed an uptick in yields and production for long grain with all Rice left unchanged. Long grain demand was left unchanged and the ending stocks were a little higher. The average farm price was left unchanged at 12.00/cwt for long grain and 13.50 for all Rice. USDA said that Rice planted area would be about 12% less in the coming year. Emergence is ahead of average, and condition was about unchanged last week. Demand remains moderate to poor for US Rice,
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down. Support is at 1176, 1164, and 1152 July and resistance is at 1277, 1301, and 1308 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday on oversold conditions and big rains in parts of the Midwest that are causing flooding in some fields. The WASDE report showed a slight increase in beginning and ending stocks and no other changes. The crop conditions are strong in the Midwest and on news of lower petroleum prices because of the Iran war. Strong emergence progress are reported in reports released by USDA last week Forecasts for good growing conditions continue in the Midwest. Emergence is about normal. Condition is rated to be very good and about the same as the previous week. It looks wet this week. Temperatures in the Midwest should be cool warmer for the next week. Conditions are called good in Argentina and big production is expected there. Oats were lower and trends are down on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 285,775 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 407, 404, and 401 July, and resistance is at 449, 452, and 455 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 295, 289, and 283 July, and resistance is at 367, 377, and 387 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher, and the products were lower yesterday on reports of improved conditions in the Midwest. Rapid planting and emergence progress was shown by USDA this week and reports of good conditions continue. Condition is rated high by USDA in the latest reports. The WASDE report showed no changes from last month. Futures were also lower on the lack of news on China. Cooler temperatures and wet weather are expected for the next week in the Midwest. There is talk that more Soybeans could be planted as Corn planting is more expensive. The big South American harvests are also weighing on prices. There is more talk of Chinese buying interest in US Soybeans this morning.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans and China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 1102, 1090, and 1072 July, and resistance is at 1157, 1173, and 1205 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 301.00, 298.00, and 295.00 July, and resistance is at 326.00, 331.00,and 335.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 7100, 7020, and 6940 July, with resistance at 7840, 7970, and 8080 July.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil closed near unchanged today as good demand was offset by weaker outside markets. Canola was lower yesterday as conditions remain hot and dry in the Prairies but are starting to improve.
Overnight News
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 745.00, 736.00, and 729.00 July, with resistance at 796.00, 802.00, and 808.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4390, 4320, and 4270 August, with resistance at 4580, 4680, and 4730 August.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1140.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1142.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1165.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1182.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1145.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1147.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1170.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1187.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1110.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1040.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 4,510.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 432.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.11)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322