About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher again yesterday. USDA showed that squaring and emergence were running at near or above normal last week and the condition showed moves from poor and good to fair. USDA showed that condition is still well behind year ago levels. The WASDE report on Thursday showed reduced beginning and ending stocks with the rest of the supply and demand data left unchanged. Ending stocks are now estimated at 3.70 million bales. Forecasts and reports of scattered showers in Cotton areas continue for Texas, the Delts, and the Southeast. Temperatures will be variable. Trends are turning up on the daily and weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up. Support is at 75.40, 72.10, and 71.00 July, with resistance of 78.30, 79.10 and 80.00 July.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 18
For the week ended Jun 11, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 177.1 188.4 11717.3 11585.5 2283.6 2308.5
pima cotton 5.5 0.0 479.6 455.1 100.4 70.7

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were a little higher and trends are sztill turning down on the daily and weekly charts. It is still dry in Florida. The weather for the next crop is dry but seasonal and some rains are now being reported. The weather is considered good for production in Mexico but it is dry in Brazil. Scattered showers are still reported in eastern Brazil but many areas are drying out seasonally.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down. Support is at 142.00, 136.00, and 130.00 July, with resistance at 178,00 184.00, and 190.00 July

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were mostly higher yesterday on harvest delays in both Brazil and Vietnam. The next crop is developing well in South America and Asia amid good conditions, but the rain seen lately have pushed the harvest progress behind year ago levels. World production conditions are generally good. Mostly dry conditions are being reported now in Brazil. Mexico is in good condition, as Central America. Vietnam has had some showers but producers are not selling and are waiting for a move higher in prices.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 259.15 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 249.00, 242.00, and 236.00 July, and resistance is at 287.00,2 97.00 and 306.00 July. Trends in London are up. Support is at 3490, 3340, and 3280 July, with resistance at 3730, 3800, and 3950 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were higher again yesterday. The Iran war may have stopped as both sides are ready to sign a memorandum of understanding this week in Geneva. Trends are mixed or down on the daily charts in both markets. There are good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world. Drier weather in parts of Brazil and India have been good for the harvest.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1340, 1310, and 1280 July and resistance is 1550, 1570, and 1600 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 404.00, 398.00, and 392.00 August, with resistance at 457.00, 468.00, and 474.00

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were a little higher yesterday. Daily trends are mixed in both markets, but trends are turning up now. A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year and the lack of demand is expected to continue.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 3830, 3650, and 3490 July, with resistance at 4460, 4780, and 5130 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 2750, 2710, and 2500 July, with resistance at 3350, 3550, and 3690 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322