Let The Oil Flow. The Energy Report 06/15/2026

Oil prices plummeted overnight with WTI dipping below $80 a barrel briefly after President Trump on Truth Social posted “ The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow! President DONALD J. TRUMP”.
The move is boosting optimism over supplies, as the Trump administration helped free more than 100 million barrels from the Strait of Hormuz last month and got tankers moving again. That success could ease near-term supply concerns, though bulls still see plenty of market risk — a point the Wall Street Journal highlighted today.
The WSJ says that even with President Trump’s deal with Iran set to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, it will likely take months for the U.S. and global oil markets to replenish critically depleted inventories — keeping prices elevated in the near term. They point out that for more than 15 weeks, the U.S. and other nations have been drawing heavily from tanks, salt caverns, and strategic reserves to offset millions of barrels trapped behind the strait. Stocks are now nearing critical levels, and energy executives warn that without a swift influx of supply, prices will have to surge to curb demand.
They point out a warning from Mike Wirth, CEO of Chevron that has repeatedly warned on television that the supply crunch will soon hit markets worldwide. Also, Neil Chapman, senior VP at Exxon Mobil: The U.S. is approaching “unheard-of inventory levels.” Physical oil prices could rise as high as $150 or $160 a barrel once limits at key hubs are reached. “You can debate whether that’s going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. But once you get to that point, then you’ll see prices shoot up.” The quote Wil VanLoh of Quantum Capital Group: “It’s going to get ugly… The world has never had to destroy 10 million barrels a day of oil demand,” referring to production blocked from global markets.
They point out that since late March, the U.S. has drawn about 66 million barrels. The Trump administration authorized 172 million barrels total. At the current pace, this draw could be exhausted by early September, bringing inventories down to a historically low 243 million barrels. The SPR peaked at over 700 million in 2009. Further draws would limit the U.S. response to future disruptions or hurricanes.
They also warn that Cushing, OK Storage Hub stock inventories have fallen to 21 million barrels (down ~1 million last week). At roughly 20 million barrels, operators face complications — tanks typically need 10-15% capacity for smooth operations due to outlet placement and sludge buildup. “Whenever you get to tank bottoms, the whole operation gets bogged down,” said John Auers of RBN Energy.  They warn that even after reopening, mine removal, cautious shipping/insurance, and the time needed to rebuild inventories will keep upward pressure on prices. The deal also sets the stage for complex nuclear negotiations ahead, with longer-term strait security still uncertain.
Yet the market still is not buying into that fear as it sees other dynamics at play. U.S. oil prices plunged more than 5% today, with WTI crude dropping below $80 a barrel and touching two-month lows. That’s a stunning 26%+ decline from the early April highs above $119 amid the Iran tensions. This is a clear vote of confidence in U.S. leadership, military superiority, and energy dominance. The market is looking beyond the headlines and focusing on the bigger picture: America is managing this crisis better than anyone expected, with production and exports hitting all-time highs. We’re not just weathering the storm — we’re powering through it and coming out stronger. U.S. production and exports have reached record levels, with the U.S. becoming the world’s top oil exporter for the third consecutive month and shipping 10.5 million barrels per day in May.
That’s dwarfing Russia and Saudi Arabia even with global disruptions. Shale innovation, deregulation, and the Permian powerhouse are delivering — proving once again that American energy is the most reliable force on the planet. Oh, sure maybe this can’t go on forever, but the market seems to understand that you can’t bet against US energy or the US military or real leadership.
The Trump team countered Iran’s Strait threats with bold operations aimed at keeping oil flowing and pressuring Iran’s economy. With U.S. military support, more than 100 million barrels moved and over 200 commercial ships safely transited the Strait of Hormuz. The effort underscores U.S. capability and resolve in protecting global energy lanes — and that work continues.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright Leading the Charge: Secretary Wright has been crystal clear — the administration does not foresee a major price spike. Traffic through the Strait is “rising very meaningfully” and will continue to expand. We’re “solving the challenge,” and reopening the Strait (even if the full deal takes time) will get things moving fast. U.S. resolve is turning potential chaos into opportunity.
Pump Prices Falling for Weeks: Great news for American drivers — gasoline prices have dropped for multiple straight weeks, with the national average now providing real summer relief. Markets are pricing in de-escalation and abundant U.S. supply. According to the latest AAA data, national average gas prices have fallen due to increased supply. Regular unleaded now averages $4.065, down from $4.074 yesterday, $4.164 a week ago, and $4.528 a month ago. Mid-grade stands at $4.545 (vs. $4.573 yesterday), premium at $4.932 (vs. $4.952), diesel at $5.197 (vs. $5.219), and E85 at $3.135 (vs. $3.144). While prices remain well above year-ago levels, the recent downward trend reflects stronger supply availability easing pump pressures for drivers
Remember the backwardation in the oil curve predicted This outcome as smart money saw it coming. The back end of the futures curve (far-month contracts) stayed relatively stable and much lower than near-term prices — a classic steep backwardation signaling that traders expected these disruptions to be temporary. The market has long bet on U.S. strength delivering a quick normalization, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing play out. This confounds the bearish doom-and-gloom trades and rewards those positioned for American resilience.
This price pullback isn’t weakness — it’s validation of U.S. energy dominance, military effectiveness, and smart diplomacy under pressure. Even if skeptics like some oil execs question the exact flow timelines, the fundamentals are rock solid: Record U.S. output, strategic wins squeezing adversaries, and a clear path to reopening flows. Expect volatility to ease further as the Strait normalizes. America is in the driver’s seat — lower prices ahead, stronger economy, and energy independence shining bright. Keep the faith in U.S. power; the curve was right all along.  Don’t bet against  American energy producers who are delivering for the nation.
Nat gas is pulling back after a bit of a cool down. Last week’s EIA report showed a solid build of +108 Bcf (above expectations and the 5-year average), while Fox Weather predicts a shift toward warmer conditions that could boost cooling demand soon. Futures traded around the $3.00–$3.15 range recently (July contract near $3.03–$3.14 area as of mid-June), giving back some gains as milder near-term temperatures tempered power burn expectations despite the start of summer cooling season. Robust U.S. production (on track for records in 2026) and comfortable storage levels continue to cap upside. EIA’s latest STEO notes growing output from associated gas in oil plays, keeping inventories supportive. Hotter weather forecasts for late June and into July should lift gas-fired power generation (already ~40% of U.S. electricity). LNG exports remain a structural tailwind. Prices pulled back on the cooler snap and storage data but hold above recent lows. Watch for any heat dome developments or production dips. Fox Weather Outlook: After a recent cool-down period keeping demand light-to-moderate, the pattern is expected to turn warmer than normal across much of the U.S. through late June and beyond. This should increase air conditioning loads and power sector demand for natural gas, supporting prices as we head deeper into summer. Keep an eye on any lingering systems in the Plains or Southeast that could modulate the heat.
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