Grains Report 06/12/2026

DJ USDA Report: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
Office of the Chief Economist
Agricultural Marketing Service
Farm Service Agency
Economic Research Service
Foreign Agricultural Service
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
JUNE 11, 2026
“WASDE – 672
WHEAT: The U.S. wheat outlook for 2026/27 projects smaller supplies and, with no other changes to the balance sheet, lower ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on decreased output as all wheat production is projected at 1,543 million bushels, down 18 million from last month largely on smaller Hard Red Winter wheat production. The all wheat yield is down 0.5 bushels per acre to 47.0 bushels. Exports are unchanged at 775 million bushels, down 15 percent from the prior year. Projected ending stocks are reduced 18 million bushels to 744 million, 20 percent below the previous year. The 2026/27 season-average farm price is projected $0.50 per bushel lower this month to $6.00 based on expectations of futures and cash prices for the marketing year.
All categories of the 2026/27 global wheat balance sheet are raised this month. Supplies are projected up 1.7 million tons to 1,100 million, mainly on increased production for Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine, which is partly offset by lower production in Australia and Pakistan. Total wheat production in Russia is raised 2.0 million tons to 88.0 million as near-ideal weather conditions and above-average rainfall support a higher yield forecast for winter wheat despite a reduction in spring wheat harvested area. Production in Turkey is raised 1.5 million tons to a record 22.5 million and Ukraine is raised 0.5 million to 23.5 million, both based on favorable spring weather. In Australia, production is lowered 2.0 million tons to 28.0 million on lower harvested area as indicated by the latest ABARES quarterly report.
Global consumption is raised 1.4 million tons to 824.6 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use in Russia. World trade is 0.3 million tons higher at 212.0 million on increased exports for Ukraine and other countries partially offset by lower exports for Australia. Projected 2026/27 global ending stocks are raised 0.4 million tons to 275.4 million mostly on increases for Egypt and Turkey that are partially offset by lower stocks in Ukraine, Australia, Russia, and the United States.
COARSE GRAINS: The 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook is virtually unchanged relative to last month. Fractionally higher beginning and ending stocks for 2026/27 reflect mostly offsetting trade and domestic use changes for 2025/26 with adjustments to imports, corn used for ethanol, and exports based on data to date. The 2026/27 season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.40 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2026/27 is forecast 5.8 million tons higher to 1.594 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher, reflecting an area increase for India. For 2025/26, corn production is raised for India, Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay but lowered for Mexico. For India, production is higher based on the latest information from the government that indicates a sharp increase in area and higher yield. Brazil is increased reflecting a boost in production expectations for the first and second crops. Argentina is raised with increases to both area and yield based on reporting from in-country sources, which indicate larger area and favorable harvest results to date. Foreign barley production for 2026/27 is slightly higher, reflecting larger crops for Turkey and Ukraine that are partly offset by a reduction for India.
Major global trade changes for 2026/27 include larger corn exports for India and South Africa. Imports are raised for Mexico, Egypt, and the Philippines but lowered for Turkey. For 2025/26, corn exports are raised for India, the United States, Russia, South Africa and Paraguay. Imports are raised for Mexico, Algeria, and Egypt but lowered for Thailand. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2026/27 are higher reflecting increases for India, Argentina, and South Africa that are partly offset by a reduction for Brazil. Global corn ending stocks, at 281.2 million tons, are up 3.7 million from last month.
RICE: The outlook for 2026/27 U.S. rice this month is for slightly higher supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and slightly higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased beginning stocks with reduced 2025/26 exports (all long-grain) only partially offset by lower 2025/26 imports (all medium- and short-grain). With no changes to 2025/26 domestic use, the net-supply increase raises 2025/26 ending stocks by 0.5 million cwt to 54.8 million, the highest since 1985/86. The 2026/27 season-average farm price (SAFP) for all rice is unchanged at $13.50 per cwt, compared to a revised 2025/26 SAFP of $12.50.
The 2026/27 global rice outlook this month is for slightly lower supplies and consumption, unchanged trade, and minimally higher ending stocks. Supplies are lowered 0.1 million tons to 734.0 million, on reduced beginning stocks for Iraq and Vietnam. Global 2026/27 production is unchanged this month at 537.8 million tons, but 2025/26 production is raised by 1.9 million to 544.7 million. This is mainly on India, where the Government’s Third Advanced Estimate is raised to a record 154.0 million tons. World 2026/27 consumption is lowered 0.2 million tons to 541.2 million, on reductions for Iraq and Vietnam. Global 2026/27 trade is unchanged at a record 63.0 million tons. Projected 2026/27 world ending stocks are raised 0.1 million tons to 192.8 million, as higher stocks for Cambodia are mostly offset by reductions for Bangladesh and other countries.
OILSEEDS: U.S. 2026/27 soybean supply, use, and price projections are unchanged this month. For 2025/26, soybean crush is raised on higher soybean meal exports and domestic disappearance. Soybean oil for biofuel use is raised for 2025/26 while exports are lowered. Soybean exports for 2025/26 are reduced based on available U.S. Census data, offsetting the increase in crush and resulting in unchanged ending stocks. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2026/27 is forecast at $11.40 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $310 per short ton and 70 cents per pound, respectively.
Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2026/27 include higher beginning stocks, lower production, and higher ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised mainly on higher production for Argentina in the prior marketing year, which is raised 2 million tons to 50 million. Soybean production for 2026/27 is lowered 0.2 million tons on reduced harvested area for Russia. Exports are unchanged with lower exports for Russia offset by higher exports for Argentina. Global soybean ending stocks for 2026/27 are raised 0.1 million tons to 124.9 million mainly on higher stocks for Argentina.
SUGAR: Beet sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 4.939 million short tons, raw value (STRV), an increase of 217,100 over last month. Area harvested at 1.038 million acres is unchanged from last month, but national yield is increased to 31.94 tons/acre, up from 30.21 tons last month, on the basis of more area planted before mid-May than projected last month. Based on processors’ estimates, sugar from desugared molasses is projected at 400,000 STRV, an increase of 25,000 STRV and beet shrink is increased to 8.12 percent. Florida cane sugar production is increased 36,800 STRV to 1.979 million on processors’ reassessment of the effect of the February freeze on sugarcane yield and on good growing conditions this spring. Louisiana cane sugar production is unchanged. Imports at 3.260 million STRV are unchanged from last month. Deliveries for human consumption are increased 125,500 STRV to 12.385 million based on stronger domestic deliveries and direct consumption imports during the first 7 months of the fiscal year than originally forecast. Ending stocks are residually projected at 1.785 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.27 percent.
Mexico sugar production for 2026/27 is based on FAS Mexico City Post forecasts. Sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 5.283 million metric tons (MT), about a 1.0 percent increase over the previous year. Seasonal rains during mid-2025 alleviated drought conditions but a better recovery is constrained by pressures in agricultural inputs markets, especially fertilizer prices and other input costs, that imply relatively lower yields. Area harvested is projected at 748,000 hectares (ha), up from 2025/26 and yield is expected at 65.6 MT/ha. Deliveries for human consumption are down about two percent relative to last year resulting from 2026 tax increases on sweetened beverages. Ending stocks are projected at 1.063 million MT and include 150,000 MT of below 99.2 percent polarity sugar available for export to the United States in the first quarter of the 2027/28 marketing year. Exports are residually projected at 1.198 million MT: 894,788 MT to the U.S. market under license (unchanged from last month) and 303,325 to other destinations not under license.

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Jun 11
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
26/27 25/26 24/25: 26/27 25/26 24/25: 26/27 25/26 24/25
Soybeans 310.0 340.0 325.0:189.22 186.75 184.06:441.34 429.20 427.93
Brazil na na na:117.50 115.00 103.14:186.00 180.00 172.50
Argentina na na na: 6.20 9.00 7.87: 50.00 50.00 51.11
China na na na: 0.10 0.12 0.07: 21.00 20.90 20.65
Soyoil 1,877 1,837 1,747: 14.49 14.32 15.26: 74.69 72.09 70.06
Corn 1,960 2,145 1,551:207.61 217.00 187.13: 1,300 1,327 1,233
China na na na: 0.02 0.02 0.00:307.00 301.24 294.92
Argentina na na na: 38.00 43.00 29.07: 55.00 61.00 49.00
S.Africa na na na: 2.20 3.10 2.05: 16.50 17.70 17.27
Cotton(a) 3.70 4.20 4.00: 43.32 44.38 42.43:116.04 122.66 119.34
All Wheat 744 935 855:211.95 226.70 210.46:820.06 844.36 799.31
China na na na: 1.00 1.00 1.02:141.00 140.07 140.10
European
Union na na na: 31.00 31.00 27.92:136.00 145.11 121.06
Canada na na na: 28.00 30.00 29.35: 35.00 39.96 35.94
Argentina na na na: 14.50 18.50 13.31: 21.00 27.92 18.51
Australia na na na: 22.00 25.00 23.65: 28.00 35.99 34.11
Russia na na na: 47.00 48.00 43.00: 88.00 90.30 81.60
Ukraine na na na: 14.00 14.00 15.75: 23.50 24.10 23.40
Sorghum 34.0 37.0 40.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 65.0 62.0 69.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 26.0 29.0 28.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 42.8 54.8 53.9: 63.01 60.38 61.51:537.82 544.74 542.03

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jun 12
Winnipeg — The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the period that ended June 7, 2026. Figures in thousands of metric
tons. Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Wheat Durum Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 1811.6 469.5 240.1 301.0 38.1 936.5 239.1 194.0 4801.6
Week Ago 1853.5 465.8 254.2 288.2 49.5 734.0 253.9 221.6 4646.8
Year Ago 2722.8 511.2 251.3 336.3 37.7 1632.2 498.5 75.2 7092.2
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 479.1 97.1 26.5 50.9 7.2 543.3 27.1 33.9 1301.0
Week Ago 423.8 101.5 27.9 42.7 6.4 392.1 27.2 24.7 1089.0
To Date 21913.0 5436.6 2049.2 4434.1 203.7 17644.8 2730.0 717.0 59329.8
Year Ago 21623.7 5324.3 2180.7 3257.6 140.5 17196.9 2242.1 680.8 55869.3
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 445.2 117.5 5.4 34.2 0.0 108.2 16.0 35.2 812.2
Week Ago 603.9 59.0 9.9 15.5 1.7 251.1 40.7 41.0 1041.0
To Date 22257.3 6051.4 372.0 3067.9 87.7 8211.7 2236.6 936.9 49497.8
Year Ago 21438.3 5742.3 492.4 1815.2 40.9 9354.0 1747.5 2543.1 48918.8
EXPORTS
This Week 473.3 36.1 20.5 8.2 15.1 117.8 4.4 36.4 728.6
Week Ago 514.8 60.3 20.3 20.8 29.1 252.3 12.2 20.2 1010.2
To Date 19481.4 4982.9 899.1 3092.3 87.4 7546.4 2192.5 634.9 44029.3
Year Ago 18993.0 4989.0 1238.4 1755.9 70.5 8682.1 1728.4 2678.7 44943.0
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 93.5 39.5 19.4 19.3 1.2 236.0 3.7 43.1 464.3
Week Ago 115.0 35.7 23.1 21.5 1.6 227.5 7.8 20.2 473.2
To Date 3785.6 1010.2 721.8 1088.9 57.0 10568.8 202.5 940.9 19846.4
Year Ago 4103.2 637.0 818.1 1318.9 44.1 9828.1 185.3 970.7 19492.5
Source: Glacier FarmMedia (news@marketsfarm.com)

DJ World’s Food Supply Imperiled by Iran War, Fertilizer Manufacturer Fertiglobe Chief Says — Interview
By Adam Whittaker
Conflict in the Middle East is threatening to spike grain prices and exacerbate hunger among the world’s poor, the chief executive of fertilizer manufacturer Fertiglobe says.
Global governments need to step up efforts to get fertilizer moving through the Persian Gulf and offer financial support for farmers to help offset the jump in prices, Ahmed El-Hoshy said in an interview.
Fertiglobe, majority owned by Abu Dhabi state oil company Adnoc, uses natural gas to produce fertilizers. The prices for ammonia and urea fertilizers have jumped since the conflict began, when supply from the Middle East fell and the energy supply shock sent gas prices soaring. Nitrogen fertilizers-like ammonia and urea-are particularly important for boosting yields of crops like corn, wheat and rice.
With the Strait effectively closed, Fertiglobe has been trucking some of its product from the strait by road to other regional ports, but not enough to fully offset the hit to supply. Some 30% of urea exports aren’t leaving the region, El-Hoshy said. Gas prices have also risen after facilities in the Middle East were hit, pushing costs up for producers globally.
Fertiglobe has continued to produce fertilizer at a facility in Abu Dhabi and has been storing it at different locations. It also has significant production facilities away from the strait that continue to operate.
Failure to get fertilizer supplies moving or provide financial support risks worsening food shortages and triggering higher grain prices that could take time to come down, El-Hoshy said.
Overall, there is optimism that a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran is close to being completed. President Trump and Iranian state media have both said in recent days that the strait could open up as soon as an agreement is signed.
The prospect of the waterway reopening was enough to send Brent crude futures below $90 a barrel Friday, but investors remain wary. Previous talks have stalled despite Trump saying a deal was imminent.
Fertilizers are responsible for producing the calories for around half of the world’s 8 billion people, El-Hoshy estimates. With some fertilizer supply trapped in the strait and prices elsewhere high, there is a risk farmers will cut usage, depressing crop yields and tightening agricultural supply.
His comments echo warnings from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, which said last month an impending systemic agrifood shock could trigger a severe global food price crisis.
European Union authorities said Friday they would provide 540 million euros-around $625 million-in financial support for farmers in the bloc to buy fertilizers, citing the need to ensure food security amid sharply rising costs.
Still, the impact of the conflict on fertilizer and agriculture markets is best described as “a tragedy unfolding in slow motion,” analysts at ING wrote in a recent note.
Farmers in the Southern Hemisphere are disproportionately affected, given they are currently planting crops and have limited access to the credit or government support needed to buy fertilizer. Higher fuel prices also threaten to eat away at farmers’ margins, El-Hoshy said.
There’s been talk but not enough action to be able to deal with the risks of this continuing for a longer period of time, he said.
The time-lag effect makes the situation dangerous given it can take months for supply leaving the region to reach farmers, and missing a key planting season in the Southern Hemisphere risks hitting crop yields months in the future, El-Hoshy said.
Farmers in sub-Sahara Africa, Latin America and India are especially reliant on imports and might have to go without nitrogen fertilizers, he said.
In some lower socioeconomic countries, food production could fall.
“And that, with growing populations, could be extremely problematic,” El-Hoshy said.

\WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat closed lower in both markets yesterday as forecasts and reports for improving weather in Wheat areas continue. The crop condition ratings are the lowest in over 30 years in HRW areas and have provided some support for prices. Crop conditions should start to show some improvement soon but were lower last week. The Winter Wheat harvest is more than 10% done. USDA showed deteriorating crop conditions this year as rains are now occurring in the central areas of the Great Plains and are forecast to continue. Spring Wheat progress is ahead of normal, and conditions are rated as better than the previous week. Conditions are good in the US Midwest and in much of Europe, but Russia has been too cols. The weather is now featuring mostly dry conditions for parts of the Midwest along with warming temperatures. The WASDE report showed less US production based on a cut in yields. The demand side was left unchanged and ending stocks were reduced to 744 million bushels. The average Farm price was also cut back to 6.00/bu in response to the current price action.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down. Support is at 576, 572, and 566 July, with resistance at 661, 679, and 688 July. Trends in Kansas City are down. Support is at 614, 608, and 602 July, with resistance at 688, 722, and 750 July. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

RICE:
General Comments Rice closed lower again yesterday on good weather in growing areas. The WASDE report showed an uptick in yields and production for long grain with all Rice left unchanged. Long grain demand was lefzt unchanged and the ending stocks were a little higher. The average farm price was left unchanged at 12.00/cwt for long grain and 13.50 for all Rice. USDA said that Rice planted area would be about 12% less in the coming year. Emergence is ahead of average, and condition slipped a little last week. Demand remains moderate to poor for US Rice,
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1215, 1188, and 1176 July and resistance is at 1277, 1301, and 1308 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower again yesterday on rains in the Midwest and despite a neutral WASDE report. The report showed a slight increase in beginning and ending stocks and no other changes. The crop conditions are strong in the Midwest and on news of lower petroleum prices because of the Iran war. Strong planting and emergence progress are reported in reports released by USDA last week and forecasts for good growing conditions continue in the Midwest. Planting has been very active in all of the Midwest and is now almost done. Emergence is about normal. Condition is rated to be very good and about the same as the previous week. It looks dry this week. Temperatures in the Midwest should be turn warmer for the next week. Conditions are called good in Argentina and big production is expected there. Oats were a little lower and trends are down on the weekly charts. The WASDE report showed slight decreases in beginning and ending stocks and no other changes.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 410, 407, and 404 July, and resistance is at 449, 452, and 455 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 307, 301, and 295 July, and resistance is at 367, 377, and 387 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower and Soybean Meal was higher yesterday on reports of improved conditions in the Midwest. Rapid planting and emergence progress was shown by USDA this week and reports of good conditions continue. Condition is rated high by USDA in the latest reports, but down a stick from the previous week. The WASDE report showed no changes from last month. Futures were also lower on the lack of news on China. Cooler temperatures are expected for the next week in the Midwest. There is talk that more Soybeans could be planted as Corn planting is more expensive. The big South American harvests are also weighing on prices.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 1112, 1090, and 1072 July, and resistance is at 1157, 1173, and 1205 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 301.00, 298.00, and 295.00 July, and resistance is at 326.00, 331.00,and 335.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 7290, 7100, and 7020 July, with resistance at 7840, 7970, and 8080 July.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today along on weakness in petroleum markets and Canola was higher as conditions remain hot and dry in the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 745.00, 736.00, and 729.00 July, with resistance at 796.00, 802.00, and 808.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4390, 4320, and 4270 August, with resistance at 4580, 4680, and 4730 August.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1140.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1145.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1170.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1182.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1145.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1150.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1175.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1197.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1110.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1030.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 4,470.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 428.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.053)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322