Softs Report 06/12/2026

DJ World’s Food Supply Imperiled by Iran War, Fertilizer Manufacturer Fertiglobe Chief Says — Interview
By Adam Whittaker
Conflict in the Middle East is threatening to spike grain prices and exacerbate hunger among the world’s poor, the chief executive of fertilizer manufacturer Fertiglobe says.
Global governments need to step up efforts to get fertilizer moving through the Persian Gulf and offer financial support for farmers to help offset the jump in prices, Ahmed El-Hoshy said in an interview.
Fertiglobe, majority owned by Abu Dhabi state oil company Adnoc, uses natural gas to produce fertilizers. The prices for ammonia and urea fertilizers have jumped since the conflict began, when supply from the Middle East fell and the energy supply shock sent gas prices soaring. Nitrogen fertilizers-like ammonia and urea-are particularly important for boosting yields of crops like corn, wheat and rice.
With the Strait effectively closed, Fertiglobe has been trucking some of its product from the strait by road to other regional ports, but not enough to fully offset the hit to supply. Some 30% of urea exports aren’t leaving the region, El-Hoshy said. Gas prices have also risen after facilities in the Middle East were hit, pushing costs up for producers globally.
Fertiglobe has continued to produce fertilizer at a facility in Abu Dhabi and has been storing it at different locations. It also has significant production facilities away from the strait that continue to operate.
Failure to get fertilizer supplies moving or provide financial support risks worsening food shortages and triggering higher grain prices that could take time to come down, El-Hoshy said.
Overall, there is optimism that a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran is close to being completed. President Trump and Iranian state media have both said in recent days that the strait could open up as soon as an agreement is signed.
The prospect of the waterway reopening was enough to send Brent crude futures below $90 a barrel Friday, but investors remain wary. Previous talks have stalled despite Trump saying a deal was imminent.
Fertilizers are responsible for producing the calories for around half of the world’s 8 billion people, El-Hoshy estimates. With some fertilizer supply trapped in the strait and prices elsewhere high, there is a risk farmers will cut usage, depressing crop yields and tightening agricultural supply.
His comments echo warnings from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, which said last month an impending systemic agrifood shock could trigger a severe global food price crisis.
European Union authorities said Friday they would provide 540 million euros-around $625 million-in financial support for farmers in the bloc to buy fertilizers, citing the need to ensure food security amid sharply rising costs.
Still, the impact of the conflict on fertilizer and agriculture markets is best described as “a tragedy unfolding in slow motion,” analysts at ING wrote in a recent note.
Farmers in the Southern Hemisphere are disproportionately affected, given they are currently planting crops and have limited access to the credit or government support needed to buy fertilizer. Higher fuel prices also threaten to eat away at farmers’ margins, El-Hoshy said.
There’s been talk but not enough action to be able to deal with the risks of this continuing for a longer period of time, he said.
The time-lag effect makes the situation dangerous given it can take months for supply leaving the region to reach farmers, and missing a key planting season in the Southern Hemisphere risks hitting crop yields months in the future, El-Hoshy said.
Farmers in sub-Sahara Africa, Latin America and India are especially reliant on imports and might have to go without nitrogen fertilizers, he said.
In some lower socioeconomic countries, food production could fall.
“And that, with growing populations, could be extremely problematic,” El-Hoshy said.

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday in consolidation trading and despite improving weather for Cotton growing areas of the US. The WASDE report showed reduced beginning and ending stocks with the rest of the supply and demand data left unchanged. Endimg stocks are now estimated at 3.70 million bales. USDA showed that squaring and emergence were running at near or above normal last week and the weather has improved with increased precipitation for all areas. USDA showed that condition is well behind year ago levels. Forecasts and reports of scattered showers in Cotton areas continue for Texas, the Delts, and the Southeast. Temperatures will be variable. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 71.00, 70.40, and 70.00 July, with resistance of 76.00, 78.30 and 79.10 July.

DJ USDA Report: World Agricultural Supply and Demand
COTTON: The 2026/27 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows reduced beginning and ending stocks, due to a 200,000-bale decrease from the previous year. Production, consumption, and trade forecasts are unchanged this month, and the projected season-average price remains at 73 cents per pound.
Exports for 2025/26 are now projected at 12.20 million bales, an increase of 200,000 from last month, while mill use is reduced 50,000 bales to 1.55 million. As a result, ending stocks are now forecast at 4.20 million bales, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 31 percent. The 2025/26 season-average farm price remains estimated at 63 cents per pound.
World cotton supply for 2026/27 is slightly lower due to reduced beginning stocks. Production remains at 116.0 million bales, with trade marginally down. Consumption edges up to 121.8 million bales, driven by increased demand from China despite declines for Bangladesh, Pakistan, and South Korea. Ending stocks for 2026/27 are reduced slightly this month to 71.1 million bales, mainly because of lower beginning stocks.
For 2025/26, higher world exports reduce ending stocks, with global production and use largely unchanged. Exports are raised by over 1 percent, led by Brazil, the United States, Kazakhstan, and Turkey. Global production is increased by 15,000 bales due to Egypt, offsetting Argentina’s decline. Consumption is lowered 25,000 bales as decreases in several countries outweigh gains in China and Vietnam. Ending stocks are reduced by more than 600,000 bales, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio to 64 percent.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were little changed and trends are still mixed on the daily charts. It is still dry in Florida. The weather for the next crop is dry but seasonal and some rains are now being reported. The weather is considered good for production in Mexico but it is dry in Brazil. Scattered showers are still reported in eastern Brazil but many areas are drying out seasonally.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down. Support is at 148.00, 142.00, and 136.00 July, with resistance at 178,00 184.00, and 190.00 July

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday. The next crop is developing well in South America and Asia amid good conditions. The harvest ib Brazil is a little behind last year. World production conditions are generally good. Mostly dry conditions are being reported now in Brazil. Mexico is in good condition, as Central America. Vietnam has had drier weather and conditions there are called good. Some showers are starting to appear there.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 241.31 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 242.00, 236.00, and 230.00 July, and resistance is at 262.00, 390.00 and 287.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 3250, 3180, and 3120 July, with resistance at 3610, 3650, and 3680 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was lower and London was higher yesterday. The Iran has increased world petroleum prices and could divert demand from Sugar production to production of ethanol. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in both markets. There are good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world. Drier weather in parts of Brazil and India have been good for the harvest.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1370, 1340, and 1310 July and resistance is 1550, 1570, and 1600 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 404.00, 398.00, and 392.00 August, with resistance at 457.00, 468.00, and 474.00 SUGAR: Beet sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 4.939 million short tons, raw value (STRV), an increase of 217,100 over last month. Area harvested at 1.038 million acres is unchanged from last month, but national yield is increased to 31.94 tons/acre, up from 30.21 tons last month, on the basis of more area planted before mid-May than projected last month. Based on processors’ estimates, sugar from desugared molasses is projected at 400,000 STRV, an increase of 25,000 STRV and beet shrink is increased to 8.12 percent. Florida cane sugar production is increased 36,800 STRV to 1.979 million on processors’ reassessment of the effect of the February freeze on sugarcane yield and on good growing conditions this spring. Louisiana cane sugar production is unchanged. Imports at 3.260 million STRV are unchanged from last month. Deliveries for human consumption are increased 125,500 STRV to 12.385 million based on stronger domestic deliveries and direct consumption imports during the first 7 months of the fiscal year than originally forecast. Ending stocks are residually projected at 1.785 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.27 percent.
Mexico sugar production for 2026/27 is based on FAS Mexico City Post forecasts. Sugar production for 2026/27 is projected at 5.283 million metric tons (MT), about a 1.0 percent increase over the previous year. Seasonal rains during mid-2025 alleviated drought conditions but a better recovery is constrained by pressures in agricultural inputs markets, especially fertilizer prices and other input costs, that imply relatively lower yields. Area harvested is projected at 748,000 hectares (ha), up from 2025/26 and yield is expected at 65.6 MT/ha. Deliveries for human consumption are down about two percent relative to last year resulting from 2026 tax increases on sweetened beverages. Ending stocks are projected at 1.063 million MT and include 150,000 MT of below 99.2 percent polarity sugar available for export to the United States in the first quarter of the 2027/28 marketing year. Exports are residually projected at 1.198 million MT: 894,788 MT to the U.S. market under license (unchanged from last month) and 303,325 to other destinations not under license.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were a little lower yesterday. Daily trends are mixed to down in both markets, with New York showing the weaker chart pattern. A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year and the lack of demand is expected to continue.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 3830, 3650, and 3490 July, with resistance at 4460, 4780, and 5130 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 2750, 2710, and 2500 July, with resistance at 3350, 3550, and 3690 July.

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