About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. 2026 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA May USDA 2025
Corn Production 15,991 15,852-16,082 15,995 17,021
Corn Yield 183.0 181.5-184.0 183.0 186.5
Soybean Production 4,433 4,405-4,436 4,435 4,262
Soybean Yield 53.0 52.5-53.0 53.0 53.0
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2025-26
Average Range USDA May
Corn 2,146 2,087-2,297 2,142
Soybeans 336 320-350 340
Wheat 942 924-980 935
2026-27
Average Range USDA May
Corn 1,957 1,857-2,119 1,957
Soybeans 309 293-342 310
Wheat 760 734-796 762
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2025-26
Average Range USDA May
Corn 298.1 296.0-300.0 297.0
Soybeans 125.7 124.5-127.0 125.1
Wheat 279.4 278.7-280.0 279.2
2026-27
Average Range USDA May
Corn 278.5 275.0-281.0 277.5
Soybeans 125.3 124.0-127.0 124.8
Wheat 274.8 272.3-276.8 275.0
****
2026-27 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA May USDA 2025-26
All Wheat 1,554 1,525-1,603 1,561 1,985
Winter Wheat 1,040 1,015-1,071 1,048 1,402
Hard Red Winter 507 485-525 515 804
Soft Red Winter 302 291-315 301 353
White Winter 230 222-233 232 244
****
2025-26 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 135.7 135.0-137.0 135.0
Soybeans 180.4 180.0-182.0 180.0
2025-26 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 61.3 60.0-62.0 59.0
Soybeans 48.6 48.0-49.5 48.0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat closed higher in both markets again yesterday on ideas that futures were oversold and despite forecasts and reports for improving weather in Wheat areas. The crop condition ratings are the lowest in over 30 years in HRW areas and have provided some support for prices. Crop conditions should start to show some improvement soon but were lower last week. The Winter Wheat harvest is more than 10% done. USDA showed deteriorating crop conditions this year as rains are now occurring in the central areas of the Great Plains and are forecast to continue. Spring Wheat progress is ahead of normal, and conditions are rated as better than the previous week. Conditions are good in the US Midwest and in much of Europe, but Russia has been too cols. The weather is now featuring mostly dry conditions for parts of the Midwest along with warming temperatures.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down. Support is at 576, 572, and 566 July, with resistance at 661, 679, and 688 July. Trends in Kansas City are down. Support is at 614, 608, and 602 July, with resistance at 688, 722, and 750 July. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

RICE:
General Comments Rice closed a little lower yesterday on good weather in growing areas and despite ideas of sharply reduced planted and harvested area in the US. Production was cut back mostly due to reduced planted and harvested area. Yields were actually held high in the USDA estimates. Traders anticipate less production this year in the US and around the world due to low prices. USDA said that Rice planted area would be about 12% less in the coming year. Emergence is ahead of average, and condition slipped a little last week. Demand remains moderate to poor for US Rice,
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1215, 1188, and 1176 July and resistance is at 1277, 1301, and 1308 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jun 10
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.66 8.52 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 13.36 8.81 0.00
Brokens 9.67 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 49.06/18.81 6.88
Medium Grain/Short Grain 57.70/11.40 6.82

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading and ideas that futures were very oversold. The crop conditions are strong in the Midwest and on news of lower petroleum prices because of the Iran war. Strong planting and emergence progress are reported in reports released by USDA last week and forecasts for good growing conditions continue in the Midwest. Planting has been very active in all of the Midwest and is now almost done. Emergence is about normal. Condition is rated to be very good and about the same as the previous week. It looks dry this week. Temperatures in the Midwest should be turn warmer for the next week. Conditions are called good in Argentina and big production is expected there. Oats were a little higher and trends are down on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 120,000- tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 410, 407, and 404 July, and resistance is at 449, 452, and 455 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 307, 301, and 295 July, and resistance is at 367, 377, and 387 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower and Soybean Oil was higher yesterday on reports of improved conditions in the Midwest. Rapid planting and emergence progress was shown by USDA this week and reports of good conditions continue. Condition is rated high by USDA in the latest reports, but down a stick from the previous week. Futures were also lower on the lack of news on China and Iran although the war in Iran was hotter over the weekend. Temperatures have been cool in the Midwest. Warm temperatures are expected for the next week. There is talk that more Soybeans could be planted as Corn planting is more expensive. The big South American harvests are also weighing on prices.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 1112, 1090, and 1072 July, and resistance is at 1157, 1173, and 1205 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 304.00, 301.00, and 298.00 July, and resistance is at 326.00, 331.00,and 335.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 7290, 7100, and 7020 July, with resistance at 7840, 7970, and 8080 July.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today along on reports of stzronger export demand and Canola was higher as conditions remain hot and dry in the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 745.00, 736.00, and 729.00 July, with resistance at 796.00, 802.00, and 808.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4390, 4320, and 4270 August, with resistance at 4580, 4680, and 4730 August.

DJ Malaysia’s May Palm Oil Exports 1.11M Tons; Down 14% on Month, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 14% on month at 1.11 million metric tons in May, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the May crop data and revised numbers for April, issued by MPOB:
May April Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,516,327 1,629,801 Dn 6.96%
Palm Oil Exports 1,105,760 1,292,568 Dn 14.45%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 86,424 110,461 Dn 21.76%
Palm Oil Imports 43,816 75,846 Dn 42.23%
Closing Stocks 2,427,835 2,308,944 Up 5.15%
Crude Palm Oil 1,284,544 1,264,333 Up 1.6%
Processed Palm Oil 1,143,291 1,044,611 Up 9.45%

DJ Malaysia June 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Rose 4.9% on Month to 376,971 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports for June 1-10 are estimated to have risen 4.9% from the previous month to 376,971 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
June 1-10 May 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 57,010 62,020
RBD Palm Oil 22,685 37,350
RBD Palm Stearin 29,538 26,895
Crude Palm Oil 146,723 90,603
Total* 376,971 359,453
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1150.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1155.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1180.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1200.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1155.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1160.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1185.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1205.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1112.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1037.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 4,500.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 431.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.062)

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322