Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with NFIB Busines Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., ADP Employment Change Weekly at 7:15 A.M., Balance of Trade, Exports & Imports at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 Months at 8:20 A.M., Existing Home Sales, Existing Home Sales MoM, and Wholesale Inventories MoM at 9:00 A.M., 52-Week Bill Auction and 6-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
Last week Argentina released a schedule of future export tax cuts. The latest export-tax cuts are market-relevent but not immediately bearish enough to reset global grain or oilseed balance sheets. A summary of the changes released by the USDA?FAS says Decree 423/2026 immediately lowers wheat and barley export taxes from 7.5% to 5.5%, while phased reductions for soybeans, soy products, corn, sorghum, and sunflower begin in January 2027 and run through December 2028, subject to Argentina’s fiscal conditions. Soybean taxes are scheduled to fall from now 24% to 21% by Dec 2027 and 15% by Dec2028; corn and sorghum drop from 8.5% to 5.%5. The near-term impact is most direct for wheat/barley planting, where lower taxes may cushion poor margins and limit acreage losses. The longer-term potential impact is that better Argentine farm returns raise future acreage, farmer selling, and export competitiveness.
Ag Resource Brazilian Cash Corn Market Discussion
Brazilian Cash Corn Market Preps for Safrinha Harvest:
Cash corn prices in Brazil have followed normal seasonal trends lower, and ARC in this evening’s report details how sizable portion of the world’s exportable corn surplus is harvested from April to September. Bottoms are typically found in Brazil’s interior corn market in early July. ARC projects 2026 to be similar. Brazil’s cash corn index on Monday settled at $209/MT ($5.30/Bu), a new 5-month low, and which is unchanged exactly from early June a year ago. Cash ethanol prices in Brazil are also extracting premium amid large ethanol output as feedstock supply replenishment lies ahead. Brazil’s cash ethanol market similarly posts its annual low between June & July.For now, there is no shortage of reasonably price corn/feed globally. It’s after summer when the speed at which inventories are drawn down becomes important.
2026 South American Corn Supply & Demand
Peak South American corn harvesting is just ahead. Exporter cash corn markets remained well supplied, amid broadly non-threatening weather in US, Canada, Europe, Black Sea, and China, price recoveries through the balance of June will be challenged unless China shows up early for US grain. And ARC doubts any Chinese buying of US grain emerges until the back part of summer. The Argentine corn harvest last week reached 41% complete, vs. 40% on average. 60% of Argentina’s crop, or some 37MMT’s, will be gathered in the next 45 days. Safrinha corn harvesting in Mato Grosso last week was 6% complete, vs. 7% on average in early June. Northern Brazil’s safrinha harvest will move swiftly from mid-June to mid-July. There will be no panic or urgency on behalf of importers or end users with respect to cover summer & early autumn supply needs. Weather, vegetation health and yield data continue to support ideas calling for all-time record South American corn production in 2026. Vegetation in early June was above average in all of Brazil, and was at or above last year in northern Mato Grosso, Parana, Mato Grosso & Sao Paulo. Argentina’s cumulative yield at 40% harvested is 8.27 MT/HA, up 3.3% year-over-year, the best since 2021., and which supports final production of 61-65 MMT’s. USDA projects Argentine corn production this year at 59 MMT’s, and as of early May for whatever reason maintained a national yield below the previous year. Argentine corn production in 2025 totaled just 50 MMT’s. A sizable jump in South America’s exportable surplus lies ahead. South American harvest will be completed in August and will be quickly followed by harvest across the Southern US. ARC’s updated combined Argentine + Brazilian corn balance sheet shows: Production is maintained at a record 200 MMT’s (64 in Argentina, 136 in Brazil). Domestic use expands another 6 MMT’s on Brazil’s ethanol industry buildout, and rising mandated blend volume there. However, South America’s exportable corn rises to a new record 89 MMT’s, up 17.7 MMT’s (700 Mil Bu) on the previous year. Argentine exporters will stay aggressive. ARC expects half of this to be absorbed by enlarged importer demand. The default position for US export disappearance in 26/27 contraction of 100-300 Mil Bu. But Chinese demand will more than offset this when it appears. Cash corn markets will feel heavy during the summer as physical pipelines are refilled. This is typical seasonally. However, weakness will be leveraged with long-term end user purcgases, and ARC reiterates growth in total global corn demand has been impressive in the last 12 months.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Stable Ahead of June WASDE; US Crop Rating Unchanged:
Selling in corn paused as charts become deeply oversold and issues surrounding future costs of production remain in place. Corn supplies will be abundant during summer, but there is limited room for US yield loss or South American seeding in Sep/Oct, and overall some measure of weather risk premium must be built into values into mid-July. July CBOT’s break to $4.125 was overdone from a technical standpoint, and clients should be prepared for a more two-sided trade through the remainder of the month. The US crop this week is rated at 67% GD/EX, unchanged from the previous week and 3 points below the longer-term average. Weekly improvement was recorded in ND, PA & KY. Deterioration was recorded in NC and TX. Below-average crop health across the S Plains and in OH & NC keeps national ratings lower than previously expected. Yet, ARC notes crop ratings mean little to potential until July. July below $4.10 is a buy. However, rallies will be confined to 8-15 cents amid incoming Midwest moisture boosts and lack of sustained heat in June. Breaks will be used to work into longer term end user coverage.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
2026 Corn Synopsis Before June WASDE. The Corn & Ethanol Report 06/09/2026
We kickoff the day with NFIB Busines Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., ADP Employment Change Weekly at 7:15 A.M., Balance of Trade, Exports & Imports at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 Months at 8:20 A.M., Existing Home Sales, Existing Home Sales MoM, and Wholesale Inventories MoM at 9:00 A.M., 52-Week Bill Auction and 6-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
Last week Argentina released a schedule of future export tax cuts. The latest export-tax cuts are market-relevent but not immediately bearish enough to reset global grain or oilseed balance sheets. A summary of the changes released by the USDA?FAS says Decree 423/2026 immediately lowers wheat and barley export taxes from 7.5% to 5.5%, while phased reductions for soybeans, soy products, corn, sorghum, and sunflower begin in January 2027 and run through December 2028, subject to Argentina’s fiscal conditions. Soybean taxes are scheduled to fall from now 24% to 21% by Dec 2027 and 15% by Dec2028; corn and sorghum drop from 8.5% to 5.%5. The near-term impact is most direct for wheat/barley planting, where lower taxes may cushion poor margins and limit acreage losses. The longer-term potential impact is that better Argentine farm returns raise future acreage, farmer selling, and export competitiveness.
Ag Resource Brazilian Cash Corn Market Discussion
Brazilian Cash Corn Market Preps for Safrinha Harvest:
Cash corn prices in Brazil have followed normal seasonal trends lower, and ARC in this evening’s report details how sizable portion of the world’s exportable corn surplus is harvested from April to September. Bottoms are typically found in Brazil’s interior corn market in early July. ARC projects 2026 to be similar. Brazil’s cash corn index on Monday settled at $209/MT ($5.30/Bu), a new 5-month low, and which is unchanged exactly from early June a year ago. Cash ethanol prices in Brazil are also extracting premium amid large ethanol output as feedstock supply replenishment lies ahead. Brazil’s cash ethanol market similarly posts its annual low between June & July.For now, there is no shortage of reasonably price corn/feed globally. It’s after summer when the speed at which inventories are drawn down becomes important.
2026 South American Corn Supply & Demand
Peak South American corn harvesting is just ahead. Exporter cash corn markets remained well supplied, amid broadly non-threatening weather in US, Canada, Europe, Black Sea, and China, price recoveries through the balance of June will be challenged unless China shows up early for US grain. And ARC doubts any Chinese buying of US grain emerges until the back part of summer. The Argentine corn harvest last week reached 41% complete, vs. 40% on average. 60% of Argentina’s crop, or some 37MMT’s, will be gathered in the next 45 days. Safrinha corn harvesting in Mato Grosso last week was 6% complete, vs. 7% on average in early June. Northern Brazil’s safrinha harvest will move swiftly from mid-June to mid-July. There will be no panic or urgency on behalf of importers or end users with respect to cover summer & early autumn supply needs. Weather, vegetation health and yield data continue to support ideas calling for all-time record South American corn production in 2026. Vegetation in early June was above average in all of Brazil, and was at or above last year in northern Mato Grosso, Parana, Mato Grosso & Sao Paulo. Argentina’s cumulative yield at 40% harvested is 8.27 MT/HA, up 3.3% year-over-year, the best since 2021., and which supports final production of 61-65 MMT’s. USDA projects Argentine corn production this year at 59 MMT’s, and as of early May for whatever reason maintained a national yield below the previous year. Argentine corn production in 2025 totaled just 50 MMT’s. A sizable jump in South America’s exportable surplus lies ahead. South American harvest will be completed in August and will be quickly followed by harvest across the Southern US. ARC’s updated combined Argentine + Brazilian corn balance sheet shows: Production is maintained at a record 200 MMT’s (64 in Argentina, 136 in Brazil). Domestic use expands another 6 MMT’s on Brazil’s ethanol industry buildout, and rising mandated blend volume there. However, South America’s exportable corn rises to a new record 89 MMT’s, up 17.7 MMT’s (700 Mil Bu) on the previous year. Argentine exporters will stay aggressive. ARC expects half of this to be absorbed by enlarged importer demand. The default position for US export disappearance in 26/27 contraction of 100-300 Mil Bu. But Chinese demand will more than offset this when it appears. Cash corn markets will feel heavy during the summer as physical pipelines are refilled. This is typical seasonally. However, weakness will be leveraged with long-term end user purcgases, and ARC reiterates growth in total global corn demand has been impressive in the last 12 months.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Stable Ahead of June WASDE; US Crop Rating Unchanged:
Selling in corn paused as charts become deeply oversold and issues surrounding future costs of production remain in place. Corn supplies will be abundant during summer, but there is limited room for US yield loss or South American seeding in Sep/Oct, and overall some measure of weather risk premium must be built into values into mid-July. July CBOT’s break to $4.125 was overdone from a technical standpoint, and clients should be prepared for a more two-sided trade through the remainder of the month. The US crop this week is rated at 67% GD/EX, unchanged from the previous week and 3 points below the longer-term average. Weekly improvement was recorded in ND, PA & KY. Deterioration was recorded in NC and TX. Below-average crop health across the S Plains and in OH & NC keeps national ratings lower than previously expected. Yet, ARC notes crop ratings mean little to potential until July. July below $4.10 is a buy. However, rallies will be confined to 8-15 cents amid incoming Midwest moisture boosts and lack of sustained heat in June. Breaks will be used to work into longer term end user coverage.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374