Going back to grade school, there was one game/tool teachers always used to get us from point A to point B. Since the beginning of March, the market has been taking a page out of that play book. With the crude oil market rallying on the initial attacks in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the rising tide lifted all boats of the grain market. However, now that there is reportedly an agreement between the two countries to reopen the Strait (still pending the President’s approval as of Friday afternoon), the tide is going out. July crude fell 9.5% and dragged the grains along with it. Even though the fundamentals haven’t largely changed, prices were under pressure most of the short week. That goes without mentioning China and the White House Fact sheet of $17 billion in ag purchases from a couple weeks ago. That story has largely been worked in, but who knows, maybe they’re waiting to buy the dip.
Corn pulled back to the April low this week with July falling 16 ½ cents on the 4-day week. December slipped 11 ½ cents. Weekly Crop Progress data indicated 86% of the US corn crop planted as of May 24, still running ahead of the 83% average pace. Emergence was at 60%. EIA indicated ethanol production back down 22,000 barrels per day in the week of 5/22, to 1.089 million bpd. Stocks rose 93,000 barrels in that week 24.968 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at just 1.015 MMT in the week of May 21. New crop sales were 618,594 MT in that week. Commitment of Traders data as of 5/26 tallied managed money at a net long of 205,504 contracts of futures and options in corn, an 87,850 contract reduction on the week.
The wheat complex was under pressure for much of the week, facing sharp losses. Chicago was the leader to the downside, with a 35 ¾ cent loss this week. July KC wheat was down 32 ¼ cents from the previous Friday. MPLS spring wheat fell 25 ¾ cents on the week. NASS Crop Progress data from Tuesday showed 79% of the US winter wheat crop headed. Conditions were down another 1% to 26% good/excellent this week, as the Brugler500 index (100-500 weighted scale) was down 3 to 268 points. Spring wheat was 89% planted and 56% emerged. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of May 21 was a net cancellation of 807,348 MT for old crop, with net sales of 1.058 MMT for new crop. Some of that was likely rolled to the next marketing year. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding back to their net short by 13,907 contracts to 4,799 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of May 26. Spec traders in KC wheat trimmed back 3,205 contracts from their net long position at 26,870 contracts.
Soybeans saw a modest correction this week, as July was down 9 ¾ cents on the week, with November 2 1/4 cents higher. July soybean meal was down $2.10/ton, with July bean oil up 374 points. Crop Progress data tallied the US soybean crop at 79% planted by May 24, well above the 68% 5-year average, with emergence listed at 49%. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 299,899 MT in the week ending on 5/21. New crop business was reported at 137,708 contracts. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds cutting back 18,252 contracts from their net long as of May 26, taking it to 189,552 contracts of futures and options.
Live cattle bounced around this week, as the June contract back down $1.05. Cash trade was softer this week at $255-258 across the country. August feeder cattle lost $1.42 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $5.20 week/week to $373.40. Thursday’s update from APHIS showed a total of 2,072 active cases of new world screwworm in Mexico as of Wednesday. There were 182 active cases in the bordering state of Tamaulipas, 105 active in Nuevo Leon, and 19 in Coahuila. The closest case was 55 miles from the US border. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread was back at a $8.29 premium to Choice. Choice boxes were up $1.20/cwt on the week to $390.47, as Select was $1.82 (-0.5%) lower at $383.18 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 4.9% below the same holiday shortened week last year at 402.5 million lbs. Year to date production is down 6.6% on a 9.2% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data showed live cattle spec traders at a net long of 120,569 contracts of futures and options as of Tuesday, trimming 9,544 contracts from the week prior. Managed money in feeder cattle were busy dropping the net long by 5,785 contracts to the smallest net long since the fall of 2024 at 10,595 contracts.
Hogs faded the early week strength by Friday, to close with June up just a dime on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down 15 cents this week at $90.92 as of May 27. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw some strength out of the Memorial Day weekend, up $3.19 on the week to $99.45/cwt. Weekly pork production was up 0.8% from the same Memorial Day week last year at 467.6 million lbs. Production so far this year is up slightly above last year on a 0.8% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 20,728 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 5/26, taking the total to 12,985 contracts.
Cotton was on the mixed side this week seeing some new crop spreading, with July down 127 points and December 26 points higher. Crop Progress data was released on Tuesday this week, showing 53% of the US cotton crop planted by last Sunday, matching the normal planting pace. Export Sales from the week of 5/21 were tallied at 153,622 RB for old crop, with 112,041 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 317,706 RB. Spec traders cut back a portion of their net long by 7,845 contracts in the week of 5/26, taking the position to 54,200 contracts. The Adjusted World Price fell another 519 points to 63.49 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week starts out with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the weekly NASS Crop Progress report out in the afternoon. We will also get the monthly Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils reports from NASS on Monday afternoon. EIA data will be released on Wednesday per normal, due to the Monday holiday. Weekly Export Sales data will be published on Thursday morning. June live cattle options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November Soybeans held up surprisingly well despite the rest of the grains weakness. Going back to the March low, there is a rising regression channel that has held the last couple spike attempts with lower boundary support at $11.78 ¾. The upper boundary resistance is at $12.15. The lower boundary also has an uptrend line off the April low at $11.79. Beyond that, Nov has support at the 1/3 speedline off the Jan low at 11.73, with the 40-day moving average at $11.73 ½ and an uptrend off the March low at $11.72. The latter is also part of the an ascending triangle that was breached to the upside back at the beginning of May. The count is $12.30, with bears rejecting the last couple attempts to reach it. MACD says to be bearish, but ADX at 15 says to watch the oscillators, which are stuck in neutral.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Follow the Leader. Ag Marketing Report 06/01/2026
Going back to grade school, there was one game/tool teachers always used to get us from point A to point B. Since the beginning of March, the market has been taking a page out of that play book. With the crude oil market rallying on the initial attacks in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the rising tide lifted all boats of the grain market. However, now that there is reportedly an agreement between the two countries to reopen the Strait (still pending the President’s approval as of Friday afternoon), the tide is going out. July crude fell 9.5% and dragged the grains along with it. Even though the fundamentals haven’t largely changed, prices were under pressure most of the short week. That goes without mentioning China and the White House Fact sheet of $17 billion in ag purchases from a couple weeks ago. That story has largely been worked in, but who knows, maybe they’re waiting to buy the dip.
Corn pulled back to the April low this week with July falling 16 ½ cents on the 4-day week. December slipped 11 ½ cents. Weekly Crop Progress data indicated 86% of the US corn crop planted as of May 24, still running ahead of the 83% average pace. Emergence was at 60%. EIA indicated ethanol production back down 22,000 barrels per day in the week of 5/22, to 1.089 million bpd. Stocks rose 93,000 barrels in that week 24.968 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at just 1.015 MMT in the week of May 21. New crop sales were 618,594 MT in that week. Commitment of Traders data as of 5/26 tallied managed money at a net long of 205,504 contracts of futures and options in corn, an 87,850 contract reduction on the week.
The wheat complex was under pressure for much of the week, facing sharp losses. Chicago was the leader to the downside, with a 35 ¾ cent loss this week. July KC wheat was down 32 ¼ cents from the previous Friday. MPLS spring wheat fell 25 ¾ cents on the week. NASS Crop Progress data from Tuesday showed 79% of the US winter wheat crop headed. Conditions were down another 1% to 26% good/excellent this week, as the Brugler500 index (100-500 weighted scale) was down 3 to 268 points. Spring wheat was 89% planted and 56% emerged. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of May 21 was a net cancellation of 807,348 MT for old crop, with net sales of 1.058 MMT for new crop. Some of that was likely rolled to the next marketing year. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding back to their net short by 13,907 contracts to 4,799 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of May 26. Spec traders in KC wheat trimmed back 3,205 contracts from their net long position at 26,870 contracts.
Soybeans saw a modest correction this week, as July was down 9 ¾ cents on the week, with November 2 1/4 cents higher. July soybean meal was down $2.10/ton, with July bean oil up 374 points. Crop Progress data tallied the US soybean crop at 79% planted by May 24, well above the 68% 5-year average, with emergence listed at 49%. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 299,899 MT in the week ending on 5/21. New crop business was reported at 137,708 contracts. The weekly Commitment of Traders report indicated spec funds cutting back 18,252 contracts from their net long as of May 26, taking it to 189,552 contracts of futures and options.
Live cattle bounced around this week, as the June contract back down $1.05. Cash trade was softer this week at $255-258 across the country. August feeder cattle lost $1.42 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $5.20 week/week to $373.40. Thursday’s update from APHIS showed a total of 2,072 active cases of new world screwworm in Mexico as of Wednesday. There were 182 active cases in the bordering state of Tamaulipas, 105 active in Nuevo Leon, and 19 in Coahuila. The closest case was 55 miles from the US border. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread was back at a $8.29 premium to Choice. Choice boxes were up $1.20/cwt on the week to $390.47, as Select was $1.82 (-0.5%) lower at $383.18 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 4.9% below the same holiday shortened week last year at 402.5 million lbs. Year to date production is down 6.6% on a 9.2% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data showed live cattle spec traders at a net long of 120,569 contracts of futures and options as of Tuesday, trimming 9,544 contracts from the week prior. Managed money in feeder cattle were busy dropping the net long by 5,785 contracts to the smallest net long since the fall of 2024 at 10,595 contracts.
Hogs faded the early week strength by Friday, to close with June up just a dime on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down 15 cents this week at $90.92 as of May 27. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw some strength out of the Memorial Day weekend, up $3.19 on the week to $99.45/cwt. Weekly pork production was up 0.8% from the same Memorial Day week last year at 467.6 million lbs. Production so far this year is up slightly above last year on a 0.8% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 20,728 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 5/26, taking the total to 12,985 contracts.
Cotton was on the mixed side this week seeing some new crop spreading, with July down 127 points and December 26 points higher. Crop Progress data was released on Tuesday this week, showing 53% of the US cotton crop planted by last Sunday, matching the normal planting pace. Export Sales from the week of 5/21 were tallied at 153,622 RB for old crop, with 112,041 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 317,706 RB. Spec traders cut back a portion of their net long by 7,845 contracts in the week of 5/26, taking the position to 54,200 contracts. The Adjusted World Price fell another 519 points to 63.49 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week starts out with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the weekly NASS Crop Progress report out in the afternoon. We will also get the monthly Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils reports from NASS on Monday afternoon. EIA data will be released on Wednesday per normal, due to the Monday holiday. Weekly Export Sales data will be published on Thursday morning. June live cattle options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November Soybeans held up surprisingly well despite the rest of the grains weakness. Going back to the March low, there is a rising regression channel that has held the last couple spike attempts with lower boundary support at $11.78 ¾. The upper boundary resistance is at $12.15. The lower boundary also has an uptrend line off the April low at $11.79. Beyond that, Nov has support at the 1/3 speedline off the Jan low at 11.73, with the 40-day moving average at $11.73 ½ and an uptrend off the March low at $11.72. The latter is also part of the an ascending triangle that was breached to the upside back at the beginning of May. The count is $12.30, with bears rejecting the last couple attempts to reach it. MACD says to be bearish, but ADX at 15 says to watch the oscillators, which are stuck in neutral.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.