They say patience is a virtue. When it comes to the market the patience can wear as thin as me trying to get my youngest child to listen to me. After falling apart from lack of any details in the US/China meeting last week, things corrected back early this week on the news that China is expected to buy $17 billion of US ag goods, on top off the soybean purchases. The market quickly took note of that and shot higher on Sunday night. However, with no action from China this week via sales or confirmation of the $17 billion figure, nervous bulls started creeping out. The attention quickly shifted back to crude oil and some less than threatening forecasts by the end of the week, as the impatient market looks to find the next shinty story to play with.
Corn saw a modest recovery this week, as July was back up 7 1/2 cents, with December 5 ½ cents in the green. A White House fact sheet from last weekend pegged Chinese purchases of ag goods for the next 3 years at $17 billion per, giving the market an early spark. Crop Progress data showed 76% of the US corn crop planted as of May 17, still running ahead of the 70% average pace. Emergence was at 39%. EIA indicated ethanol production back up 29,000 barrels per day in the week of 5/15, to 1.111 million bpd. Stocks were up just 5,000 barrels in that week 24.875 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at a 17-week high of 2.125 MMT in the week of May 14. Commitment of Traders data as of 5/12 tallied managed money at a net long of 293,354 contracts of futures and options in corn, a 6,129 contract reduction on the week.
The wheat complex was mixed this week as the KC market gave back some premium. Chicago was up 10 ½ cents on the week, with MPLS spring wheat 4 ¼ cents higher this week. July Kansas City was 6 cents lower. NASS Crop Progress data from Monday showed 71% of the US winter wheat crop headed. Conditions were down 1% to 27% good/excellent this week, as the Brugler500 index (100-500 weighted scale) was down 6 to 271 points. Spring wheat was 73% planted and 39% emerged. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of May 14 was 166,342 MT for old crop, with 130,488 MT for new crop. Commitments of Traders showed managed money cutting back their net short by 14,224 contracts to 4,799 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of May 19. Spec traders in KC wheat trimmed back 7,715 contracts from their net long position at 30,075 contracts.
Soybeans were firming this week, with July up 19 ½ cents this week and November 17 cents higher. July soybean meal was down $2.40/ton, with July bean oil up 10 points. More news out of the weeknd via a White House fact sheet pegging Chinese purchases of ag goods for the next 3 years at $17 billion per year (in addition to the 25 MMT in soybean commitments) was supportive. The weekly Crop Progress report showed the US soybean crop at 67% planted by May 17, well above the 53% 5-year average, with emergence listed at 32%. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 351,423 MT in the week ending on 5/14. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders cutting back 7,011 contracts from their net long of 207,804 contracts by Tuesday.
Live cattle corrected back lower on the week, with the June contract back down $4.60. Cash trade was firmer this week at $260-265 across the country. Cargill’s Fort Morgan, CO, beef plant initiated a lockout this week in ongoing negotiations with employees. The 4,700 capacity plant has been offline since April due to the bargaining. August feeder cattle lost $11.60 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $1.89 week/week to $368.20. Thursday’s update from APHIS showed a total of 2,014 active cases of new world screwworm in Mexico as of Wednesday. There were 150 active cases in the bordering state of Tamaulipas, 94 active in Nuevo Leon, and 15 in Coahuila. The closest case was 57 miles from the US border. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread was back at a $5.27 premium to Choice. Choice boxes were up $1.02/cwt on the week to $30.27, as Select was $4.25 (-1.1%) lower at $385.00 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 1.3% below the week prior and down 5.4% from the same week last year at 474.4 million lbs. Year to date production is down 6.6% on a 9.2% drop in slaughter. Cattle on Feed data showed April placements at 1.702 million head, up 5.52% vs. last year. Marketings were down 10.03% from a year ago at 1.642 million head. May 1 on feed inventory was tallied at 11.584 million head, up 1.83% yr/yr. April 30 beef stocks were pegged at 408.34 million lbs via the monthly Cold Storage report. That was up just 0.34% vs. the end of March and down 2.6% from last year.
Hogs were lower this week, down $3 in the June contract. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up 59 cents this week at $91.07 as of May 20. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down $1.30 over the course of the Friday/Friday move at $96.26/cwt. The belly primal was the main driver, down $15.78, with the ham the only other primal reported lower. Weekly pork production was down 1.5% from last week at 507.0 million lbs, which is still 0.2% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is up slightly above last year on a 0.8% drop in slaughter. Pork stocks were tallied at 435.79 million lbs at the end of April according to Cold Storage data. That was down 4.47% from last year, but an 8.7% increase from the end of March. CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 7,147 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 5/19, taking the total to 33,713 contracts.
Cotton was extending the correction this week, with July falling 318 points, as December was down 258. A White House fact sheet from last weekend pegged Chinese purchases of ag goods for the next 3 years at $17 billion per, was supportive early but quickly faded off. Crop Progress data was released on Monday, showing 41% of the US cotton crop planted by Sunday, 1 point ahead of normal. Export Sales from the week of 5/14 were tallied at 131,792 RB for old crop, with 215,962 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 289,351 RB. Spec traders extended their new net long of by another 2,475 contracts in the week of 5/19, taking the position to 62,045 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was back down 319 points to 68.68 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
The market and government will be closed on Monday due to Memorial Day. Tuesday will start things with the Export Inspections report, as the weekly NASS Crop Progress report will be out that afternoon. EIA data will be released on Thursday, due to the Monday holiday. Weekly Export Sales data will be published a day late, on Friday morning.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn faded the bullish start to the week, slipping below some late support late in the week at the close. After spiking both the 40-day moving average at $4.86 ½ and the 1/3 speedline at $4.90 last week the bears completed the objective this week, breaking below both by Thursday and holding the close on Friday. That leaves the 38.2% Fib retracement support at $4.83, with an uptrend at $4.81. Thus far that uptrend remains intact. However, MACD just got triggered bearish last week. If the bears decide to make a break for it, the next 5 cents is key to holding support.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Patience. Ag Marketing Report 05/26/2026
They say patience is a virtue. When it comes to the market the patience can wear as thin as me trying to get my youngest child to listen to me. After falling apart from lack of any details in the US/China meeting last week, things corrected back early this week on the news that China is expected to buy $17 billion of US ag goods, on top off the soybean purchases. The market quickly took note of that and shot higher on Sunday night. However, with no action from China this week via sales or confirmation of the $17 billion figure, nervous bulls started creeping out. The attention quickly shifted back to crude oil and some less than threatening forecasts by the end of the week, as the impatient market looks to find the next shinty story to play with.
Corn saw a modest recovery this week, as July was back up 7 1/2 cents, with December 5 ½ cents in the green. A White House fact sheet from last weekend pegged Chinese purchases of ag goods for the next 3 years at $17 billion per, giving the market an early spark. Crop Progress data showed 76% of the US corn crop planted as of May 17, still running ahead of the 70% average pace. Emergence was at 39%. EIA indicated ethanol production back up 29,000 barrels per day in the week of 5/15, to 1.111 million bpd. Stocks were up just 5,000 barrels in that week 24.875 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at a 17-week high of 2.125 MMT in the week of May 14. Commitment of Traders data as of 5/12 tallied managed money at a net long of 293,354 contracts of futures and options in corn, a 6,129 contract reduction on the week.
The wheat complex was mixed this week as the KC market gave back some premium. Chicago was up 10 ½ cents on the week, with MPLS spring wheat 4 ¼ cents higher this week. July Kansas City was 6 cents lower. NASS Crop Progress data from Monday showed 71% of the US winter wheat crop headed. Conditions were down 1% to 27% good/excellent this week, as the Brugler500 index (100-500 weighted scale) was down 6 to 271 points. Spring wheat was 73% planted and 39% emerged. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of May 14 was 166,342 MT for old crop, with 130,488 MT for new crop. Commitments of Traders showed managed money cutting back their net short by 14,224 contracts to 4,799 contracts of futures and options in CBT wheat as of May 19. Spec traders in KC wheat trimmed back 7,715 contracts from their net long position at 30,075 contracts.
Soybeans were firming this week, with July up 19 ½ cents this week and November 17 cents higher. July soybean meal was down $2.40/ton, with July bean oil up 10 points. More news out of the weeknd via a White House fact sheet pegging Chinese purchases of ag goods for the next 3 years at $17 billion per year (in addition to the 25 MMT in soybean commitments) was supportive. The weekly Crop Progress report showed the US soybean crop at 67% planted by May 17, well above the 53% 5-year average, with emergence listed at 32%. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 351,423 MT in the week ending on 5/14. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders cutting back 7,011 contracts from their net long of 207,804 contracts by Tuesday.
Live cattle corrected back lower on the week, with the June contract back down $4.60. Cash trade was firmer this week at $260-265 across the country. Cargill’s Fort Morgan, CO, beef plant initiated a lockout this week in ongoing negotiations with employees. The 4,700 capacity plant has been offline since April due to the bargaining. August feeder cattle lost $11.60 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $1.89 week/week to $368.20. Thursday’s update from APHIS showed a total of 2,014 active cases of new world screwworm in Mexico as of Wednesday. There were 150 active cases in the bordering state of Tamaulipas, 94 active in Nuevo Leon, and 15 in Coahuila. The closest case was 57 miles from the US border. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this week, as the Chc/Sel spread was back at a $5.27 premium to Choice. Choice boxes were up $1.02/cwt on the week to $30.27, as Select was $4.25 (-1.1%) lower at $385.00 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 1.3% below the week prior and down 5.4% from the same week last year at 474.4 million lbs. Year to date production is down 6.6% on a 9.2% drop in slaughter. Cattle on Feed data showed April placements at 1.702 million head, up 5.52% vs. last year. Marketings were down 10.03% from a year ago at 1.642 million head. May 1 on feed inventory was tallied at 11.584 million head, up 1.83% yr/yr. April 30 beef stocks were pegged at 408.34 million lbs via the monthly Cold Storage report. That was up just 0.34% vs. the end of March and down 2.6% from last year.
Hogs were lower this week, down $3 in the June contract. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up 59 cents this week at $91.07 as of May 20. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down $1.30 over the course of the Friday/Friday move at $96.26/cwt. The belly primal was the main driver, down $15.78, with the ham the only other primal reported lower. Weekly pork production was down 1.5% from last week at 507.0 million lbs, which is still 0.2% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is up slightly above last year on a 0.8% drop in slaughter. Pork stocks were tallied at 435.79 million lbs at the end of April according to Cold Storage data. That was down 4.47% from last year, but an 8.7% increase from the end of March. CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 7,147 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 5/19, taking the total to 33,713 contracts.
Cotton was extending the correction this week, with July falling 318 points, as December was down 258. A White House fact sheet from last weekend pegged Chinese purchases of ag goods for the next 3 years at $17 billion per, was supportive early but quickly faded off. Crop Progress data was released on Monday, showing 41% of the US cotton crop planted by Sunday, 1 point ahead of normal. Export Sales from the week of 5/14 were tallied at 131,792 RB for old crop, with 215,962 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 289,351 RB. Spec traders extended their new net long of by another 2,475 contracts in the week of 5/19, taking the position to 62,045 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was back down 319 points to 68.68 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
The market and government will be closed on Monday due to Memorial Day. Tuesday will start things with the Export Inspections report, as the weekly NASS Crop Progress report will be out that afternoon. EIA data will be released on Thursday, due to the Monday holiday. Weekly Export Sales data will be published a day late, on Friday morning.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn faded the bullish start to the week, slipping below some late support late in the week at the close. After spiking both the 40-day moving average at $4.86 ½ and the 1/3 speedline at $4.90 last week the bears completed the objective this week, breaking below both by Thursday and holding the close on Friday. That leaves the 38.2% Fib retracement support at $4.83, with an uptrend at $4.81. Thus far that uptrend remains intact. However, MACD just got triggered bearish last week. If the bears decide to make a break for it, the next 5 cents is key to holding support.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.