Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, CB Leading Index MoM, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final,, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Final at 9:00 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 10:00 A.M., nd Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M.
Energy prices continue to climb in the wake of the 7 week closure of the Straight of Hormuz. Farm fuel prices rose far faster than NYMEX futures driving Central IL farm diesel to a record $1.46/Gal over nearby NYMEX futures in early May. Farm biodiesel gained at a slightly lesser rate and offered some relief during peak farm demand season, and the spread between non-bio and bio reached a $.26/gal non-bio premium in late April. Cash prices heve recently ticked lower, but non-bio is $1/gal over NYMEX, at $4.80/Gal. Peak farm demand is now past as planting winds down, but producers with irrigated fields will still have some hefty fuel bills this summer, especially if rains aree not regular and well dispersed across the Plains/W Midwest.
CBOT Corn Extends Correction on Weaker Crude Oil; Fundamental Battle Between Tightening US Balance Sheet and Rising South Am Production Estimates:
CBOT corn for now remains tethered to crude oil, which ended reversed early morning gains and steady/weaker. US-Iranian negotiations will continue. Other fundamental input is mixed, and increasingly ARC expects the global con market to be regionally fractured. US export sales in the week May 14th were sizable and surprising 84 Mil Bu, the largest on record for mid-May. Cumulative sales as a % of USDA’s forecast shows, CBOT July $4.62 -1/2 Matif EU Aug $6.42 -0.03 spot FOB premium US Gulf $0.9 Argentina $0.6, Brazil $1.2, and Ukraine $1.4, and now USDA in its June report will be forced to hike 25/26 US exports 50-100 Mil Bu. This along with China’s commitment to secure $17 Bil of non-soy US ag goods lowers ARC’s 26/27 end stocks forecast to 1.55-1.65 Bil Bu, However, the Buenos Aires Exchange raised its Argentine production forecast to 64 MMT’s vs. USDA’s 59, and a final Argentine crop size of 67-69 MMT’s is possible. A flood of Argentine supplies hits the global market in summer. A complex market lies ahead. Negative seasonal trnds dominate into mid-summer, but the US becomes and island of tightening supplies after harvest. Be prepared to trim hedges/secure supply needs on additional 20-30 cent correction.
The Corn & Crude Dance. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/22/2026
We kickoff the day with Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, CB Leading Index MoM, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final,, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Final at 9:00 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 10:00 A.M., nd Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M.
Energy prices continue to climb in the wake of the 7 week closure of the Straight of Hormuz. Farm fuel prices rose far faster than NYMEX futures driving Central IL farm diesel to a record $1.46/Gal over nearby NYMEX futures in early May. Farm biodiesel gained at a slightly lesser rate and offered some relief during peak farm demand season, and the spread between non-bio and bio reached a $.26/gal non-bio premium in late April. Cash prices heve recently ticked lower, but non-bio is $1/gal over NYMEX, at $4.80/Gal. Peak farm demand is now past as planting winds down, but producers with irrigated fields will still have some hefty fuel bills this summer, especially if rains aree not regular and well dispersed across the Plains/W Midwest.
CBOT Corn Extends Correction on Weaker Crude Oil; Fundamental Battle Between Tightening US Balance Sheet and Rising South Am Production Estimates:
CBOT corn for now remains tethered to crude oil, which ended reversed early morning gains and steady/weaker. US-Iranian negotiations will continue. Other fundamental input is mixed, and increasingly ARC expects the global con market to be regionally fractured. US export sales in the week May 14th were sizable and surprising 84 Mil Bu, the largest on record for mid-May. Cumulative sales as a % of USDA’s forecast shows, CBOT July $4.62 -1/2 Matif EU Aug $6.42 -0.03 spot FOB premium US Gulf $0.9 Argentina $0.6, Brazil $1.2, and Ukraine $1.4, and now USDA in its June report will be forced to hike 25/26 US exports 50-100 Mil Bu. This along with China’s commitment to secure $17 Bil of non-soy US ag goods lowers ARC’s 26/27 end stocks forecast to 1.55-1.65 Bil Bu, However, the Buenos Aires Exchange raised its Argentine production forecast to 64 MMT’s vs. USDA’s 59, and a final Argentine crop size of 67-69 MMT’s is possible. A flood of Argentine supplies hits the global market in summer. A complex market lies ahead. Negative seasonal trnds dominate into mid-summer, but the US becomes and island of tightening supplies after harvest. Be prepared to trim hedges/secure supply needs on additional 20-30 cent correction.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374