Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Fed Venable Speech and NY Fed Services Activity Index at 7:30 A.M., NAHB Housing Market Index at 9:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M.
The Commitment of Traders report showed a week of light profit taking in the ag markets for the week ending May 12. Funds were light sellers in 9 of 10 principal ag markets, with the largest selling in corn, live cattle, and lean hogs. The only market where funds added exposure was in the soymeal market. Funds were long in 9 of the 10 markets, and wheat being the lone net short, which funds extended to a 9-week high. Across the 10 markets, the composite net long position was close to 89,000 contracts for the week, but still at historic high of 1.03 Mil contracts. Significant liquidation has occurred in the last several days, and follow-through selling is expected to weigh on CBOT prices early this week.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Chart Pattern No Longer Supportive; Fund Length Still Sizable:
Corn futures extended its late-week collapse and it’s the flow of money that leans most negative in the second half of May. Managed funds on Tuesday were net long 299,000 contracts, with a large portion of fund length in April/ early May added above $4.70 July. ARC estimates managed fund net length as of Sunday night at 245,000 contracts. Similar to 2025, this will be liquidated without meaningful weather threats. An intermediate low is projected at $4.40-$4.50, July, as contracts near oversold technical levels. A retest of $4.30 occurs prior to expiration of heat/dryness stay absent from the Central US. Key in the short term is whether rain is allowed to reach into NE Sat-Tues. The need for rain there is immediate. ARC’s outlook leans bearish through summer. Recall that the rapid shredding of premium is typical from May to August. Large physical South American supplies loom. Interior prices in Brazil are eroding, and spot cash ethanol in Brazil has fallen $.25/Gal in the last 30 days – despite $100+ crude. Use recoveries for catch-up sales. Expect volatility on each headline emerging on the Middle East. Energies and metals in particular.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Time is Not on Iran’s Side – No Deal – No Regime is Close. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/18/2026
We kickoff the day with Fed Venable Speech and NY Fed Services Activity Index at 7:30 A.M., NAHB Housing Market Index at 9:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M.
The Commitment of Traders report showed a week of light profit taking in the ag markets for the week ending May 12. Funds were light sellers in 9 of 10 principal ag markets, with the largest selling in corn, live cattle, and lean hogs. The only market where funds added exposure was in the soymeal market. Funds were long in 9 of the 10 markets, and wheat being the lone net short, which funds extended to a 9-week high. Across the 10 markets, the composite net long position was close to 89,000 contracts for the week, but still at historic high of 1.03 Mil contracts. Significant liquidation has occurred in the last several days, and follow-through selling is expected to weigh on CBOT prices early this week.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Chart Pattern No Longer Supportive; Fund Length Still Sizable:
Corn futures extended its late-week collapse and it’s the flow of money that leans most negative in the second half of May. Managed funds on Tuesday were net long 299,000 contracts, with a large portion of fund length in April/ early May added above $4.70 July. ARC estimates managed fund net length as of Sunday night at 245,000 contracts. Similar to 2025, this will be liquidated without meaningful weather threats. An intermediate low is projected at $4.40-$4.50, July, as contracts near oversold technical levels. A retest of $4.30 occurs prior to expiration of heat/dryness stay absent from the Central US. Key in the short term is whether rain is allowed to reach into NE Sat-Tues. The need for rain there is immediate. ARC’s outlook leans bearish through summer. Recall that the rapid shredding of premium is typical from May to August. Large physical South American supplies loom. Interior prices in Brazil are eroding, and spot cash ethanol in Brazil has fallen $.25/Gal in the last 30 days – despite $100+ crude. Use recoveries for catch-up sales. Expect volatility on each headline emerging on the Middle East. Energies and metals in particular.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374