Grains Report 05/11/2026

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Tuesday.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Average Range USDA 2025
Corn Production 15,948 15,819-16,011 17,021
Soybean Production 4,450 4,405-4,521 4,262
****
U.S. 2025-26 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,140 2,077-2,267 2,127
Soybeans 347 320-370 350
Wheat 933 912-962 938
U.S. 2026-27 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 1,960 1,776-2,110 N/A
Soybeans 353 300-475 N/A
Wheat 841 760-955 N/A
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2025-26
Average Range USDA April
Corn 296.5 293.0-300.4 294.8
Soybeans 125.6 123.7-127.0 124.8
Wheat 283.0 282.0-284.0 283.1
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2026-27
Average Range USDA April
Corn 286.7 268.0-301.0 N/A
Soybeans 126.3 122.1-132.6 N/A
Wheat 281.2 275.0-291.0 N/A
****
2026-27 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA 2025-26
All Wheat 1,731 1,653-1,833 1,985
Winter Wheat 1,201 1,130-1,375 1,402
Hard Red Winter 633 572-775 804
Soft Red Winter 334 315-353 353
White Winter 234 204-248 244
****
2025-26 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 133.7 130.0-137.0 132.0
Soybeans 180.4 180.0-181.6 180.0
2025-26 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 56.2 52.0-60.0 52.0
Soybeans 48.5 48.0-49.0 48.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL May May 12, 2026 250 Apr 27, 2026
ROUGH RICE May May 12, 2026 28 May 08, 2026
KC HRW WHEAT May May 12, 2026 16 Apr 30, 2026
WHEAT May May 12, 2026 1 Apr 30, 2026

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower in both markets last week as much improved rains were reported in Colorado and Kansas. Isolated showers were reported and are forecast in other parts the western Great Plains, but these are not enough to solve any problems. President Trump announced he was pausing Operation Freedom to give the US and Iran a chance to work out o cease fire deal. The two sides are apparently close to signing a memorandum of understanding about a deal but the two sides were firing on each mother on /Friday and other Gulf states were getting bombed by Iran too. Conditions are too dry in much of the US Great Plains but remain wet in the US Midwest and in western Europe for best quality potential. The weather is now featuring precipitation is forecast for parts of the Midwest along with variable temperatures. The strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 602, 591, and 578 July, with resistance at 635, 650, and 671 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 645, 629, and 605 July, with resistance at 720, 726, and 732 July. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 05, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 540,497
: Positions :
: 76,404 130,256 187,298 84,853 135,872 150,329 54,058 498,884 507,485: 41,613 33,013
: Changes from: April 28, 2026 (Change in open interest: 19,570) :
: -2,253 13,064 4,874 9,620 598 4,156 4,564 16,397 23,100: 3,173 -3,530
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.1 24.1 34.7 15.7 25.1 27.8 10.0 92.3 93.9: 7.7 6.1
: Total Traders: 430 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 142 108 126 86 107 46 27 341 307:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 05, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 337,396
: Positions :
: 58,317 61,819 106,505 55,983 132,368 93,334 14,237 314,139 314,929: 23,257 22,467
: Changes from: April 28, 2026 (Change in open interest: 14,679) :
: 5,720 2,080 9,164 -453 2,167 749 1,799 15,180 15,210: -501 -531
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.3 18.3 31.6 16.6 39.2 27.7 4.2 93.1 93.3: 6.9 6.7
: Total Traders: 271 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 52 66 74 73 102 38 19 208 216:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 5, 2026
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 85,663 :
: Positions :
: 27,933 66,088 4,534 0 254 31,532 2,461 2,015 6,132 1,739 3,102 :
: Changes from: April 28, 2026 :
: 1,154 3,013 362 0 -216 1,484 79 530 -222 588 -247 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 32.6 77.1 5.3 0.0 0.3 36.8 2.9 2.4 7.2 2.0 3.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 108 :
: 45 46 4 0 . 20 9 8 13 . 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments Rice closed higher last week and at the highest level in the last four months. Traders anticipate less production this year in the US and around the world due to low prices. USDA said that Rice planted area would be about 12% less in the coming year. Demand remains moderate for US Rice but export demand has been less lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1178, 1152, and 1117 July and resistance is at 1224, 1236, and 1248 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 5, 2026
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 14,068 :
: Positions :
: 5,905 3,969 210 128 0 1,111 4,823 168 2,001 1,809 1,852 :
: Changes from: April 28, 2026 :
: -818 1,141 150 -25 0 73 -186 66 771 20 -164 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 42.0 28.2 1.5 0.9 0.0 7.9 34.3 1.2 14.2 12.9 13.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 94 :
: 22 18 . . 0 7 18 . 24 9 12 :
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower last week on some speculative selling as the Iran war continues and that strait of Hormuz remains closed. President Trump announced he was pausing Operation Freedom to give the US and Iran a chance to work out o cease fire deal. The two sides are apparently close to signing a memorandum of understanding about a deal but the two sides were bombing each other on Friday and the Gulf states were also getting bombed. Farmers were waiting to plant in much of the north, but most in the central and southern Midwest are planning now and strong demand continues. It looks drier this week, but not completely dry and Chicago has seen more rain. There are still excessive supplies as seen in the recent USDA reports after prices were trending higher on strong demand. Temperatures in the Midwest should be generally cool for the next week. Conditions are called good in Argentina and big production is expected there. Oats were lower and trends are mixed on the daily charts.
Overnight News: South Korea bought 128,000 tons of US Corn and Mexio bought 280000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 461, 452, and 446 July, and resistance is at 477, 487, and 493 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 337, 330, and 324 July, and resistance is at 362, 368, and 374 July

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 05, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,515,587
: Positions :
: 371,648 165,089 764,201 640,085 1,219,130 552,323 110,485 2,328,258 2,258,905: 187,329 256,683
: Changes from: April 28, 2026 (Change in open interest: 184,964) :
: 56,636 -20,936 66,740 6,573 116,642 54,913 14,000 184,862 176,446: 101 8,518
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.8 6.6 30.4 25.4 48.5 22.0 4.4 92.6 89.8: 7.4 10.2
: Total Traders: 928 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 231 130 225 373 422 57 27 772 711:
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SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher last week, but Soybean Oil was lower. President Trump announced he was pausing Operation Freedom to give the US and Iran a chance to work out o cease fire deal. The two sides are apparently close to signing a memorandum of understanding about a deal but new hostilities were reported between the US and Iran on Friday and Iran was also bombing the Gulf states. Temperatures have been cool in the Midwest. There is talk that more Soybeans could be planted if the weather does not improve for Corn planting soon. The big South American harvests are also weighing on prices. Big South American crops are being harvested, and ideas are that Chinese buying could be interrupted due to the Iran war and new import rules imposed by China. South American sources said that the Brazil crops are now harvested. The tariff wars between the US and other countries add to cost of US Soybeans. Temperatures will be generally cool in the Midwest for the next week.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1168, 1157, and 1144 July, and resistance is at 1221, 1230, and 1251 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 316.00, 313.00, and 310.00 July, and resistance is at 331.00, 335.00,and 338.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 7150, 6940, and 6690 July, with resistance at 7680, 7740, and 7800 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 05, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,192,969
: Positions :
: 205,441 62,196 320,973 347,477 679,198 258,832 37,170 1,132,724 1,099,537: 60,246 93,433
: Changes from: April 28, 2026 (Change in open interest: 96,616) :
: 35,424 3,786 32,372 7,762 51,825 19,020 6,559 94,579 94,542: 2,037 2,074
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.2 5.2 26.9 29.1 56.9 21.7 3.1 94.9 92.2: 5.1 7.8
: Total Traders: 673 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 189 105 172 196 287 51 19 518 515:
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COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 05, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 861,776
: Positions :
: 157,336 38,218 252,682 245,936 499,599 163,207 41,168 819,160 831,667: 42,616 30,109
: Changes from: April 28, 2026 (Change in open interest: 20,477) :
: -2,667 -2,054 16,430 -4,059 4,949 8,205 1,296 17,909 20,621: 2,568 -144
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.3 4.4 29.3 28.5 58.0 18.9 4.8 95.1 96.5: 4.9 3.5
: Total Traders: 356 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 117 63 103 92 110 41 22 298 256:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 05, 2026
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 633,734
: Positions :
: 140,409 55,135 124,104 163,062 411,122 152,034 15,064 579,608 605,424: 54,126 28,310
: Changes from: April 28, 2026 (Change in open interest: -4,172) :
: -891 1,046 1,595 -7,708 -9,814 -1,616 4,019 -8,621 -3,154: 4,449 -1,018
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.2 8.7 19.6 25.7 64.9 24.0 2.4 91.5 95.5: 8.5 4.5
: Total Traders: 331 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 104 40 83 115 116 38 10 293 220:
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PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil followed the outside markets lower on hopes for a peace deal between the US and Iran. Futures were higher today. Canola was also lower on the Iran war news.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 733.00, 729.00, and 709.00 July, with resistance at 758.00, 769.00, and 772.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4450, 4350, and 4280 July, with resistance at 4740, 4800, and 4870 July

DJ Malaysia’s April Palm Oil Exports 1.30M Tons; Down 14%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 14% on month at 1.30 million metric tons in April, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the April crop data and revised numbers for March, issued by MPOB:
April March Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,629,801 1,376,849 Up 18.37%
Palm Oil Exports 1,302,979 1,521,098 Dn 14.34%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 110,711 79,278 Up 39.65%
Palm Oil Imports 75,846 66,801 Up 13.54%
Closing Stocks 2,309,474 2,270,574 Up 1.71%
Crude Palm Oil 1,264,175 1,257,331 Up 0.54%
Processed Palm Oil 1,045,299 1,013,243 Up 3.16%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 5, 2026
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 47,258 :
: Positions :
: 43,685 38,059 1,200 6,361 563 320 1,315 600 810 360 0 :
: Changes from: April 28, 2026 :
: -2,332 -655 -440 -1,997 60 0 -70 0 60 0 0 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 92.4 80.5 2.5 13.5 1.2 0.7 2.8 1.3 1.7 0.8 0.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 25 :
: 11 10 . 4 . . . . . . 0 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 5, 2026
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 364,970 :
: Positions :
: 171,430 223,732 2,886 17,190 3,923 117,277 28,169 32,620 10,421 31,618 24,848 :
: Changes from: April 28, 2026 :
: 13,143 18,865 158 2,498 0 14,693 8,551 -1,218 2,425 646 3,778 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 47.0 61.3 0.8 4.7 1.1 32.1 7.7 8.9 2.9 8.7 6.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 458 :
: 53 118 8 5 8 77 26 20 61 139 76 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1185.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1185.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1190.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1200.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1202.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1190.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1190.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1195.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1205.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1207.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1155.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1060.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4,540.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 473.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9233)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322