Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff day with Fed Cook Speech at 4:45 A.M., Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY (Apr), Participation Rate (Apr), Average Weekly Hours (Apr), Government Payrolls (Apr), Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Apr), and U-6 Unemployment Rate (Apr) at &:30 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prel), Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Prel) Michigan Consumer Expectations (Prel), Michigan Current Conditions (prel) Michigan Inflation Expectations (Prel). And Wholesale Inventories MoM at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M. Fed Bowman Speech, Fed Daly Speecg, Fed Goolsbee Speech, and Fed Walker Speech at 6:30 P.M.
A recent report from the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) showed that US farms use a broad array of risk-management strategies rather than rely on one tool from 1996-2020, the most common strategies were household or business liquidity, especially non-retirement savings, off-farm employment, and non-Federal Crop insurance The types of risk management varied greatly by scale and commodity mix: small farms leaned more on savings and off-farm income, while midsized and large operations use more crop insurance, storage, credit, marketing contacts , Government programs , soil-health practices, and succession planning. Federal Crop Insurance participation has been relatively stable since 2025 across all farms, but participation has been relatively stable since 2025 across all farms, but participation rose for very large farms and declined for small farms. Futures and options remain niche, used by only 2.3% of all farms but are more common among larger and row-crop farms. Many risk-management tools are used more by larger commercial farms than by smaller farms have more production, assets, and scale to justify cost and complexity.
US Corn to Lose Market Share into November:
CBOT corn ended slightly lower. Producer selling slowed to a trickle on the break amid uncertainty over whether the Straight of Hormuz actually reopens. ARC acknowledges that until the Straight opens high fertilizer cost will linger. ARC’s concern into late summer is the collision of favorable Midwest weather and record South American feedgrain surpluses. The Argentine corn harvest is 30% completed. Harvested supplies are 4MMT’s above the domestic markets need. Argentina’s cumulative yield is 5% above last year. Which still points to a final crop sizes of 63-67 MMT’s. The sluggish nature of harvest has kept fob prices in Argentina relatively supportive, but the Argi market will forced to actively clear excess corn supply before August. Resistance is seen at $5.00basis December futures. The medium-term outlook is bearish without major Central US weather threats. The market is focused on the US war against Iran and whether the Straight of Hormuz can be reopened. There is still time for Southern Hemisphere fertilizer supplies to be replenished with cutoff of the first halfof June. ARC will add to sales following the USChina summit.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-4374 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Record South American Feed Grain Surpluses. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/08/2026
We kickoff day with Fed Cook Speech at 4:45 A.M., Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY (Apr), Participation Rate (Apr), Average Weekly Hours (Apr), Government Payrolls (Apr), Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Apr), and U-6 Unemployment Rate (Apr) at &:30 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prel), Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Prel) Michigan Consumer Expectations (Prel), Michigan Current Conditions (prel) Michigan Inflation Expectations (Prel). And Wholesale Inventories MoM at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M. Fed Bowman Speech, Fed Daly Speecg, Fed Goolsbee Speech, and Fed Walker Speech at 6:30 P.M.
A recent report from the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) showed that US farms use a broad array of risk-management strategies rather than rely on one tool from 1996-2020, the most common strategies were household or business liquidity, especially non-retirement savings, off-farm employment, and non-Federal Crop insurance The types of risk management varied greatly by scale and commodity mix: small farms leaned more on savings and off-farm income, while midsized and large operations use more crop insurance, storage, credit, marketing contacts , Government programs , soil-health practices, and succession planning. Federal Crop Insurance participation has been relatively stable since 2025 across all farms, but participation has been relatively stable since 2025 across all farms, but participation rose for very large farms and declined for small farms. Futures and options remain niche, used by only 2.3% of all farms but are more common among larger and row-crop farms. Many risk-management tools are used more by larger commercial farms than by smaller farms have more production, assets, and scale to justify cost and complexity.
US Corn to Lose Market Share into November:
CBOT corn ended slightly lower. Producer selling slowed to a trickle on the break amid uncertainty over whether the Straight of Hormuz actually reopens. ARC acknowledges that until the Straight opens high fertilizer cost will linger. ARC’s concern into late summer is the collision of favorable Midwest weather and record South American feedgrain surpluses. The Argentine corn harvest is 30% completed. Harvested supplies are 4MMT’s above the domestic markets need. Argentina’s cumulative yield is 5% above last year. Which still points to a final crop sizes of 63-67 MMT’s. The sluggish nature of harvest has kept fob prices in Argentina relatively supportive, but the Argi market will forced to actively clear excess corn supply before August. Resistance is seen at $5.00basis December futures. The medium-term outlook is bearish without major Central US weather threats. The market is focused on the US war against Iran and whether the Straight of Hormuz can be reopened. There is still time for Southern Hemisphere fertilizer supplies to be replenished with cutoff of the first halfof June. ARC will add to sales following the USChina summit.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-4374 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374