There are a couple different sayings for the time of year we are in, and they both has contradictory meanings. The first is “April showers bring may flowers.” For some the April showers have been somewhat excessive, particularly in the Central Corn Belt that has allowed for very little planting progress to be made. The other saying would be “plant in the dust, and the bins will bust.” For this in the far western portions of the Corn Belt, and further south, there sure has been a lot of dust. I would qualify for the latter, and I have drug too many hoses across my year so far this spring for it not being May yet. Now, if the rains don’t come the bins will be empty. With that said there have been two different extremes for this year for the wheat crop, planting the other row crops in the dust mean increased chances for yield loss and abandonment, something the wheat market was noting this week.
Corn extended the bounce this week with May up another 6 ¼ cents and December 7 3/4 cents higher. Crop Progress data showed 11% of the US corn crop planted, slightly ahead of the 9% average pace. Emergence was at 4%. EIA indicated ethanol production falling back 80,000 barrels per day in the week of 4/17, to 1.04 million bpd. Seasonally, production takes a hit around this time due to maintenance. Stocks saw a build in that week of 249,000 barrels to 26.948 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at 1.32 MMT in the week of April 16. That took commitments to 74.1 MMT, 88% of the USDA export projection and behind the 92% average pace. New crop sales were 440,110 MT. Commitment of Traders data as of 4/21 tallied managed money at a net long of 184,406 contracts of futures and options in corn. That was a 24,923 contract reduction on the week.
The wheat complex extended the strength this week, with the hard red contracts hitting some fresh highs for the move. MPLS spring wheat was the leader to the upside, up 22 ¾ cents, with Kansas City 22 ¼ cents in the green. Chicago was the trailer, 17 cents higher on the week. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 20% of the US winter wheat crop headed. Conditions were pegged at 30% good/excellent, down 4 points from the week prior. The Brugler500 index (100-500 weighted scale) was at 290 points, slipping 5 points from last. Over 70% of winter wheat country is covered in drought according to the latest drought monitor. Spring wheat was 12% planted. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of April 9 was just 129,022 MT for old crop, with just 8,000 MT for new crop. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding 3,451 contracts of futures and options to their net short in CBT wheat as of April 21 at 10,717 contracts. Spec funds in KC wheat added another 11,085 contracts to their net long position at 28,009 contracts.
Soybeans extended the modest weakness this week with May down 3 ½ cents, as November was ¾ cents lower. May soybean meal was down $7.50 on the week, with May bean oil up 375 points. Crop Progress from Monday afternoon pegged the US soybean crop at 12% planted by April 19, well above the 5% 5-year average. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 364,633 MT in the week ending on 4/16, a 4-week high despite the US still at a premium to the Brazilian offers. Soybean export commitments are at 38.52 MMT, 92% of the USDA export number and 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding back 17,733 contracts to their net long of 192,884 contracts by 4/21.
Live cattle were slightly lower this week, with April down $1.65 on the day. Cash trade centered near $246 this week, with $248 sales coming in late. That was mostly steady to $2 lower from the week prior. Feeders were also under pressure, with April down $3.70. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $8.35 lower week/week to $369.32. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week, as the Chc/Sel spread is back to a premium of 93 cents. Choice boxes were up $5.94/cwt on the week to $387.00, as Select was $9.47 (2.5%) higher at $386.07 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 2.9% above the week prior and down 2% from the same week last year at 475.9 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.4% on a 9.9% drop in slaughter. Monthly Cold Storage data showed 410.52 million lbs of beef stocks at the end of March, a 1.95% draw from February and 3.45% below last year. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 134,795 contracts, an increase of 1,847 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday.
Hogs saw a modest recovery this week, with June up another 85 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up 77 cents this week at $91.43 as of April 22. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $0.41 (0.4%) this week to $99.61/cwt. The belly and ham primals were the only reported lower. Weekly pork production was up 0.5% from last week at 539.3 million lbs, which is 2.8% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down slightly below last year on a 0.7% drop in slaughter. Cold Storage data from Friday showed March 31 pork stocks at 411.28 million lbs, which was a 0.44% increase from a year ago and 2.09% above last year. CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 22,296 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 4/21, taking the total to 65,591 contracts.
Cotton futures were weaker this week as May was down 40 points, and new crop December was up 8 points. Crop Progress data was released this morning, showing 11% of the US cotton crop planted by Sunday. Export Sales from the week of 4/16 were tallied at 119,947 RB for old crop, with 57,078 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 296,379 RB. Export commitments at 10.58 million RB, which is 93% of USDA’s number and lags the 101% pace from the last 5 years. Spec traders extended their fresh net long of by 17,639 contracts in the week of 4/21, taking the position to 34,464 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was up 287 points to 61.61 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the Monday morning Export Inspections report, as the weekly NASS Crop Progress report will be out that afternoon. EIA data will be released on Wednesday per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be published on Thursday morning. Thursday is also first notice day for May grain futures, as well as the final trade day for April live cattle future/feeder cattle futures and options. Friday will see the release of the monthly Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils reports.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn has a nobody’s home double top at the March high at $4.98 1/2. The retreat was halted at a test of the 50% Fib retracement support at $4.72 around tax day. Since then, Stochastics have run bullish and are just getting to overbought. That is not the same thing as a sell signal, as they have yet to cross. Still, futures are hitting on resistance via a 2/3 speedline off the March high at $4.85 That held in the latter half of this week. Breaking through that would suggest a test of the March highs, though bulls have to be convinced to ignore the overbought oscillators.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Flowers or Dust. Ag Marketing Report 04/27/2026
There are a couple different sayings for the time of year we are in, and they both has contradictory meanings. The first is “April showers bring may flowers.” For some the April showers have been somewhat excessive, particularly in the Central Corn Belt that has allowed for very little planting progress to be made. The other saying would be “plant in the dust, and the bins will bust.” For this in the far western portions of the Corn Belt, and further south, there sure has been a lot of dust. I would qualify for the latter, and I have drug too many hoses across my year so far this spring for it not being May yet. Now, if the rains don’t come the bins will be empty. With that said there have been two different extremes for this year for the wheat crop, planting the other row crops in the dust mean increased chances for yield loss and abandonment, something the wheat market was noting this week.
Corn extended the bounce this week with May up another 6 ¼ cents and December 7 3/4 cents higher. Crop Progress data showed 11% of the US corn crop planted, slightly ahead of the 9% average pace. Emergence was at 4%. EIA indicated ethanol production falling back 80,000 barrels per day in the week of 4/17, to 1.04 million bpd. Seasonally, production takes a hit around this time due to maintenance. Stocks saw a build in that week of 249,000 barrels to 26.948 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed old crop corn business at 1.32 MMT in the week of April 16. That took commitments to 74.1 MMT, 88% of the USDA export projection and behind the 92% average pace. New crop sales were 440,110 MT. Commitment of Traders data as of 4/21 tallied managed money at a net long of 184,406 contracts of futures and options in corn. That was a 24,923 contract reduction on the week.
The wheat complex extended the strength this week, with the hard red contracts hitting some fresh highs for the move. MPLS spring wheat was the leader to the upside, up 22 ¾ cents, with Kansas City 22 ¼ cents in the green. Chicago was the trailer, 17 cents higher on the week. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 20% of the US winter wheat crop headed. Conditions were pegged at 30% good/excellent, down 4 points from the week prior. The Brugler500 index (100-500 weighted scale) was at 290 points, slipping 5 points from last. Over 70% of winter wheat country is covered in drought according to the latest drought monitor. Spring wheat was 12% planted. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of April 9 was just 129,022 MT for old crop, with just 8,000 MT for new crop. Commitments of Traders showed managed money adding 3,451 contracts of futures and options to their net short in CBT wheat as of April 21 at 10,717 contracts. Spec funds in KC wheat added another 11,085 contracts to their net long position at 28,009 contracts.
Soybeans extended the modest weakness this week with May down 3 ½ cents, as November was ¾ cents lower. May soybean meal was down $7.50 on the week, with May bean oil up 375 points. Crop Progress from Monday afternoon pegged the US soybean crop at 12% planted by April 19, well above the 5% 5-year average. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings at 364,633 MT in the week ending on 4/16, a 4-week high despite the US still at a premium to the Brazilian offers. Soybean export commitments are at 38.52 MMT, 92% of the USDA export number and 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding back 17,733 contracts to their net long of 192,884 contracts by 4/21.
Live cattle were slightly lower this week, with April down $1.65 on the day. Cash trade centered near $246 this week, with $248 sales coming in late. That was mostly steady to $2 lower from the week prior. Feeders were also under pressure, with April down $3.70. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $8.35 lower week/week to $369.32. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week, as the Chc/Sel spread is back to a premium of 93 cents. Choice boxes were up $5.94/cwt on the week to $387.00, as Select was $9.47 (2.5%) higher at $386.07 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 2.9% above the week prior and down 2% from the same week last year at 475.9 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.4% on a 9.9% drop in slaughter. Monthly Cold Storage data showed 410.52 million lbs of beef stocks at the end of March, a 1.95% draw from February and 3.45% below last year. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 134,795 contracts, an increase of 1,847 contracts for the week ending on Tuesday.
Hogs saw a modest recovery this week, with June up another 85 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up 77 cents this week at $91.43 as of April 22. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $0.41 (0.4%) this week to $99.61/cwt. The belly and ham primals were the only reported lower. Weekly pork production was up 0.5% from last week at 539.3 million lbs, which is 2.8% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down slightly below last year on a 0.7% drop in slaughter. Cold Storage data from Friday showed March 31 pork stocks at 411.28 million lbs, which was a 0.44% increase from a year ago and 2.09% above last year. CFTC data showed managed money cutting another 22,296 contracts from their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 4/21, taking the total to 65,591 contracts.
Cotton futures were weaker this week as May was down 40 points, and new crop December was up 8 points. Crop Progress data was released this morning, showing 11% of the US cotton crop planted by Sunday. Export Sales from the week of 4/16 were tallied at 119,947 RB for old crop, with 57,078 RB for new crop, as shipments were at 296,379 RB. Export commitments at 10.58 million RB, which is 93% of USDA’s number and lags the 101% pace from the last 5 years. Spec traders extended their fresh net long of by 17,639 contracts in the week of 4/21, taking the position to 34,464 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was up 287 points to 61.61 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the Monday morning Export Inspections report, as the weekly NASS Crop Progress report will be out that afternoon. EIA data will be released on Wednesday per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be published on Thursday morning. Thursday is also first notice day for May grain futures, as well as the final trade day for April live cattle future/feeder cattle futures and options. Friday will see the release of the monthly Grain Crushing and Fats & Oils reports.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn has a nobody’s home double top at the March high at $4.98 1/2. The retreat was halted at a test of the 50% Fib retracement support at $4.72 around tax day. Since then, Stochastics have run bullish and are just getting to overbought. That is not the same thing as a sell signal, as they have yet to cross. Still, futures are hitting on resistance via a 2/3 speedline off the March high at $4.85 That held in the latter half of this week. Breaking through that would suggest a test of the March highs, though bulls have to be convinced to ignore the overbought oscillators.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.