Show or No Go. The Energy Report 04/21/2026

Oil prices were a bit lower overnight but started to rally as questions remain whether an Iranian delegation will show up in Pakistan to attend peace talks with the United States. President Trump made it clear that its highly unlikely he would extend the ceasefire emphasizing that he’s not rushing into a bad deal and telling Iran and anyone else that: “We’ve got all the time in the world.” Trump is suggesting that if these talks don’t land a deal,  the gloves come off and fighting fires right back up as the U.S. is keeping the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s ports locked down tight, blockade and all, until they see some real progress.

No agreement, no let-up and blockade in place. In fact, this may be the first time in 47 years, even with all of the many sanctions on the Iranian regime, that Iran will not be able to export even one drop of oil. Think of that, it’s the most economic pressure this regime has ever faced. For Iran’s side, after the flip-flop on the Strait of Hormuz and now the uncertainty over whether a delegation will even show up in Pakistan, it all points to a classic internal struggle between the more moderate voices in Tehran and the hard-core headline zealots who are oblivious to the fact that they cannot win this war.

Just days ago on April 17, Iran’s Foreign Ministry proudly declared the Strait “completely open” after the U.S. and Israel accepted the Lebanon ceasefire—only for the IRGC and top military brass to slam the door shut again within 24 hours, citing U.S. “violations,” attacking vessels, and reimposing strict controls. Now, with Vice President JD Vance and the U.S. team already in route to Islamabad for round-two peace talks, Tehran is sending mixed signals: the foreign ministry says it “has yet to decide” on attending while semi-official outlets flat-out deny any plans, all while the naval blockade remains in place.

This isn’t random diplomatic theater—it’s a clear rift between pragmatic elements trying to de-escalate and hardliners who thrive on chaos and confrontation. For the oil market, it spells more of the usual knee-jerk volatility: WTI and Brent spiked 5% yesterday on the latest Hormuz scare before traders priced in the possibility of an off-ramp, reminding everyone once again why U.S. crude remains the ultimate global safety net.

Trump threatened Iran with strikes on its bridges and power plants if no deal is made. Tehran’s involvement remains unclear, as officials have indicated they may skip talks and reject negotiations “under the shadow of threats” or until they decide whether they want peace or to die for the regime.

And as crazy as the volatility has been in this market, the trend in oil after the initial spike has been down though the volatility has been incredible which reminds me of some trading rules someone once wrote. Rule #1 wars are always an oil price selling event. Rule #2 go back to rule #1.

I know that sounds incredible when we were seeing the biggest risk to oil supply in the world but we’re also seeing an incredible workaround for many of the oil tankers with tankers coming to the United States with their pipelines and even the International Energy Agency coming out yesterday saying that Strait of Hormuz is now tainted as a reliable route to move oil so just like the oil crisis in the 1970s where the United States changed their ways and reduced consumption this threat to supply is going to have long term ramifications as other countries are going to look to expand their ability to move oil and not be reliant on this choke point that could be held hostage by this dying regime.

Remember a few weeks ago when everybody was asking the question how come gasoline prices go up so fast but come down so slowly. Have you noticed gas prices dropping lately? Even with the big oil rally, AAA reported that U.S. retail gas prices continued their downward slide for the 11th consecutive day, offering a bit of relief at the pump for American drivers.

The national average for regular unleaded gasoline now stands at $4.022 per gallon, down from yesterday’s $4.042 and a solid drop from last week’s $4.118. Even mid-grade fell to $4.526 (from $4.534 yesterday and $4.627 a week ago), while premium slipped to $4.897 (versus $4.911 and $4.992). Diesel prices eased to $5.511 from $5.531 yesterday and $5.650 last week, and E85 blended fuel dipped to $3.155 from $3.158 and $3.260 seven days prior.

This drop in prices really shows how there’s a bit of a delay between what’s happening in the oil markets and what drivers actually pay at the gas station. Refiners and retailers are finally working through that pricey inventory from earlier this month, back when oil shot up past $100 a barrel. Thanks to the shifting seasonal demand and smoother supply flows, prices at the pump are getting a chance to cool off—and that’s welcome news for anyone filling up! Especially as the official kickoff to the summer driving season it’s just about a month away.

The national average for regular gasoline slid down about 7 cents over the past week. This positive downward momentum is no accident. Earlier this year, the Trump administration jumped in with a handful of smart moves to shake up supply and clear out some of those stubborn bottlenecks. For example, they rolled out a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, which let foreign ships haul oil, gas, and other energy products between U.S. ports. That’s a big deal—it cut shipping costs and sped up fuel deliveries right when things were getting tight.

The EPA stepped in and handed out emergency waivers on those summer gasoline rules, which meant they temporarily lifted the requirements for low-volatility (summer blend) gas and loosened restrictions on higher-ethanol blends like E15. That move gave refiners and gas stations a lot more wiggle room—they could produce and sell cheaper fuel options without switching over to the expensive seasonal blends. The end result? More supply and a little extra savings for folks filling up at the pump.

So, when you put these policy moves together with the usual delay in how prices at the pump catch up to wholesale changes, plus the fact that wholesale prices have been cooling off, it’s no wonder we’re seeing some relief at gas stations right now.

Still, for context, the current averages remain well above where we stood a month ago  —regular was $3.925, mid-grade $4.431, premium $4.796, diesel $5.208, and E85 $3.102—but they are dramatically higher than year-ago levels when regular averaged just $3.153, mid-grade $3.617, premium $3.975, diesel $3.555, and E85 $2.613.

The disconnect between rising crude oil prices and falling pump prices highlights how local refining margins, inventory management, and intense competitive pressures at the retail level can sometimes override broader crude trends in the short term. Drivers are enjoying this welcome streak of relief at the pump and while we may see some price upticks from time to time more than likely the gasoline retail price highs are most likely in.    Stil in the short term  with oil showing underlying resilience amid ongoing Middle East tensions, the key question is whether this 11-day decline in gas prices can extend further—or if the uptick in crude eventually catches up at the pump. That outcome hinge significantly on the US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan, which represent a potential major catalyst for change.

A successful diplomatic breakthrough (or even credible progress) in Islamabad could ease geopolitical risks, potentially easing supply concerns through the Strait of Hormuz and putting downward pressure on crude prices and drive crude below $4.00 a gallon. On the flip side, any breakdown or escalation—especially with the current two-week ceasefire set to expire soon—could reverse the relief at the pump and send oil higher. Markets will be watching developments closely over the coming days as the talks unfold. Call Phil Flynn if you want to get involved 888-264-5665.

Natural gas futures put in a modest rally yesterday, climbing as high as the $2.71 area before settling around $2.68–$2.70. It was the kind of bounce that gets the bulls whispering “finally,” but I am afraid that this rally looks like it could fizzle faster than a warm-weather forecast in the Midwest. Why did we rally yesterday?

A couple of things lined up just right for the short-term pop. First, we saw continued fallout from the Middle East chaos—U.S. Navy action in the region and renewed worries about the Strait of Hormuz kept global energy markets on edge. That lifted the tone for oil and spilled over into Nat gas as traders priced in some extra support for U.S. LNG exports.

On the domestic side, production dipped noticeably due to planned maintenance outages, and we had a pocket of unseasonably cool weather across parts of the country that sparked a little short-covering and bargain hunting. Combine that with an oversold technical picture and you get the small weekend-into-Monday bounce we saw. But here’s the reality check: this move is hanging by a thread and the rally might fizzle (and probably will). Natural gas production is coming back online fast. Those maintenance-related cuts are temporary. Output is expected to ramp back up quickly, and we’re still running at historically strong levels overall.

Weather is turning against us. The cool snap was short-lived. Fox Weather forecasts are already shifting back toward milder temps, especially in the Southeast and Texas—the very areas we need heating demand from right now. Without sustained cold, shoulder-season demand stays soft. Storage builds are coming. We’re looking at triple-digit injections this Thursday of around 100 bcf. Inventories are already sitting comfortably above average, and another solid build will remind everyone we’re not tight on supply heading into summer.

Still Fox Weather is reporting that snow and other winter weather will return for millions across parts of the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and New England. Despite a major warmup set to take hold across much of the Plains, cold air from Canada will maintain its grip across the Northern Tier, setting the stage for several rounds of winter weather through the week. Yikes! You can complain about the weather all you want but the best remedy is to download the Fox Weather ap. Also stay tune to the Fox Business Network! Call to open your account today by calling me at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.