Biden Record Intact. The Energy Report 04/17/2026

President Trump announced the truce following phone calls with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, with plans now underway for White House talks in the near future. This pause in the fighting, which involves Hezbollah, has helped reduce the immediate risks of broader regional escalation and provided relief in oil market risk premiums.

At the same time, the U.S. targeted blockade of Iranian ports is already having a bearish impact on oil prices. As I wrote, this was bearish not bullish and that was the case. President Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to bring Iran to its knees as it is exerting significant economic pressure on Iran, contributing to lower oil prices. After President Trump stated that the conflict in Iran, “should be ending pretty soon,” oil prices have been fluctuating near the $90.00 mark.

This comes as Reuters reports that France and Britain will chair a meeting today of around 40 countries aimed at signaling to the United States that some of its closest allies are ready to ‌play a role in restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz once conditions allow.  And the Trump Administration must be asking, what took you so long. The US has shouldered the risks by defeating the world’s largest state sponsor of global terror and now that the job is done, they now want to help.

Several prominent agencies and analysts are now calling for to oil demand destruction amid the 2026 Iran war and resulting supply shocks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has been the most vocal, warning in its April 2026 Oil Market Report that global oil demand will contract by an average of 80,000 barrels per day this year — a sharp reversal from prior growth forecasts — with a steep 1.5 million bpd drop expected in Q2. The IEA explicitly states that, “demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist,” particularly affecting naphtha, LPG, and jet fuel in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific.

Yet is the IEA wrong again. Because all that talk of demand destruction is not happening — at least not in the US. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that total petroleum products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels per day, up 5.6% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, US exports of crude oil and petroleum products hit a fresh record high last week, surging to 12.7 million barrels per day.

Gasoline demand is holding in as well, averaging 8.8 million barrels per day, up 3.6% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel products supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels per day, up 2.2% from the same period last year.

And one would have to admit that with the biggest so-called supply shock in history with the Strait of Hormuz the administration has done an amazing job keeping prices under control despite the risk. Trump’s movements on the releasing of the oil from the 172 million barrels of crude oil from the U.S. SPR (part of a larger coordinated 400-million-barrel international release with allies)reserve  at a critical time as well as his decisive action to counteract Iran’s moves. The temporary 60-day waiver of the Jones Act eased sanctions to allow limited flows of Russian oil (already at sea or to specific buyers like India for a short period). Issued licenses for certain transactions with Venezuela’s state oil company (PDVSA) to bring more supply online quickly. The EPA also issued a sensible E15 waiver, allowing higher-ethanol gasoline blends starting early May for at least 20 days (with room to extend). It’s a practical way to increase fuel availability and help keep pump prices in check during the warmer months.

Regular gasoline prices have seen a welcome decrease, dropping 1.7 cents from yesterday to $4.093 and falling 7.7 cents from last week’s $4.153. However, despite the recent pullback, prices remain significantly higher than previous periods—up 28.6 cents from a month ago, when regular was $3.790, and a substantial 90.9 cents higher compared to this time last year, when prices were $3.167. Mid-grade and premium gasoline grades are experiencing the same trend, showing modest short-term declines but remaining sharply elevated year-over-year.

Diesel, which is crucial for truckers and farmers, has dropped 2.1 cents from yesterday to $5.614 and is down 9 cents from last week’s rate of $5.683. Despite the challenging trend in diesel prices—up 54.9 cents since last month ($5.044) and $2.011 above last year’s rate ($3.582)—recent decreases offer a welcome sign of relief. While fuel costs remain higher compared to last year, these short-term drops provide hope for more stability ahead and could help ease transportation and agricultural expenses moving forward. Even with a year-over-year rise of more than 56%, the latest improvements suggest we may be turning a corner, encouraging optimism for industries that rely on affordable fuel.

Yesterday’s EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report delivered another bearish surprise for the bulls. Working gas in underground storage jumped 59 Bcf to 1,970 Bcf. That beat the consensus expectation of roughly 55 Bcf and marked the second straight week of strong injections as we officially kick off the shoulder-season build period.

Working gas in storage increased by 59 billion cubic feet, which is higher than the expected injection of around 55 billion cubic feet. Storage levels are currently 126 billion cubic feet above last year’s figures and 108 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 1,862 billion cubic feet.

Storage is sitting comfortably inside the five-year historical range, but the surplus to both last year and the norm continues to widen. That’s exactly what you expect when mild spring weather keeps residential/commercial heating demand in check and production refuses to blink. U.S. dry gas output is humming near record levels, and with no major freeze-offs or maintenance spikes on the horizon, supply is more than keeping pace. Still the Fox Weather app has been humming with massive weather risks with floods and storms. The Fox Weather outlook for natural gas though is calling for a classic spring warmup pattern across much of the Lower 48. We’re seeing above-average temperatures dominate the West, Central, and South, with only pockets of cooler air lingering in the Northeast and Upper Midwest through the next 5–7 days. After that, the models trend even milder.

The recent cooler shift noted by some weather groups through April 20 gave nat-gas futures a modest lift yesterday on short-covering, but it’s not enough to derail the bigger picture. Heating degree days remain well below normal. That means continued strong injections into storage and very limited withdrawal risk. Demand is in that awkward shoulder-season lull — too warm for meaningful heating, not yet hot enough for widespread cooling/power burn.

The good news for the bulls longer term? Once we get into true cooling season, any sustained heat wave could flip the script quickly. Power-generation demand (already boosted by data centers, AI, and LNG exports running near capacity) becomes the dominant driver. If Fox Weather’s warmer bias holds. Call me to get involved – 888-264-5667.

So download the Fox Weather ap and stay tuned to the Fox Business Network. Invested in you! Call to open your trading account as 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.