AgMaster Report – 04/10/2026

MAY CORN

The onset of the Iranian War on Feb 28 has presented different correlations – with the initial one being the grains moving in lockstep with the energies as they built in a “war premium”! Then in recent days as renewed peace talks signaled a possible end to the war, the premium was shredded! But today based on Trump’s latest post on TRUTH SOCIAL the grains seem to be applauding the end of the war – Trump said President Xi would be very happy with the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz & would not support Iran militarily – &July corn embraced that quote as trade positivity for US-China – finishing 8 cents higher! Also the US Dollar became an unexpected grain positive – breaking 250 points in just 2 weeks! Finally, fuel & fertilizer remain high – possibly reducing 2026 corn production! Exports are tops and in this election year, Trump needs the Farm Vote to rally his sinking ratings!

 

MAY BEANS

Clearly, the May Beans have been locked in a tight trading range for over a month! Supporting the mkt has been excellent biodiesel demand – announced every Wed – the Iran War – which has caused energy prices to surge – plus the positivity surrounding the upcoming Trump-Xi talks in Beijing! Providing headwinds has been the predicted increase in planted acres – possibly even more with a corn-to-beans switch prompted by the escalating fuel/fertilizer costs! However, the wildcard could come from the pervasive dryness in parts of the farm belt, the plummeting US Dollar & Trumps efforts to help the farmer between now & the Nov Mid-terms – to embellish his waning national polls – all of which could swing beans higher into planting!

 

KC MAY WHT

It’s all about persistent dry weather in the Plains – including KS, COL, NEB, TX & OK the KC contracts responded big-time today with a 25 cent gain to new contract highs – in stark contrast to its neighbors corn & beans which have languished in tight ranges as the Iran War winds down! The $64 question is whether the dryness will extend into the corn & bean planting areas – from a La Nina type phenomenon!

 

JUNE CAT

June Cat is the quintessential bullish juggernaut – leaping $25 since early March off chronically tight #’s & sensational demand! In stark contrast, are June Hogs which are languishing off their 2026 lows – as June Cat makes new contract highs almost every day! Quite a dichotomy between the 2 meats that normally move in lockstep! But the consumer has cleared stated his presence for burgers & steaks over pork chops! The mkt is currently overbought & correcting – potential headwinds might be the re-opening of the Mexican border & gov’t intervention to reign in record high prices! The April COF is Friday at 2pm – projecting 93% placements!

 

JUNE HOGS

Frankly, June Hogs continued weakness (down $10 from its Feb highs) in contrast to June Cat explosive strength ( up $25 since its Mar lows) is a real head-scratcher! Eventually the “worm will turn” when consumers won’t be able to resist the cheap pork vs the record high beef – but not yet! The hog complex has been dogged by lackluster demand & adequate supply – despite solid exports!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337