This next week is the start of the biggest basketball tournament of the year. The Thursday through Sunday set of constant basketball is one of the more stacked days of the sports calendar. Normally, I watch the tournament as a casual fan of the craziness, pulling for the underdogs, but this year will have skin in the game with the Huskers bound for the field of 68. Lets just hope their showing is better than in the conference tournament. As for the madness this month in the grains, things got started off a little earlier in the month. The crude oil led rally took things to multi-month/year highs across several of the grains from corn, soybeans, to wheat. Can the madness continue or is the underdog’s run nearing its end?
Corn closed this week with a 6 ¾ cent gain in the May contract, a 1.47% gain, despite fading back the Sunday night spike higher. Crude was up another 8.59% this week to add in some premium. USDA had a report on Tuesday but changed very little other than raising Brazil production by 1 MMT and cutting Argentina by 1 MMT. World ending stocks were raised by 3.76 MMT to 292.75 MMT. EIA showed ethanol production back up 31,000 barrels per day in the week of 3/6, to 1.126 million bpd. Stocks were saw a draw of 757,000 barrels to 25.58 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data had corn sales totaling 1.53 MMT in the week of March 5. Export commitments are now 66.513 MMT, which is 79% of the USDA export forecast and slightly behind the 80% average pace of sales. Commitment of Traders data as of March 3 indicated managed money adding 140,297 contracts of futures and options to the spec fund net long position in the week ending on March 10. That was the largest Tuesday/Tuesday move to the long side since May 2019 and took the net position to 193,271 contracts.
The wheat complex was on the mixed side, but saw a late week rally to push things higher, Chicago was the lone exception, down 3 cents on the week. KC was up 6 1/2 cents in the May contract to lead the way, with May MPLS up 2 1/2 cents. A USDA report was out on Tuesday, though the market lacked focus, as the US balance sheet was left unchanged. World stocks were down just 0.55 MMT to 276.96 MMT. The Kansas Crop Progress report from Tuesday afternoon indicated winter wheat conditions at 56% good/excellent, or 348 on the Brugler500 index. That was down from 58% gd/ex (353) in the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of March 5 was 455,439 MT, a 4-week high. That takes export commitments to 23.663 MMT, which is 957 of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 99% average sales pace. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money slicing back 3,455 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat as of Tuesday, taking it to just 22,345 contracts. Spec funds in KC wheat added to their new net long position by 7,559 contracts to 9,425 contracts.
Soybeans got some continued support from the spillover in crude oil as May was up 24 1/2 cents. Optimism over a meeting between US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese counterparts ahead of the expected Trump/Xi meeting at the end of the month also supported the market. May soybean meal was back up $5.50/ton, with bean oil another 86 points higher. USDA’s monthly WASDE update showed no changes to the carryout, at 350 mbu as a 5 mbu increase to imports was offset by a 5 mbu increase to crush. World stocks were down just 0.2 MMT to 125.31 MMT. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings back up slightly to 456,740 of soybeans sold in the week ending on 3/5. Commitments are now 36.49 MMT, which is 85% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 93% average pace. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding another 23,205 contracts to their net long of 222,107 contracts by 3/10.
Live cattle saw some weakness, down $3.675 on the week. The strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, CO is set to begin on Monday, unless things change over the weekend. Cash trade was softer acriss the country, down to $235-236. Feeders fell back another $6.15 this week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $6.35 week/week to $360.97. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week, narrowing slightly the Chc/Sel spread to $5.53. Choice boxes were up $10.70/cwt (2.8%) on the week to $397.92, as Select was $12.59 (3.3%) lower at $391.54 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 0.8% above the week prior and down 7.9% from the same week last year at 469.4 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.6% on a 9.9% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed a total of 25,443 MT of beef sold in the week ending on March 5, which was the largest sales total since February 2023. Shipments were the lowest for the calendar year at 11,427 MT. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 109,032 contracts, a reduction of 5,487 contracts on the week ending March 10.
Hogs felt some pressure this week falling $2.17 from the close of last week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $0.89 this week at $91.44 as of March 11. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $1.92 (2%) this week to $100.19/cwt. All primals were reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 1.9% from last week at 552.6 million lbs, which is 2.1% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 0.6% on a 1.4% drop in slaughter. The weekly USDA Export Sales report showed 23,723 MT of pork sold in the week ending on March 5, the lowest this calendar year. Weekly shipments were 38,897 MT, which was up from the week prior. CFTC data showed managed money adding another 3,668 contracts to their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 3/10, taking the total to 127,704 contracts.
Cotton futures rallied back to take all of the previous week’s weakness off the board, up 165 points from the previous Friday. The USDA WASDE report from Tuesday showed no changes to the US balance sheet, as stocks were left at 4.4 million bales. On the world balance sheet, stocks were up 1.25 million bales to 76.39 million. Export Sales from the week of 2/26 were tallied at 253,177 RB, with shipments at 370,131 RB. Total commitments are now 9.157 million RB, which is 81% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 94% average pace. Spec traders were cutting back 6,183 contracts from their net short position in the week of 3/10, taking the total to 66,754 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was up 6 points to 51.50 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
We start next week with the Monday morning Export Inspections report. Monday is also the release of the monthly NOPA report. EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning per normal. The Fed will also come out with their rate decision on Wednesday, with most looking for no changes. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning per normal. Monthly Cattle on Feed data will be out on Friday afternoon.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn has come a long way since the middle of January. After USDA seemingly put the low in with their bearish report. We have rallied more than 50 cents. The high on Sunday night spiked all the way to the 78.6% Fib retracement at $4.96 ¾, with a high 2 cents above that. The rally did not hold for a shooting star candlestick. That widely ignored though we haven’t take out the high that was put in at $4.98 ¾. The 61.8% at $4.84 ¼ was eventually broken on Wednesday, though Thursday was a gravestone doji. Those are mostly warning shots at this point. MACD is bullish on a rising ADX. The increasing bullish momentum says to ignore some of the other noisy bearish indicators (crossing in overbought stochastics, bearish candlesticks). If we can get to the 78.6%, $5 round number resistance will come into play rather quickly.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Let the Madness Begin. Ag Marketing Report 03/16/2026
This next week is the start of the biggest basketball tournament of the year. The Thursday through Sunday set of constant basketball is one of the more stacked days of the sports calendar. Normally, I watch the tournament as a casual fan of the craziness, pulling for the underdogs, but this year will have skin in the game with the Huskers bound for the field of 68. Lets just hope their showing is better than in the conference tournament. As for the madness this month in the grains, things got started off a little earlier in the month. The crude oil led rally took things to multi-month/year highs across several of the grains from corn, soybeans, to wheat. Can the madness continue or is the underdog’s run nearing its end?
Corn closed this week with a 6 ¾ cent gain in the May contract, a 1.47% gain, despite fading back the Sunday night spike higher. Crude was up another 8.59% this week to add in some premium. USDA had a report on Tuesday but changed very little other than raising Brazil production by 1 MMT and cutting Argentina by 1 MMT. World ending stocks were raised by 3.76 MMT to 292.75 MMT. EIA showed ethanol production back up 31,000 barrels per day in the week of 3/6, to 1.126 million bpd. Stocks were saw a draw of 757,000 barrels to 25.58 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data had corn sales totaling 1.53 MMT in the week of March 5. Export commitments are now 66.513 MMT, which is 79% of the USDA export forecast and slightly behind the 80% average pace of sales. Commitment of Traders data as of March 3 indicated managed money adding 140,297 contracts of futures and options to the spec fund net long position in the week ending on March 10. That was the largest Tuesday/Tuesday move to the long side since May 2019 and took the net position to 193,271 contracts.
The wheat complex was on the mixed side, but saw a late week rally to push things higher, Chicago was the lone exception, down 3 cents on the week. KC was up 6 1/2 cents in the May contract to lead the way, with May MPLS up 2 1/2 cents. A USDA report was out on Tuesday, though the market lacked focus, as the US balance sheet was left unchanged. World stocks were down just 0.55 MMT to 276.96 MMT. The Kansas Crop Progress report from Tuesday afternoon indicated winter wheat conditions at 56% good/excellent, or 348 on the Brugler500 index. That was down from 58% gd/ex (353) in the week prior. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of March 5 was 455,439 MT, a 4-week high. That takes export commitments to 23.663 MMT, which is 957 of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 99% average sales pace. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money slicing back 3,455 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat as of Tuesday, taking it to just 22,345 contracts. Spec funds in KC wheat added to their new net long position by 7,559 contracts to 9,425 contracts.
Soybeans got some continued support from the spillover in crude oil as May was up 24 1/2 cents. Optimism over a meeting between US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese counterparts ahead of the expected Trump/Xi meeting at the end of the month also supported the market. May soybean meal was back up $5.50/ton, with bean oil another 86 points higher. USDA’s monthly WASDE update showed no changes to the carryout, at 350 mbu as a 5 mbu increase to imports was offset by a 5 mbu increase to crush. World stocks were down just 0.2 MMT to 125.31 MMT. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings back up slightly to 456,740 of soybeans sold in the week ending on 3/5. Commitments are now 36.49 MMT, which is 85% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 93% average pace. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding another 23,205 contracts to their net long of 222,107 contracts by 3/10.
Live cattle saw some weakness, down $3.675 on the week. The strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, CO is set to begin on Monday, unless things change over the weekend. Cash trade was softer acriss the country, down to $235-236. Feeders fell back another $6.15 this week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $6.35 week/week to $360.97. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week, narrowing slightly the Chc/Sel spread to $5.53. Choice boxes were up $10.70/cwt (2.8%) on the week to $397.92, as Select was $12.59 (3.3%) lower at $391.54 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 0.8% above the week prior and down 7.9% from the same week last year at 469.4 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.6% on a 9.9% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed a total of 25,443 MT of beef sold in the week ending on March 5, which was the largest sales total since February 2023. Shipments were the lowest for the calendar year at 11,427 MT. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs at a net long of 109,032 contracts, a reduction of 5,487 contracts on the week ending March 10.
Hogs felt some pressure this week falling $2.17 from the close of last week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $0.89 this week at $91.44 as of March 11. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $1.92 (2%) this week to $100.19/cwt. All primals were reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 1.9% from last week at 552.6 million lbs, which is 2.1% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 0.6% on a 1.4% drop in slaughter. The weekly USDA Export Sales report showed 23,723 MT of pork sold in the week ending on March 5, the lowest this calendar year. Weekly shipments were 38,897 MT, which was up from the week prior. CFTC data showed managed money adding another 3,668 contracts to their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 3/10, taking the total to 127,704 contracts.
Cotton futures rallied back to take all of the previous week’s weakness off the board, up 165 points from the previous Friday. The USDA WASDE report from Tuesday showed no changes to the US balance sheet, as stocks were left at 4.4 million bales. On the world balance sheet, stocks were up 1.25 million bales to 76.39 million. Export Sales from the week of 2/26 were tallied at 253,177 RB, with shipments at 370,131 RB. Total commitments are now 9.157 million RB, which is 81% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 94% average pace. Spec traders were cutting back 6,183 contracts from their net short position in the week of 3/10, taking the total to 66,754 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was up 6 points to 51.50 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
We start next week with the Monday morning Export Inspections report. Monday is also the release of the monthly NOPA report. EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning per normal. The Fed will also come out with their rate decision on Wednesday, with most looking for no changes. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning per normal. Monthly Cattle on Feed data will be out on Friday afternoon.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn has come a long way since the middle of January. After USDA seemingly put the low in with their bearish report. We have rallied more than 50 cents. The high on Sunday night spiked all the way to the 78.6% Fib retracement at $4.96 ¾, with a high 2 cents above that. The rally did not hold for a shooting star candlestick. That widely ignored though we haven’t take out the high that was put in at $4.98 ¾. The 61.8% at $4.84 ¼ was eventually broken on Wednesday, though Thursday was a gravestone doji. Those are mostly warning shots at this point. MACD is bullish on a rising ADX. The increasing bullish momentum says to ignore some of the other noisy bearish indicators (crossing in overbought stochastics, bearish candlesticks). If we can get to the 78.6%, $5 round number resistance will come into play rather quickly.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.