About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Wheat:  Wheat closed a little higher in Chicago and a little higher in KC last week in response to the war in Iran.  The weekly export sales report showed stronger than expected demand.  Middle eastern countries are big buyers of world Wheat and many have been bombed by Iran now.  Conditions are too dry in much of the US Great Plains and too wet in the US Midwest and in western Europe for best production and quality potential.  Recent storm systems in the Great Plains could bring relief to crops produced there.  The weather is now featuring precipitation is forecast for parts of the Great Plains and Midwest along with variable temperatures.  USDA made no changes in the domestic WASDE data and minor changes in the world data.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

Unavailable today

 

Corn:  Corn was higher last week on more news that Iran had laid mines in the straits of Hormuz.  Shipping has been halted there and some ships have been blown up.   Wire reports note that US Corn cash markets are struggling to follow futures markets higher due to excessive supplies and the weekly export sales report showed demand was in line with expectations.  There are still excessive supplies as seen in the recent USDA reports after prices were trending higher on strong demand.  Temperatures in the Midwest should be variable for the next week.  Conditions are called good in Argentina and big production is expected there.  Oats were higher and trends are up on the daily and weekly charts.  USDA made no significant changes in the WASDE reports.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and the products were higher last week on more news that Iran has laid mines in the straits of Hormuz.  Shipping has been halted.  Big South American crops are being harvested and ideas are that Chinese buying could be interrupted due to the Iran war.  China has imposed new phyto controls on Brazil Soybeans to cu=t the flow of imports to the country.  South American sources said that the Brazil crops are now more than 50% harvested.  The tariff wars between the US and other countries add to cost of US Soybeans.  Temperatures will be variable in the Midwest this week.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice:  Rice closed a little higher last week.  Trends are still up after a big war related rally as world supplies and trade in Rice could be disrupted, especially in the region near Iran.  Traders anticipate less production this year in the US and around the world due to low prices.  Asian Rice prices are higher due to war concerns.  Trends are mixed as demand remains moderate for US Rice.  USDA made no significant changes in the domestic and world WASDE data.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Vegetable Oils:  Palm Oil futures were higher last week on strength in the other markets.  Demand ideas are in a state of flux right now with some looking for weaker demand and others looking for improved demand caused by the war.  Production is expected to drop in the short term.   Canola was a little higher last week on hopes for new Chinese demand from the Carney-Xi meetings and the u war with Iran that could be over soon. The selling seen also came ideas of big crops in South America.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton:   Cotton was higher last week on the war with Iran and as the weekly export sales report was somewhat positive despite demand fears as the war with Iran continues that could curb export demand for US Cotton,  Much of the demand for Cotton comes from the Middle East and Southeast Asia but thee costs of production have increased dramatically because of the war.  Overseas production in places like India and Brazil are expected to be high, but overall world production is expected by USDA to fall on reduced global planted rea and reduced yields.  USDA on Tuesday made no changes in the monthly domestic WASDE reports but increased ending stocks estimates in the world data.  Trends are turning up on the daily charts.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  Futures were higher last week but held the recent trading range.  Prices ar now at the top end of the short term range.  The Florida harvest is active but starting to wrap up and the weather remains benign for harvest progress as conditions are mostly dry.  The weather for the next crop is dry but seasonal.  Chart trends are mixed or up on the daily charts.  The weather is considered good for production in Brazil and Mexico.  Scattered showers are still reported in Brazil.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York and London were lower last week on ideas of good supplies available to the market.  Brazil said last week that that exports dropped significantly in February and exports might not improve that much in March due to shipping costs and concerns.  Vietnam producers have pulled back from selling as they have already sold quite a bit.  There are reports of very good conditions in Brazil and a large crop is forecast.  Brazil producers have stopped selling due to the recent fall in prices.  World production conditions are generally good.  Scattered showers are being reported now to improve tree condition in Brazil.  Mexico is in good condition, as is Central America.  Vietnam has scattered showers lately and conditions there are called good.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar:  New York was a little higher and London was near unchanged in a muted reaction to rallies in petroleum futures despite reports that the Iran war is causing the release of strategic petroleum reserves.  The war has increased could petroleum prices and could divert demand from Sugar production to production of ethanol/  President Ttrump has called for a quick end to the war but no one seems to agree with him that a quick end is coming.  Trends are mixed on the daily charts in New York but are turning down in London.  There are good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world.  The prospect of a big global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive but a rise in production in India and Thailand being offset by the war.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:   New York and London closed a little higher in choppy trading last week.  Short term trends are mixed in both markets.  A big main crop harvest has arrived in West Africa and rains have been positive for the next crop.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand due to the high prices seen last year and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Weak demand has led to a build-up on unsold supplies in both Ivory Coast and Ghana, while the prospect of another global surplus in 2026/27 are real.  Cocoa demand has fallen sharply after prices nearly tripled in 2024, prompting chocolate makers to reformulate ingredients and shrink the size of their bars.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

 

 

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322