Mine Your Own Business. The Energy Report 03/11/2026

The Iranian Regime is going out the same way they went in as cowards that want to inflict their warped sense of values by taking hostages. In the beginning in 1979  Iranian militants stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, a total of 66 Americans were initially taken hostage. Within the first two weeks of the crisis, Ayatollah Khomeini ordered the release of 13 hostages (women and African Americans). Another hostage was released due to illness on July 11, 1980. The remaining 52 were held for 444 days and released on January 20, 1981, just after Ronald Reagan’s inauguration. Now the Regime is sending signals that they plan to mine the Strait of Hormuz in effect holding the whole world hostage in a desperate attempt to hang onto power and continue to spread their terror tactics throughout the world.

 This Comes as the International Energy Agency  will announce today at 9 am eastern time on whether or not they will make its biggest ever release of oil reserves to help keep prices in check as tensions rise between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Officials say they’re looking to release 400 million barrels—more than twice the previous record, which was set when IEA countries sent 182 million barrels to the market back in 2022 in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This plan was brought up at an emergency meeting with energy leaders from all 32 IEA member countries on Tuesday. They’re expected to make a call on the proposal today, and if everyone’s on board, it’ll go ahead. But if even one country objects, the rollout could get pushed back.

Yet after reports  that Iran has placed mines in the Strait of Hormuz, leading President Trump to threaten to escalate attacks. U.S. forces said they had destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels as after the reports on Truth Social said that “If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY! If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction! Additionally, we are using the same Technology and Missile capabilities deployed against Drug Traffickers to permanently eliminate any boat or ship attempting to mine the Hormuz Strait. They will be dealt with quickly and violently. BEWARE! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Later he posted that “I am pleased to report that within the last few hours, we have hit, and destroyed, 10 inactive mine laying boats and/or ships, with more to follow! President DONALD J. TRUMP

The International Energy Agency is stepping up in a big way, suggesting its biggest ever release of oil reserves to help keep prices in check as tensions rise between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Officials say they’re looking to release 400 million barrels—more than twice the previous record, which was set when IEA countries sent 182 million barrels to the market back in 2022 in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This plan was brought up at an emergency meeting with energy leaders from all 32 IEA member countries on Tuesday. They’re expected to make a call on the proposal today, and if everyone’s on board, it’ll go ahead. But if even one country objects, the rollout could get pushed back.

  It’s not a lack of oil but the ability to move the oil.  Several major oil-producing nations—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait—have cut oil output by up to 6.7 million barrels per day. Venezuela’s oil production reached 1.16 million barrels per day in January, according to State TV. Saudi Aramco has announced that the East-West Pipeline will be operating at full capacity within two days.  The East West Pipeline can run 7 million barrels a day

In recent discussions, U.S. Energy Commissioner Jorgensen emphasized that any measures taken by the G7 regarding energy need to be temporary and targeted. Despite these efforts, there are concerns about the ability to defend against threats from regional actors, including Israel and the IRGC, due to insufficient naval resources. The top U.S. general is considering a range of options for escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz if tasked, and commentator Hegseth warned that if Iran attempts to disrupt the flow of oil through the Strait, it will face unprecedented consequences. Additionally, the Kirkuk pipeline (also known as the Kirkuk-Ceyhan or Iraq-Turkey pipeline) is currently inactive, with oil flows recently halted.

As of March 9-10, 2026, exports from Kirkuk fields to Turkey’s Ceyhan port via the pipeline were temporarily suspended following precautionary production halts prompted by escalating regional tensions—such as the US-Israel-Iran conflict, drone and missile attacks, and related security risks. Before the halt, flows were limited (between 50,000 and 200,000 barrels per day depending on the phase), but pumping has stopped and some crude is now diverted to local use only. Production in Kirkuk was suspended as a precaution, but is now restarting.

Oil prices also plummeted and we saw a surge in stock markets and precious metals after Energy Secretary Chris Wright lit a fire under the  stock market and tanked oil after posted that the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through those narrow, mine-threatened waters to keep global crude flowing amid the escalating conflict with Iran.

  Yet Secretary Write  took down his post down in under 30 minutes after it caused crude prices to dip below $80 a barrel, only for the White House to step in fast: Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt flat-out denied any such escort had taken place, calling it bunk, and a Department of Energy spokesperson explained the clip was deleted because staff had “incorrectly captioned” it—no Navy assets involved, though they left the door cracked open saying it’s an option if the president deems it necessary down the line.

Yet while official channels say no escort happened, we’re seeing real action on the water that suggests if it not happening it may happen, perhaps it is happening and they do not want us to know.

Take the Greek-operated Shenlong, a Suezmax tanker run by Dynacom Tankers Management Ltd.—this beast loaded up with about a million barrels of Saudi crude at Ras Tanura and slipped through the strait around March 8, heading for Mumbai, India. Ship-tracking data from Kpler, Lloyd’s List Intelligence, MarineTraffic, and Bloomberg shows it switched off its AIS transponder back on March 4 while approaching the chokepoint, went dark through the danger zone to avoid any Iranian patrols or potential targeting, then popped back online once clear. Dynacom’s been instructing crews on multiple vessels to do the same—flip the switch off before entering, dodge detection in the hot zone, and light back up on the far side.

And it’s not just going dark; some ships are getting creative with spoofing. In the past week or so, at least 30 vessels in the Gulf or transiting Hormuz have temporarily tweaked their AIS signals to flash “CHINA OWNER,” “ALL CHINESE CREW,” or “CHINA OWNER_ALL CREW” in hopes of deterring Iranian forces—leveraging Beijing’s tight ties with Tehran as a shield—before scrubbing the fake details once safe. Bulk carriers like the Iron Maiden and Sino Ocean pulled this stunt successfully, broadcasting Chinese links mid-transit then reverting. Iranian vessels and a handful of others keep patrolling or slipping through, often dark themselves, while mainstream commercial traffic has cratered—tanker transits down sharply since early March, with hundreds stranded inside the Gulf.

Bottom line: no confirmed U.S. military escort yet, but these shadow plays—dark transits, fake flags, and evasion tactics—are proof the chokepoint’s on a knife’s edge. If more brave (or desperate) captains keep threading the needle like the Shenlong did, we might see some oil trickle out, but one wrong move and prices could gush higher in a heartbeat. Geopolitics and energy? Still locked in that high-stakes dance, and nobody’s sitting this one out.1

The Wall Street Journal’s says strikes continued Wednesday, with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps saying it carried out its heaviest attacks since the start of the war. Kuwait and Qatar said they had intercepted missiles and drones, while the United Arab Emirates said its air-defense systems were responding to a new wave of attacks.b l

Several major oil-producing nations—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait—have cut oil output by up to 6.7 million barrels per day. Venezuela’s oil production reached 1.16 million barrels per day in January, according to State TV. Saudi Aramco has announced that the East-West Pipeline will be operating at full capacity within two days. In recent discussions, U.S. Energy Commissioner Jorgensen emphasized that any measures taken by the G7 regarding energy need to be temporary and targeted. Despite these efforts, there are concerns about the ability to defend against threats from regional actors, including Israel and the IRGC, due to insufficient naval resources. The top U.S. general is considering a range of options for escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz if tasked, and commentator Hegseth warned that if Iran attempts to disrupt the flow of oil through the Strait, it will face unprecedented consequences. Additionally, the Kirkuk pipeline (also known as the Kirkuk-Ceyhan or Iraq-Turkey pipeline) is currently inactive, with oil flows recently halted. As of March 9-10, 2026, exports from Kirkuk fields to Turkey’s Ceyhan port via the pipeline were temporarily suspended following precautionary production halts prompted by escalating regional tensions—such as the US-Israel-Iran conflict, drone and missile attacks, and related security risks. Before the halt, flows were limited (between 50,000 and 200,000 barrels per day depending on the phase), but pumping has stopped and some crude is now diverted to local use only. Production in Kirkuk was suspended as a precaution, and the export stream was disrupted earlier this week, with recent news confirming the halt and no firm timeline for resumption.

Bottom line here for trading continues to be to play both sides of the market with options is the movements should be enough whatever the outcome happens to be to make one side move large enough to cover the cost of the volatility.

Huge storms last night with natural gas prices trying to ignore oil moves but is getting caught up in the major oil moves. Fox Weather is reporting that Winter weather is looking to make a comeback this weekend after a brief warm spell provided some relief across the eastern U.S. this week. As giant piles of snow and ice have finally melted, an impactful winter storm is likely headed for the Northern Tier of the country this weekend. According to the FOX Forecast Center, gusty winds, heavy snow and cooler air are possible in the latter part of this week.

By this weekend, heavy rain and mountain snow will move out of the Pacific Northwest as a dip in the jet stream pushes across the Northern Rockies. According to the FOX Forecast Center, by Saturday, this dip will allow a surface low to develop across the Midwest.

Download the Fox Weather ap to keep up on this weather news that will move Nat gas also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network to stay up on Operation Fury. Call me at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.

 

Thanks,

Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report

Contributor to FOX Business Network

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