Oil Used as Target. The Energy Report 03/09/2026

Iran and OPEC used to wield their oil production as a weapon by withholding supply. Now, for what remains, the Iranian regime is targeting oil and gas, as well as neighboring countries and civilian targets. Reports indicate that about ten vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz have come under attack by Iran, in clear violation of international law, causing nearly all traffic through the world’s most important oil, LNG, and other goods chokepoint to grind to a halt.

WTI oil opened trading last night around $9800 a barrel and then surged in a massive buying spree as much as 30%   as traders   panicked after as the skies over the Middle East erupted in fury once more this past weekend of as the raging US-Israel-Iran war—ignited by the joint pre-emptive strikes on pushed into its most intense phase yet.    Weekend conflict and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz   led to a historic oil price spike, prompting some to take action with allies to help lower prices.     Oil hit a high of $119.48 per barrel before pulling back after a report that we might see a global oil Strategic Petroleum Reserve release as well as actions by Saudi Arbia to unleash more supply.

The International Energy Agency may coordinate the release, and Saudi Arabia has begun selling crude oil on the spot market and rerouting exports through the Red Sea as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapses amid escalating tensions.

Three G7 countries, including the US, support the plan, with US officials suggesting a 300–400-million-barrel release. G7 nations hold 1.2 billion barrels in reserve, and oil prices have dropped below $100/barrel following this news.

Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, is offering prompt (immediate or near-term) crude cargoes on the spot market at a premium to its March official selling prices (OSPs). These OSPs are Saudi Aramco’s fixed monthly benchmark prices for various crude grades, such as flagship Arab Light, established for different regions and serving as the baseline for long-term contracts. Typically, in a well-supplied market, spot or prompt sales trade at a discount to encourage quick uptake, but here Saudi Arabia is commanding higher-than-OSP prices for these urgent barrels—reflecting buyers’ willingness to pay extra for fast delivery despite (or because of) the surrounding chaos from the Iran-related disruptions.

This move suggests the Saudis are responding strategically to the war’s impact on regional flows, stepping in to provide additional supply without flooding the market at bargain rates. It indicates strong underlying demand or persistent tightness elsewhere, as they’re not desperate to unload volumes cheaply; instead, the premium pricing shows confidence that the market can absorb it at elevated levels.

Former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was selected to be the next Supreme Leader of Iran, according to multiple reports nyet it was Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei delivered a defiant message today. He dismissed any immediate discussions of a ceasefire while ongoing attacks persist and accusing the United States of seeking to seize control of Iran’s vast oil reserves as part of a broader plan to weaken and fragment the country. Speaking at a press conference in the capital—held in a school building recently damaged by strikes—Baghaei addressed reporters’ questions about potential mediation efforts amid the intensifying conflict involving U.S., Israeli, and Iranian forces.

When asked about the possibility of a ceasefire, Baghaei stated firmly: “As long as attacks continue, there is no point in talking about anything but defense and retaliation against enemies.” He emphasized that Iran’s military response was a legitimate exercise of self-defense under international law and the UN Charter, rejecting what he described as deceptive overtures from Washington.

Baghaei went further in his accusations against the U.S., declaring there was “no doubt” that American motives centered on Iran’s energy infrastructure. “Their design is clear, their enterprise is quite obvious—they aim at partitioning our country to take illegal possession of our oil riches,” he said, linking recent strikes on fuel depots and storage facilities to a predatory strategy rather than legitimate military objectives.

On Fox News President Trump said that “Iran had thousands of missiles pointed at all these Middle Eastern countries for the last four months. They were going to take over the Middle East, they were going to control it all: UAE, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. They had 1,200 missiles pointed at these countries.” “All these nations were afraid of Iran and they are not anymore… But they had reason to be afraid. We have knocked the hell out of them like no other nation could and they still have remnants left.”

The bottom line here is that the risk to the supply is still high it’s unlikely I think Iran can keep this up and as long as they have missiles they can create havoc in the meantime the rest of the world is taking actions Saudi Arabia is releasing tankers for sale Iraq it’s lowering its cost of oil so they’re trying to make more oil available but if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be shut and they can continue to not get traffic through there it’s going to be very difficult to get prices to stay down.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said “for my part, I would like to confirm our unwavering support for Tehran and solidarity with our Iranian friends.   Yet Bill Browder the  prominent British-American financier, investor, and activist and  CEO of Hermitage Capital Management (formerly one of the largest foreign investment funds in Russia),   a fierce critic of Vladimir Putin and the Russian government, particularly after his lawyer Sergei Magnitsky was killed in Russian custody in 2009 following efforts to expose a major tax fraud scheme involving Russian officials said that “Putin has made huge mistakes. This war is just a gigantic catastrophic mistake. A US think tank calculated his financial losses at about $700 billion. His personnel losses are 1.2 to 1.3 million men either dead or disabled, plus another million who have left the country.  He’s lost Syria, Iran, Venezuela—not to mention Armenia. To the extent that he wanted to contain NATO, he’s got two new NATO members on his borders: Sweden and Finland.  The economy is in a complete tailspin. It’s a catastrophe on every possible level for Vladimir Putin. If he was thinking this was some smart move, he’s set Russia back generations with his evil invasion of Ukraine.”

Back in our hemisphere Cuba  is facing one of its most severe energy crises in recent years, with massive power outages plunging much of the island into darkness and sparking widespread protests.

The blackouts, which began on March 4, have affected millions, particularly in the western regions including the capital Havana. Cuban authorities attribute the crisis to fuel shortages exacerbated by U.S. sanctions, while U.S. officials have seized on the unrest to predict the imminent collapse of the communist regime.

The outage originated from a failure at the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric power plant, one of Cuba’s largest, due to a boiler leak. This incident left two-thirds of the country without electricity, with some areas experiencing blackouts lasting up to 20 hours daily.

By March 7, repair crews had reportedly fixed the plant, but intermittent outages persisted, prompting the government to implement austerity measures to conserve energy. State media and officials blame the U.S. blockade for restricting oil imports, noting that the island’s energy infrastructure is operating at less than half capacity.

Protests erupted shortly after the blackout, with residents in Havana and other municipalities taking to the streets in darkness, banging pots and pans in traditional “cacerolazos.” Social media footage showed crowds chanting slogans not only demanding electricity but also calling for freedom and an end to the regime. This marks the second consecutive day of demonstrations, building on a wave of unrest that has simmered since 2024 amid food shortages, inflation, and chronic power fail.

We recommend hedging with both long and short options due to ongoing volatility. Recent escalation in the conflict saw Israeli (with reported U.S. involvement) airstrikes targeting Iranian oil and fuel infrastructure, including key refineries and storage depots near Tehran and Alborz province. These strikes caused major fires, fuel shortages, and several casualties, with thick smoke affecting local conditions. Iran responded by launching missiles at an Israeli refinery in Haifa. There were also unconfirmed reports of earlier explosions on Kharg Island, a critical export terminal, but no specific damage was verified that weekend.

It was just a month ago, when life at the gas pump felt almost too cheap. The national average for regular unleaded sat comfortably at $2.902 per gallon, with mid-grade at $3.396, premium at $3.764, and diesel—the lifeblood of trucks and commerce—holding steady at $3.634. Even E85 ethanol blend hovered low at $2.308. Drivers filled up without much thought.   Now escalating U.S. and Israeli strikes  the pas pain is already evident as gas prices have surged dramatically across every grade over the past month, reflecting the volatility and disruption in global oil markets. Regular unleaded now stands at $3.478 per gallon, marking a steep 48-cent increase and a jump of more than 16%. Mid-grade has risen to $3.976, up 58 cents, while premium fuel is at $4.342, also up 58 cents. Diesel, essential for trucking and commerce, has seen the most punishing increase—soaring to $4.656, more than a dollar higher than last month and representing a staggering 28% rise. Even E85, which remains comparatively affordable, is now $2.764, up 46 cents.

Nat gas is also rising  as it continues to get a bullish benefit from the Iran war—even as near-term U.S. LNG export capacity remains near effective maximum levels (recent flows averaging around 18 Bcf/d amid expansions, with terminals at high utilization), limiting immediate physical upside from export surges according to EBW Analytics.

Instead, gains stem mainly from  financial inflows into energy commodities as investors hedge broader Middle East supply risks,  a geopolitical risk premium spilling over from oil market chaos (e.g., threats to the Strait of Hormuz, which handles ~20% of global LNG), and ) expectations of sustained global LNG demand shifting toward U.S. supplies if Middle Eastern disruptions drag on (Qatar’s Ras Laffan outages from attacks, regional cuts, and Hormuz issues have driven European/Asian benchmarks like TTF up sharply—often 40-100%+ in recent weeks to multi-year highs around 60+ euros/MWh).

Recent action underscores this: April 2026 NYMEX futures rallied hard, trading in the $3.30–$3.50 range intraday and settling near $3.36–$3.40 (up ~5-6% in volatile sessions, with Globex levels hitting ~$3.36–$3.40 as of early March 9), extending weekly gains as war fears outweigh softer U.S. Spring demand. Forward curves for summer 2026 and winter 2026/27 have climbed on prolonged conflict scenarios boosting LNG pull from Europe/Asia, despite U.S. export ramps being constrained short-term.

According to Fox Weather, March 2026 is kicking off with warmer-than-usual weather across most of the central and eastern U.S. Expect plenty of mild air moving in, with above-average temperatures—especially during the first part of the month. It’s pretty much a sign that spring is on the way, and in some spots, we might even see temperatures soar 15 to 25 degrees above normal. That’s not just good news for anyone tired of winter; it also means there’s a higher chance for strong storms since the warm air will occasionally collide with lingering cold.  Fox Weather says we’re “springing into March,” and with these warmer air surges, it almost feels like summer is right around the corner. The Climate Prediction Center agrees, pointing to above-average temperatures for much of the central and eastern U.S. over the next few weeks. If you’re in the Midwest, Northeast, or South, you’ll notice highs in the 50s and 60s—or even warmer in the southern parts—which is way above what’s normal for this time of year. But don’t pack away your winter gear just yet; March can be unpredictable. We could still see quick cold snaps or some winter weather, and long-range forecasts hint that temperatures might drop back to normal or even below in some areas as we head toward the end of the month. Big swings are just part of the deal. So Download the Fox Weather Ap. Also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network! Call me if you need any help at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.

 

Thanks,

Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report

Contributor to FOX Business Network

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