Friday in the grain markets showed some rather decent strength, led by wheat. While the southern plains have been dry, and drought has been expanding, the forecast is improving, at least in the near term. Thus the move in the wheat on Friday and the rest of the grains can likely be explained by few outside factors and some money flow. With rising tensions in the Middle East, and threats of military action in Iran, the market was in risk on mode heading into the weekend. Crude oil has seen some strength recently, closing in on that $70 a barrel price level. The general feel of rising tides lifts all boats may be helping the ags to gain some footing.
Corn continues the choppy uptrend, as May was up 8 ¾ cents on the week. USDA reported several daily export sales, totaling 282,000 MT for the current marketing year, 154,000 MT for 2026/27 and 24,000 MT for 2027/28. EIA showed ethanol production slipping just 5,000 barrels per day in the week of 2/20, to 1.113 million bpd. Stocks were up just 58,000 to 25.646 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed corn sales at just 682,804 MMT in the week of February 19. Actual shipments via Inspections data showed 2.05 MMT shipped in that week. Export commitments are now 62.96 MMT, which is 75% of the newly revised USDA export forecast and slightly below the 77% average pace of sales. Commitment of Traders data as of February 17 indicated managed money cutting their net short in hamld by 13,548 contracts to 13,867 contracts by 2/24.
The wheat complex saw some late week gains push things back to positive or minimize the losses in the HRW case. KC was down just 4 ¾ cents in the May contracts. SRW was up 11 ¼ cents in May ,w tih May MPLS up 12 ¾ cents. Several large international tenders were announced this week, with Saudi Arabia and Algeria among the buyers. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of February 12 was 242,9644 MT. That takes export commitments to 22.998 MMT, which is 94% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 96% average sales pace. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money slashing 50,740 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat as of Tuesday, taking it to just 17,297 contracts, the smallest in over 3 years. Spec funds in KC wheat held their first net long position since August 2023 at 4,204 contracts.
Soybeans got some help this week from product strength, as May was up 17 ½ cents from last Friday. May soybean meal was up $6.70/ton, with bean oil 255 points higher. Much of the bean oil gains came from the EPA finally submitting their RVO mandates for 2026 to the White House OMB on Wednesday. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings slipping to 407,086 of soybeans sold in the week ending on February 19. Commitments are now 35.65 MMT, which is 83% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 91% average pace. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding another 20,591 contracts to their net long to 184,202 contracts by 2/24.
Live cattle were the weak spot of the ags this week, with April losing $9.77 from last Friday. Cash trade was softer, with $243-245 reported on the week. Feeders were also weaker, with March down $12.60. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $4.48 week/week to $372.79. Wholesale boxed beef were higher this week, narrowing slightly the Chc/Sel spread to $5.53. Choice boxes were up $13.14/cwt (3.6%) on the week to $379.84, as Select was $13.57 (3.8%) lower at $374.31 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 0.1% above the week prior and down 6.5% from the same week last year at 461.7 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.9% on a 10.1% drop in slaughter. Cold Storage data from Tuesday afternoon showed a total of 434.9 million lbs of beef stocks as of January 31, down 4.44% from last year but slightly above the previous month. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs adding back 2,296 contracts to their net long position in live cattle futures and options as of 2/24, taking the net long to 119,013 contracts.
Hog bulls extended the bounce back to this week. as April was up another $2.05 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.63 this week at $89.12 as of February 25. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $2.16 (2.3%) this week to $97.77cwt. The rib and ham were the weak spots, with the belly up $9.76. Weekly pork production was up 0.7% from last week at 548.4 million lbs, which is 0.6% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 1.4% on a 2.1% drop in slaughter. Pork stocks at the end of January were tallied at 410.4 million lbs, according to the NASS Cold Storage report on Tuesday. That was up 6.05% from last month and 0.77% larger than the same month last year. CFTC data showed managed money adding just 522 contracts back to their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 2/24, taking the total to 116,983 contracts.
Cotton futures steadied off this week, as May was down 2 points, with December up 40 points. Export Sales from the week of 2/19 were tallied at a marketing year high of 253,229 RB, with shipments at 193,005 RB. Total commitments are now 8.75 million RB, which is 78% of USDA’s new forecast and behind the 91% average pace, but catching up. Spec traders were busy cutting back 14,140 contracts from their net short position in the week of 2/24, taking the total to 65,368 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was raised by 179 points to 51.84 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
The first week of March starts out with the weekly Export Inspections report. Monday is also the release of the monthly Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports. EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning. March serial live cattle options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
New crop December corn has taken back the losses from the USDA report in January, plus some. The November high at $4.73 ½ has yet to be reached, with a trend line off the last two major highs at $4.71. The 78.6% Fib retracement resistance at $4.67 ¼ was broken on Friday, suggesting a test of the trendline, if not the Nov high. Futures have remained in a nice orderly uptrend and a rising regression channel, with upper boundary resistance at $4.70 ½ and support at $4.63. MACD says to stick with the trend, as ADX agrees. Bulls have done a good jobs of not letting too many acres switch to beans, but how aggressive are they going to be with a 2 bbu carryout projected?
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Risk and Rising Tides. Ag Marketing Report 03/02/2026
Friday in the grain markets showed some rather decent strength, led by wheat. While the southern plains have been dry, and drought has been expanding, the forecast is improving, at least in the near term. Thus the move in the wheat on Friday and the rest of the grains can likely be explained by few outside factors and some money flow. With rising tensions in the Middle East, and threats of military action in Iran, the market was in risk on mode heading into the weekend. Crude oil has seen some strength recently, closing in on that $70 a barrel price level. The general feel of rising tides lifts all boats may be helping the ags to gain some footing.
Corn continues the choppy uptrend, as May was up 8 ¾ cents on the week. USDA reported several daily export sales, totaling 282,000 MT for the current marketing year, 154,000 MT for 2026/27 and 24,000 MT for 2027/28. EIA showed ethanol production slipping just 5,000 barrels per day in the week of 2/20, to 1.113 million bpd. Stocks were up just 58,000 to 25.646 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed corn sales at just 682,804 MMT in the week of February 19. Actual shipments via Inspections data showed 2.05 MMT shipped in that week. Export commitments are now 62.96 MMT, which is 75% of the newly revised USDA export forecast and slightly below the 77% average pace of sales. Commitment of Traders data as of February 17 indicated managed money cutting their net short in hamld by 13,548 contracts to 13,867 contracts by 2/24.
The wheat complex saw some late week gains push things back to positive or minimize the losses in the HRW case. KC was down just 4 ¾ cents in the May contracts. SRW was up 11 ¼ cents in May ,w tih May MPLS up 12 ¾ cents. Several large international tenders were announced this week, with Saudi Arabia and Algeria among the buyers. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of February 12 was 242,9644 MT. That takes export commitments to 22.998 MMT, which is 94% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 96% average sales pace. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money slashing 50,740 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat as of Tuesday, taking it to just 17,297 contracts, the smallest in over 3 years. Spec funds in KC wheat held their first net long position since August 2023 at 4,204 contracts.
Soybeans got some help this week from product strength, as May was up 17 ½ cents from last Friday. May soybean meal was up $6.70/ton, with bean oil 255 points higher. Much of the bean oil gains came from the EPA finally submitting their RVO mandates for 2026 to the White House OMB on Wednesday. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings slipping to 407,086 of soybeans sold in the week ending on February 19. Commitments are now 35.65 MMT, which is 83% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 91% average pace. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding another 20,591 contracts to their net long to 184,202 contracts by 2/24.
Live cattle were the weak spot of the ags this week, with April losing $9.77 from last Friday. Cash trade was softer, with $243-245 reported on the week. Feeders were also weaker, with March down $12.60. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $4.48 week/week to $372.79. Wholesale boxed beef were higher this week, narrowing slightly the Chc/Sel spread to $5.53. Choice boxes were up $13.14/cwt (3.6%) on the week to $379.84, as Select was $13.57 (3.8%) lower at $374.31 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 0.1% above the week prior and down 6.5% from the same week last year at 461.7 million lbs. Year to date production is down 7.9% on a 10.1% drop in slaughter. Cold Storage data from Tuesday afternoon showed a total of 434.9 million lbs of beef stocks as of January 31, down 4.44% from last year but slightly above the previous month. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs adding back 2,296 contracts to their net long position in live cattle futures and options as of 2/24, taking the net long to 119,013 contracts.
Hog bulls extended the bounce back to this week. as April was up another $2.05 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.63 this week at $89.12 as of February 25. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $2.16 (2.3%) this week to $97.77cwt. The rib and ham were the weak spots, with the belly up $9.76. Weekly pork production was up 0.7% from last week at 548.4 million lbs, which is 0.6% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 1.4% on a 2.1% drop in slaughter. Pork stocks at the end of January were tallied at 410.4 million lbs, according to the NASS Cold Storage report on Tuesday. That was up 6.05% from last month and 0.77% larger than the same month last year. CFTC data showed managed money adding just 522 contracts back to their net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 2/24, taking the total to 116,983 contracts.
Cotton futures steadied off this week, as May was down 2 points, with December up 40 points. Export Sales from the week of 2/19 were tallied at a marketing year high of 253,229 RB, with shipments at 193,005 RB. Total commitments are now 8.75 million RB, which is 78% of USDA’s new forecast and behind the 91% average pace, but catching up. Spec traders were busy cutting back 14,140 contracts from their net short position in the week of 2/24, taking the total to 65,368 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was raised by 179 points to 51.84 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
The first week of March starts out with the weekly Export Inspections report. Monday is also the release of the monthly Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports. EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning. March serial live cattle options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
New crop December corn has taken back the losses from the USDA report in January, plus some. The November high at $4.73 ½ has yet to be reached, with a trend line off the last two major highs at $4.71. The 78.6% Fib retracement resistance at $4.67 ¼ was broken on Friday, suggesting a test of the trendline, if not the Nov high. Futures have remained in a nice orderly uptrend and a rising regression channel, with upper boundary resistance at $4.70 ½ and support at $4.63. MACD says to stick with the trend, as ADX agrees. Bulls have done a good jobs of not letting too many acres switch to beans, but how aggressive are they going to be with a 2 bbu carryout projected?
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.