The wheat market has been in the doldrums after spiking during the initial stages of the Russian/Ukrainian conflict. With few major up swings, the market crept to a 9-year low back in October. So when you look at the price action this week, it can get some bulls excited, as the wheat complex was the leader to the upside, with some assistance, of course, from oats. After feeling like what was a weight on the grains for the last couple years, the wheats are now trying to drag things higher.
Corn saw some weakness on the short week, as March was down 4 ¼ cents from last Friday. USDA released their armchair estimate for this year’s corn crop, pegging acreage at 94 million acres, down 4.8 million from last year if realized. The market paid little attention. EIA showed ethanol production up another 8,000 barrels per day in the week of 2/13, to 1.118 million bpd. Stocks were up another 341,000 to 25.588 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed corn sales at 1.47 MMT in the week of February 5. Export commitments are now 62.27 MMT, which is 74% of the newly revised USDA export forecast and slightly below the 75% average pace of sales. Commitment of Traders data as of February 17 indicated managed money at a net short of 27,415 contracts, another cut of 20,795 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex took control of things this week, as all three markets saw gains. March CBT was up another 24 ¾ cents, as the two week move is now 44 cents. March MPLS spring wheat saw a gain of 15 ½ cents on the week. March KC wheat was the leader of the three, up 29 ¾ cents. A drier nearby forecast and a longer term outlook through May suggesting below normal precip in the Southern Plains added to some short covering. USDA estimated all wheat average at 45 million acres in this week’s Ag Outlook Forum, down just marginally from last year if the armchair estimate is accurate. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of February 12 was 287,974 MT. That takes export commitments to 22.755 MMT, which is 93% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 94% average sales pace. CFTC data from the week of February 17 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options cutting 17,618 contracts from their net short at 68,037 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 8,887 contracts to 10,609 contracts in that week.
Soybeans shifted to a little more back and forth trade this week, as March was up just 4 ½ cents. Products added some marginal support, as March soybean meal was up 60 cents/ton, with bean oil 184 points higher. NOPA data, from their monthly release this week, showed a January record 221.56 mbu of soybeans crushed, 10.57% above the year prior. Friday provided a little late week pressure, as the Supreme Court ruled against the President’s use of the IEEPA for tariffs. The president responded with a blanket 10% tariff on all countries, which does expire in 150 days. USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum showed soybean acreage estimated at 85 million acres for this spring, up 3.8 million acres if realized. The actual survey driven report will be out at the end of March. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings bouncing from a MY low to 798,216 of soybeans sold in the week ending on February 12. Commitments are now 35.47 MMT, which is 83% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 90% average pace. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding another 40,463 contracts to their net long to 163,611 contracts by 2/17.
Live cattle saw Friday pare back some early week gains, as April was still up $1.37. Cash trade was slow to develop this week, with sales $245-247 in the north and up to $249 in the south. Feeders held up this week, as March was up $1.87 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $4.46 week/week to $377.371. Wholesale boxed beef were mixed this week, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $5.96. Choice boxes were up $2.23/cwt (0.6%) on the week to $366.70, as Select was $2.68 (0.3%) lower at $360.74 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 4.5% below the week prior and down 6.5% from the same week last year at 461.2 million lbs. Year to date production is down 8.2% on a 10.3% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs adding back 8,083 contracts to their net long position in live cattle futures and options as of 2/17, taking the net long to 116,717 contracts. Cattle on Feed data from Friday showed 1.736 million head placed in January, down 4.72% from a year ago. Marketings in January were down 13% at 1.626 million head. February 1 on feed totaled 11.505 million head, a drop of 1.8% from last year.
Hog bulls were in bounce back mode this week as April was back up $2.40 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 70 cents this week at $87.59 as of February 18. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up just $0.45 (0.5%) this week to $95.61/cwt. The belly and rib were the drivers to the upside. Weekly pork production was up 4.2% from last week at 549.4 million lbs, which is 1.7% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 1.4% on a 2.2% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money slashing a total of 16,820 contracts from the net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 2/17, taking the total to 116,461 contracts.
Cotton futures extended the gains this week, as March was up 105 points. Data from the Office of the Chief Economist via the Ag Outlook Forum showed the estimate for cotton acreage at 9.4 million acres this spring. Export Sales from the week of 2/12 were tallied at a marketing year high of 466,253 RB, with shipments at 172,615 RB. Total commitment are now 8.501 million RB, which is 75% of USDA’s new forecast and behind the 89% average pace, but catching up. Spec traders were busy adding another 3,906 contracts to their net short position in the week of 2/17, taking the total to 79,508 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.05 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
The last week of February is a more of a normal one, without any holidays. Monday will have the usual Export Inspections report, as well as first notice day for March cotton futures. Cold Stroage data will be released on Tuesday. EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning. March grain futures have first notice day on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
New crop November soybeans have had a nice little rally going from the January low. After a nobody’s home double bottom on January 14, futures have proceeded to take out all major Fibonacci retracement levels, with the 78.6% exceeded this week at $11.15. That held on Friday’s close. Holding a break above that would indicate a test of the November high at $11.31 ½. MACD is still bullish after a buy signal, with momentum still running bullish, though it has started to slip the last few days. Stochastics have crossed in overbought for a sell signal, though the rising ADX suggests putting more faith in the trend following MACD. Wednesday was a shooting star candlestick, with Friday a hanging man. Neither are exactly bullish. The lower boundary of the rising regression channel sits at $11.06, and found a few buyers on Friday’s tariff driven break. The 1/3 speedline off the Jan 2 low also held on Friday at $11.04 ¼.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Unlikely Hero. Ag Marketing Report 02/23/2026
The wheat market has been in the doldrums after spiking during the initial stages of the Russian/Ukrainian conflict. With few major up swings, the market crept to a 9-year low back in October. So when you look at the price action this week, it can get some bulls excited, as the wheat complex was the leader to the upside, with some assistance, of course, from oats. After feeling like what was a weight on the grains for the last couple years, the wheats are now trying to drag things higher.
Corn saw some weakness on the short week, as March was down 4 ¼ cents from last Friday. USDA released their armchair estimate for this year’s corn crop, pegging acreage at 94 million acres, down 4.8 million from last year if realized. The market paid little attention. EIA showed ethanol production up another 8,000 barrels per day in the week of 2/13, to 1.118 million bpd. Stocks were up another 341,000 to 25.588 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data showed corn sales at 1.47 MMT in the week of February 5. Export commitments are now 62.27 MMT, which is 74% of the newly revised USDA export forecast and slightly below the 75% average pace of sales. Commitment of Traders data as of February 17 indicated managed money at a net short of 27,415 contracts, another cut of 20,795 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex took control of things this week, as all three markets saw gains. March CBT was up another 24 ¾ cents, as the two week move is now 44 cents. March MPLS spring wheat saw a gain of 15 ½ cents on the week. March KC wheat was the leader of the three, up 29 ¾ cents. A drier nearby forecast and a longer term outlook through May suggesting below normal precip in the Southern Plains added to some short covering. USDA estimated all wheat average at 45 million acres in this week’s Ag Outlook Forum, down just marginally from last year if the armchair estimate is accurate. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of February 12 was 287,974 MT. That takes export commitments to 22.755 MMT, which is 93% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 94% average sales pace. CFTC data from the week of February 17 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options cutting 17,618 contracts from their net short at 68,037 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 8,887 contracts to 10,609 contracts in that week.
Soybeans shifted to a little more back and forth trade this week, as March was up just 4 ½ cents. Products added some marginal support, as March soybean meal was up 60 cents/ton, with bean oil 184 points higher. NOPA data, from their monthly release this week, showed a January record 221.56 mbu of soybeans crushed, 10.57% above the year prior. Friday provided a little late week pressure, as the Supreme Court ruled against the President’s use of the IEEPA for tariffs. The president responded with a blanket 10% tariff on all countries, which does expire in 150 days. USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum showed soybean acreage estimated at 85 million acres for this spring, up 3.8 million acres if realized. The actual survey driven report will be out at the end of March. Export Sales data showed soybean bookings bouncing from a MY low to 798,216 of soybeans sold in the week ending on February 12. Commitments are now 35.47 MMT, which is 83% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 90% average pace. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding another 40,463 contracts to their net long to 163,611 contracts by 2/17.
Live cattle saw Friday pare back some early week gains, as April was still up $1.37. Cash trade was slow to develop this week, with sales $245-247 in the north and up to $249 in the south. Feeders held up this week, as March was up $1.87 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $4.46 week/week to $377.371. Wholesale boxed beef were mixed this week, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $5.96. Choice boxes were up $2.23/cwt (0.6%) on the week to $366.70, as Select was $2.68 (0.3%) lower at $360.74 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 4.5% below the week prior and down 6.5% from the same week last year at 461.2 million lbs. Year to date production is down 8.2% on a 10.3% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs adding back 8,083 contracts to their net long position in live cattle futures and options as of 2/17, taking the net long to 116,717 contracts. Cattle on Feed data from Friday showed 1.736 million head placed in January, down 4.72% from a year ago. Marketings in January were down 13% at 1.626 million head. February 1 on feed totaled 11.505 million head, a drop of 1.8% from last year.
Hog bulls were in bounce back mode this week as April was back up $2.40 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 70 cents this week at $87.59 as of February 18. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up just $0.45 (0.5%) this week to $95.61/cwt. The belly and rib were the drivers to the upside. Weekly pork production was up 4.2% from last week at 549.4 million lbs, which is 1.7% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 1.4% on a 2.2% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money slashing a total of 16,820 contracts from the net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of 2/17, taking the total to 116,461 contracts.
Cotton futures extended the gains this week, as March was up 105 points. Data from the Office of the Chief Economist via the Ag Outlook Forum showed the estimate for cotton acreage at 9.4 million acres this spring. Export Sales from the week of 2/12 were tallied at a marketing year high of 466,253 RB, with shipments at 172,615 RB. Total commitment are now 8.501 million RB, which is 75% of USDA’s new forecast and behind the 89% average pace, but catching up. Spec traders were busy adding another 3,906 contracts to their net short position in the week of 2/17, taking the total to 79,508 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.05 cents/lb on Thursday.
Market Watch
The last week of February is a more of a normal one, without any holidays. Monday will have the usual Export Inspections report, as well as first notice day for March cotton futures. Cold Stroage data will be released on Tuesday. EIA data will be out on Wednesday morning per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday morning. March grain futures have first notice day on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
New crop November soybeans have had a nice little rally going from the January low. After a nobody’s home double bottom on January 14, futures have proceeded to take out all major Fibonacci retracement levels, with the 78.6% exceeded this week at $11.15. That held on Friday’s close. Holding a break above that would indicate a test of the November high at $11.31 ½. MACD is still bullish after a buy signal, with momentum still running bullish, though it has started to slip the last few days. Stochastics have crossed in overbought for a sell signal, though the rising ADX suggests putting more faith in the trend following MACD. Wednesday was a shooting star candlestick, with Friday a hanging man. Neither are exactly bullish. The lower boundary of the rising regression channel sits at $11.06, and found a few buyers on Friday’s tariff driven break. The 1/3 speedline off the Jan 2 low also held on Friday at $11.04 ¼.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.