10 to 15 days. The Energy Report 02/20/2026

President Trump says Iran has 10 to 15 days to make a decision give or take a little bit, but Fox News says that Iran is preparing for war as satellite images revealed tunnel sites. This comes after report shows that the US is moving a massive armada to the Middle East that makes last June’s Operation Midnight Hammer look like a scrimmage.  And while the oil market initially tipped after president trump said that they would give Iran 10 to 15 days to make a decision the Fox News report that Iran may be digging in may suggest that this match is already scheduled and will not be postponed.

Of course, some believe that President Trump is just bluffing trying to use the presence of U.S. military might to bring the Iranian leadership shoe they were common senses.  Yet with the U.S. is ramping up its military presence in the region to levels not seen since the 2003 Iraq invasion this would be the bluff of the century as the US has deployed 1/3 The US navy’s global fleet.

Reports indicate two supercarriers, USS Abraham Lincoln in the Persian Gulf and USS Gerald R. Ford are in the Mediterranean, are leading a force of about 20 warships and submarines, including guided-missile destroyers equipped with Tomahawks and air defense systems. Over 200 attack aircraft, such as F-22s and F-16s, plus around 100 support and intel planes, have been mobilized through Europe. Missile batteries like THAAD and Patriot are deployed at nearly 20 bases across Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. U.S. assets are also being positioned near the Iran-Turkmenistan border and Armenia, while Israel remains on high alert and coordinates closely.

And if it’s a bluff it appears that the Iranians aren’t going to give him at least initially.  Fox reported that Iran is rebuilding nuclear program despite Trump talks,  as satellite images show reconstruction activity at uranium enrichment plants targeted in 2025 strikes. Does that mean that president trump can’t trust the Iranians especially if they try to make a new deal.

So, the odds of them attack within 10 to 15 days give or take a little bit much more likely especially after president trump promised only publicly promised to come to the rescue of Iranian protesters if the regime violently suppressed them. So is this the cavalry being on the way all right a lot more than a cavalry but from the oil trading perspective you must prepare for the worst.  For oil it might be dangerous as the risk of a major price spike is real. Also, the risk of escalation could suck the market into a worm hole as it would catch many by surprise sending prices crashing to lower than they should be. But what does that realty mean? e

For a historical perspective , over the past 4 decades, and really longer,  geopolitical tensions involving Iran have repeatedly jolted oil markets, often leading to sharp but fleeting price spikes tied to fears of supply disruptions.

 During the 1978-79 Iranian Revolution, strikes halved Iran’s output from 6 mb/d to under 3 mb/d, contributing to a net global shortfall of 4-5% and pushing prices from $13 to $34 per barrel in a matter of months. Panic amplified the effect, with buyers hoarding amid fears of spreading unrest. President Jimmy Carter made things worse by implementing a so-called windfall profit tax that further unnecessary squeezed supply. Though it might have increased sweater sales as that was his new energy policy!

The 1980 Iran-Iraq War extended this volatility; Iran’s production plunged further, but prices peaked early at $37 per barrel in 1980 before declining as global demand softened and other producers offset losses—high prices cured high prices curbing consumption, forcing conservation but also because the Carter policies helped drive the economy into a recession leading to a multi-year slump.

Fast-forward to the 1990-91 Gulf War, Operation Desart Storm where Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait doubled Brent prices to $40 per barrel by October 1990, only for them to retreat once coalition forces restored stability and supply. The 2003 Iraq invasion followed suit, with a 46% price surge ahead of the conflict, but markets sold off post-invasion as disruptions proved minimal. More recent episodes echo this.

The 2020 U.S. strike killing General Soleimani spiked Brent by 5%, but prices retraced within weeks as retaliation stayed contained and no major supply hit materialized.

In 2025, U.S. bombings of Iranian nuclear sites pushed Brent to $81.40—a 10% jump—yet prices slid back below $70 once Iran’s response appeared de-escalatory, avoiding broader infrastructure attacks. As of early 2026, renewed U.S.-Iran tensions have lifted Brent above $70 amid strike fears, but without actual hits, the rally remains tentative and oil prices have been locked in a trading range as global supply is in balance.

The point is that normally war reactions follow a similar script: markets front-run risks.  Geopolitical shocks often blend demand destruction (via economic uncertainty) with supply fears, but history shows the former wins out unless chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz are truly threatened. This ties into the classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” dynamic in oil—traders bid up prices on whispers of conflict, only to unwind once events unfold without catastrophe.  We’ve seen it repeatedly: anticipation builds a risk premium, but if supply holds, the premium evaporates.

 For instance, ahead of the 1991 Gulf War, prices doubled on invasion rumors; post-resolution, they halved T

he 2019 Abqaiq attacks on Saudi facilities spiked prices 15%, but rapid repairs erased gains in days.

Wars typically become selling events after the initial surge, as resolution brings relief and higher prices naturally curb demand while spurring alternative supply.

Yet exceptions prove the rule. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion bucked the trend: Brent jumped 30% in two weeks to $139, but unlike prior conflicts, prices lingered above $100 for months due to sustained sanctions, export bans, and pipeline disruptions that removed 3-4 mb/d from markets long-term.

This wasn’t just a spike-and-fade; structural shifts like Europe’s pivot from Russian energy kept volatility elevated, with the war explaining over 70% of price swings in the first year. Similarly, if a U.S.-Iran clash escalates to Hormuz closures—handling 20% of global oil—prices could sustain $90-130 levels, far beyond a rumor-driven pop. President Biden’s mishandling of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and his floundering energy policy also added to the volatility. How did those Price caps on Russian oil work out?

 But absent a shutdown that, expect the pattern to hold build-up hype fades to post-event realism, especially in today’s   Trump’s Drill Baby Drill shale-buffered world where U.S. record output and Trumps pro energy policies removing government red tape that allows the industry to quickly react to events   mutes old-school shocks.

 At the same time why, you should never underestimate your enemy. I don’t believe Iran is in a situation where they can successfully shut down the Strait of  Hormuz for any extended period of time nor are they in a position to stand up against the United States  Military which would suggest that this could be an event or crisis spike in the drop of course that’s not saying that this price spike could be bigger than ones we’ve seen in the past especially if it looks like the US is going to dig into a longer term conflict.

Diesel fuel seems to be the real concern as it has been in recent attacks on Iran, we’ve seen the cracks spread edge up and diesel fuel is outpacing we’ve seen similar support in counseling but not to that extent

And if people are shocked about the big draws that we saw in yesterday’s Energy Information Administration report they shouldn’t be as we said before we believe that that report was a give back for the other two reports that showed huge builds and inventories.

Springtime weather is killing the natural gas market along with record production and natural gas continues to be under pressure is there a chance that winter will come back might be the only thing to give natural gas prices a boost and the only way you’re gonna find that out is to download the fox weather app

and while you’re at it stay tuned to the Fox Business Network because they are the only network in America that is truly invested in you

also don’t be afraid to call me my number is 888-264-5665 just leave a message and maybe I’ll call but you may maybe of course I’ll call. And if you’re shy you can e-mail me at pflynn@pricegroup.com