Long Live King Dollar. Manic Metals Report 02/13/2026

Just when you thought it was safe to go into the metals market, another headline reverses course, as the historic volatility in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium continues. Metals were trying to rebound from last month’s epic end-of-month plunge when a report from an exclusive article published by Bloomberg suggested that Russia might return to the US Dollar-based settlement system in return for a peace deal in Ukraine and a big  blow to other countries that are trying to move away from King Dollars dominance, Long Live the King!
Because one of the reasons we’ve seen the price of gold go to historic highs along with other metals like silver is because of the global cry by our adversaries to reduce their dependence on the good old US greenback, Their  attempt to do that led them to buy massive amounts of gold for their treasuries Yet that came at the expense of participating in the United states economy which is the strongest on the face of the earth.
And this report from Russia is suggesting that maybe they’re not only seeing the folly of their war in Ukraine but it’s separation economically from the United States and our allies just doesn’t seem to be good  business.  Even if President Vladimir Putin still has his vision of world domination or at least trying to get to the Soviet Union countries back under his guise the reality is that he can’t even win this quagmire in Ukraine. The body count of the Russian soldiers at some point will start taking a toll on the psyche of the Russian people and ultimately the blame will fall on the shoulders of Russian President Vladimir Putin .
And now Vladimir Putin’s version of the art of the deal suggests that this could include a joint oil and gas ventures with U.S. oil companies which Russia could really use to get their hands on US technology Russia could also use US technology to potentially work on shale production not to mention their visions of drilling for more oil in places like the Arctic. Ukraine has said that Russia offered the United States a $12 trillion economic cooperation proposal during confidential discussions linked to peace efforts surrounding the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made the claim while speaking to journalists during a closed-door briefing. He said the information came from Ukrainian intelligence agencies and concerned a proposal allegedly presented by Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.
But there were also talking about cooperation on critical raw materials, nuclear energy collaboration—including AI-linked ventures—and preferential conditions or as I call it sweetheart deals for US firms re-entering Russia. Kind of nice as we head into St Valentines Day
However,  to do that deal the US would need to lift sanctions on Russia, including restoring access to US Dollar transactions.  Western officials cited in the report are skeptical that the Kremlin would distance itself from China, given the latter’s critical role in supplying components for Russia’s war economy.  The memo revealed that Dollar integration would stabilize Russia’s balance of payments and its FX markets. For the US, this would reinforce the US Dollar’s reserve currency dominance and potentially rebalance global energy trade costs between China and America.
Now this deal would make sense for everybody involved if we could end the killing in Ukraine Russia could find a way to regain its stature in the global economy and of course it would mean that the European Community would have to find a way forgive and trust of Vladimir Putin again people forget that Europe loved Vladimir Putin during President Trump’s first term ignoring President Trump’s warnings about the growing threat of becoming too reliant on Russia’s oil and gas sector. Obviously that all changed after the Russia invasion of Ukraine under president Biden who famously said that maybe a small incursion might be OK into Ukraine seemingly opening the door for the invasion that happened some argue that Vladimir Putin was trying to protect the encroachment of Western countries and NATO that was surrounding its borders others say that Russia and Vladimir Putin it’s just a power hungry megalomaniac. Whatever the case a step towards a end of the war in Ukraine and a negotiated settlement would seem to be a very good outcome as opposed to never ending war.
Obviously, the push towards rare earth minerals is so huge and the CME Group once again is going to be the head of the curve by proposing a new rare earth Commodity Futures contracts or at least that’s the word on the street. In Reuters Exclusive the CME Group (CME.O), is working on a plan to launch the world’s first futures contract in rare earths, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, in a move that would allow governments, companies and banks to hedge exposure to a sector controlled by China.  Reuters say the rival Intercontinental Exchange (ICE.N), is also looking at rare earth futures, but is not as advanced in its planning as the CME, two of the sources said.
Reuters said that the CME declined to comment and ICE did not immediately respond to a request for comment and says that one of the main stumbling blocks in the West’s drive to cut dependence on China, which controls 90% of processed material, is banks’ wariness of providing finance to Western projects in an industry swayed by volatile prices. Rare earths are a group of 17 elements vital for the energy transition, electronics and the defense sector. They say that the CME, the world’s largest derivatives marketplace, is working on a new futures contract combining the two most important rare earths, neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr), said the sources, who declined to be named because the information has not been released publicly.
Reuters says that the two elements, typically traded as a combined product, are rare earths needed to make permanent magnets, which are used in EV motors, wind turbines, fighter jets and drones. “It’s such a key missing piece of the puzzle for the industry right now,” one of the sources said.
Reuters says that no final decision has been taken regarding any launch. One challenge is that rare earths are thinly traded and the market is tiny compared to those for most other metals futures. Rare earths are a crucial part of the West’s efforts to work together to increase production of critical minerals, with the U.S. last week unveiling a preferential trade bloc with allies and launching a $12 billion strategic stockpile.In the most high-profile U.S. deal in the rare earths sector, Washington agreed a multibillion-dollar package last July with MP Materials (MP.N), opens new tab, including a 15% stake and a price floor based on the NdPr price.
Of course this is gonna be a big move for the number of states in the world because right now because of China’s dominance they set the prices.  Currently, NdPr prices are set in China, reflected in indexes from price reporting agencies such as Fast markets, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and Shanghai Metals Market. China has two exchanges for the spot trading of rare earths – Ganzhou Rare Metal Exchange and Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has said it plans to offer rare earths futures in the future. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence has also started publishing rare earth prices based in Europe and North America, where volumes are thin.
According to SMM, NdPr prices based in China have surged by 40% so far this year, to the highest since July 2022, but in a sign of their volatility, tumbled by 50% during the 15 months to May 2023.Key rare earth prices for neodymium and praseodymium have rallied by 41% so far in 2026
Key rare earth prices for neodymium and praseodymium have rallied by 41% so far in 2026
Many rare earth mines and processing facilities outside of China struggle to get financing because banks are unable to forecast their future revenue and producers are unable to hedge potential price declines without futures.
Futures would also help industrial magnet consumers like EV makers hedge their exposure to magnet prices. CME has already successfully launched futures in critical minerals lithium and cobalt, used in EV batteries. Earlier this month, the CME reported fourth-quarter profit that beat Wall Street estimates and average daily volume that rose 7.5% to a record 27.4 million contracts according to Reuters.
copper, palladium, and platinum all got slammed, and some say the real drivers behind this pullback is a  combo of macro surprises, policy jitters, and ongoing sector realities.
Now there’s been a lot of debate about whether president trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh is the next fed chair sparked a big sell off in prices and listen psychologically it did remember there were crazy people out there that suggested that president trump was going to take over the Federal Reserve and we would no longer have a independent Federal Reserve and of course people bought precious metals on that mantra
Yet the markets saw that as a hawkish choice because they know that Kevin Warsh is not the type of person that is going to be a rubber stamp for president trump and his policies his credentials are incredible and he has always been tough on inflation but at the same time he reflects the realities of the fact that this economy is at the point where the higher interest rates are somewhat restrictive in fact rates should be more loose at a time where artificial intelligence is reconfiguring the jobs sector. Inflation pressures are definitely easing and president trump’s policies of pro-growth are going to bring down inflation over time and of course Kevin Moorish is smart enough to know that tariffs do not cause inflation which was one of the many mistakes made by the Federal Reserve bank under Jerome Powell the same man who continued to cover for President Biden’s ridiculous spending by trying to sell us on the fact that the inflation that we were seeing was all transitory.
Well that transitory inflation of course that stuck around a little bit longer was another major buy factor in the precious metals and that is another reason of course that we’ve seen gold and silver pullback but really on the fundamentals of copper the long term outlook for copper is extremely bullish with the demand for electricity may be going up as much as 50% in the next 15 years and that’s going to take a lot of copper and while we’ve been in a supply deficit there seems to be a suggestion that we could still see a surplus in 2026  and could help alleviate some of the immediate pressure caused by inventory accumulation and concerns over tariffs.  Copper prices dropped nearly 3% during the market rout on yesterday.
Look, some folks are out there sounding the alarm: palladium’s long-term outlook looks tough because of the big shift to electric vehicles. EVs don’t need those gasoline catalytic converters, where palladium does most of its heavy lifting (about 80% of demand!). It was already trading at a discount to platinum back in 2025, thanks to those recycling surpluses flooding the market, and yeah, the 2026 crash piled on the pain. As EV adoption supposedly keeps “accelerating,” the bearish chatter just won’t quit.
But hold on a second—pump the brakes! Is this EV boom really unstoppable, or are we seeing some serious cracks? Policy flip-flops in the US (hello, subsidy rollbacks and mpg standard tweaks), China dialing back incentives, and real-world affordability headaches are slowing things down more than the headlines admit.
Hybrids are hanging tough, and if the transition rolls back even a bit—like some sharp analysts are pointing out—palladium demand from catalytic converters could stay resilient way longer than the doomsayers think. We’re talking potential upside surprises here, not a death spiral. Cheer up—palladium might just have more legs than the EV evangelists want you to believe!
Over on platinum, things look even brighter. Supply deficits are still locked in through at least 2029 (thanks to those ongoing headaches in South Africa—power issues, deep mines, underinvestment—you name it). Miners aren’t rushing new projects despite higher prices, so tightness isn’t going anywhere fast. Sure, automotive demand is shifting away from diesel engines (another headwind), and the broad precious metals sell-off dragged it lower too—platinum dropped over 5% on that wild February 12 ride, showing how it can get caught in speculative unwinds.
But here’s the upbeat part: even with some auto transitions, the EV slowdown means less aggressive demand erosion than feared. Structural deficits, growing industrial uses (hydrogen fuel cells, anyone?), and jewelry demand in places like China could keep platinum shining. This isn’t a fading star—it’s a metal with real staying power and upside potential if the macro calms down. While the EV push is real, it’s overhyped, bumpy, and facing real pushback in 2026. Don’t buy the narrative that palladium’s doomed or platinum’s vulnerable forever—the fundamentals
Then the January jobs report hit (released early February): nonfarm payrolls jumped 130,000—way above expectations—and unemployment dipped to 4.3%. Strong numbers like that crushed hopes for quick rate cuts, triggering a full-on “liquidity flush.” Margin calls fired off, stop-losses got hit, and profit-takers piled in after those massive parabolic gains in 2025. We’re talking trillions wiped out across precious and industrial metals in the chaos.  Things got even wilder around February 12 with another sharp plunge—tied to dropping tech stocks and fresh doubts on Fed easing. Silver got crushed over 10%, and the selling spilled right over to our metals crew.
Bottom line: This looks like a sharp, overdue correction in overheated markets, not the end of the story. Structural tailwinds—like electrification, AI-driven demand, and persistent supply issues—could fuel a bounce once the macro dust settles. But right now, keep your eyes on the dollar, Warsh confirmation headlines, and the next round of jobs/inflation prints.
So if you’re trading the future, it’s you better stay sharp and nimble and stay tuned to the Fox Business Network because they’re the only network in America that’s truly invested in you! Also make sure you sign up for my energy reports and get your account open today by calling me at 888-264-5665 or e-mail me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.
Stay sharp and nimble out there—the markets never ring a bell at the top or bottom.