For the first week of February, I was not expecting to see temperatures reaching the upper 50s in northeast Nebraska. Normally, we would be shoveling snow or nearly getting frostbite heading out to warm up the vehicle. However, I found myself venturing out to let my out chickens out in a t-shirt this week. That is not the norm and has been getting me to thinking spring is close. Of course, my head is saying, “IT’S FEBRUARY!” so don’t get your hopes up. This week we also got an update from the President that he asked China to raise their limits on soybean commitments to 20 MMT. That is a steep improvement from the 12 MMT they have already purchased, but it is too good to be true? Based off the fact that they met their previous 12 MMT number, we have good reason to believe they will get there, which would help to tighten down the US balance sheet. Still, we are beginning to fight a large Brazilian crop, so we are fighting some gravity. Don’t get too far ahead of your skis and remember to take advantage of the rally!
Corn was back and forth this week, falling late on Friday, with March holding onto a 2 cent gain. EIA showed ethanol production totaling 956,000 barrels per day in the week of 1/30, down 158,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Stocks were back down 264,000 to 25.136 million barrels. Monthly Grain Crushings data from Monday showed December corn used for ethanol at 488.26 million bushels. That was a record high for the month and was 5.1% above the same week last month. USDA Export Sales data showed corn sales at 1.04 MMT in the week of January 29. Export commitments are now 58.735 MMT, which is 72% of the USDA export forecast and ahead of the 71% average. Commitment of Traders data as of February 3 indicated managed money at a net short of 68,786 contracts, a reduction of 3,464 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex was a weak spot this week. March CBT was back down 8 1/4 cents, with March KC 13 1/2 cents lower on the week. March MPLS spring wheat was 6 1/4 cents in the red. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of January 29 was 373,877 MT. That takes export commitments to 21.974 MMT, which is 90% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 91% average sales pace. NASS Flour Milling data from Monday showed 227.58 million bushels of wheat ground for flour in from October-December. That was down 3.2 million bushels from the same period in 2024. CFTC data from the week of February 3 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options slashing another 12,988 contracts from their net short at 81,755 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 1,485 contracts to 8,844 contracts in that week.
Soybeans were in rally mode for the back half of the week, with March 51 cents higher. Products added some support this week, as March soybean meal was up $10.00/ton, with bean oil 185 points higher. A President Trump post sparked this week’s rally, has he spoke with China’s President Xi and requested the country’s soybean commitments be upped to 20 MMT, vs. the current 12 MMT. Weekly Export Sales data showed a MY low 436,949 MT of soybeans sold in the week ending on January 29, back down from last week’s. Commitments are now 34.29 MMT, which is 80% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 88% average pace. USDA’s monthly Fats & Oils report from Monday showed a total of 229.84 million bushels of soybeans crushed in December. That was still 4.24% above November and 5.59% larger yr/yr. CFTC data via the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding another 11,511 contracts to their net long to 28,832 contracts by 2/3.
Live cattle saw strength for much of the week, despite a hiccup on Thursday, as February was up $1.90. Cash trade was higher again this week, with USDA confirming $240-241 in the north and $242-245 sales in the south. Feeders gained some ground, as March was $7.15 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $4.47 week/week to $375.16. Workers at the Greeley, CO JBS plant authorized to go on strike on Wednesday, adding pressure on Thursday, though no timeline was presented. Wholesale boxed beef prices slipped back higher this week, with the Chc/Sel spread at $4.80. Choice boxes were back down $3.77/cwt (1.0%) on the week to $369.33, as Select was $2.59 (0.7%) higher at $364.53 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 1.1% above the week prior but down 9.7% from the same week last year at 477.5 million lbs. Year to date production in the first several weeks of the year is down 9.7% on a 11.7% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs adding 8,846 contracts to their net long position in live cattle futures and options as of 2/3, taking the net long to 114,531 contracts.
Hog bulls gained back some traction, with April heading to new contract highs and February closing the week up 12 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 34 cents this week at $86.06 as of February 3. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down 45 cents (-0.5%) this week to $93.77/cwt. The loin and belly were the only primals reported higher on the week. Weekly pork production was up 3.5% from last week at 570.3 million lbs, which is 4.0% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 1.7% on a 2.7% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money adding a total of 15,051 contracts to the net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of Tuesday, taking the total to 128,857 contracts.
Cotton futures extended the recent losses this week, as March was down 211 points. Export Sales from the week of 1/29 were tallied at 249,836 RB, with shipments at 235,313 RB. Total commitment are now 7.8 million RB, which is 68% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 86% average pace. Spec traders were busy adding 6,717 contracts to their net short position in the week of 2/3, taking the total to 71,746 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 49.78 cents/lb on Thursday, down 42 points from the week prior.
Market Watch
Next week start off with the weekly Export Inspections report, as Monday is also First Notice Day for February live Cattle. Tuesday will see the release of the monthly WASDE data. On Wednesday, EIA data will be out per the usual schedule. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday. February lean hog futures and options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: March Soybeans
March beans put on a show this week. Ever since the double bottom and MACD buy signal, bulls have been in near full control. In the process we had a inverted head and shoulders formation, meeting the count on Friday. The rally has pushed through the 38.2% and 50% Fib retracements, with the 61.8% at $11.21 containing things on Friday. Futures did break above the 2/3 speedline at $11.06 on Thursday, holding above it on Friday. That suggests a test of the high at $11.72 ¾. With that in mind stochastics are still in neutral and MACD is bullish, which says to stay bullish. Friday was a shooting star candlestick though there were likely a few longs taking some money off the table ahead of the weekend.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Getting Your Hopes Up. Ag Marketing Report 02/09/2026
For the first week of February, I was not expecting to see temperatures reaching the upper 50s in northeast Nebraska. Normally, we would be shoveling snow or nearly getting frostbite heading out to warm up the vehicle. However, I found myself venturing out to let my out chickens out in a t-shirt this week. That is not the norm and has been getting me to thinking spring is close. Of course, my head is saying, “IT’S FEBRUARY!” so don’t get your hopes up. This week we also got an update from the President that he asked China to raise their limits on soybean commitments to 20 MMT. That is a steep improvement from the 12 MMT they have already purchased, but it is too good to be true? Based off the fact that they met their previous 12 MMT number, we have good reason to believe they will get there, which would help to tighten down the US balance sheet. Still, we are beginning to fight a large Brazilian crop, so we are fighting some gravity. Don’t get too far ahead of your skis and remember to take advantage of the rally!
Corn was back and forth this week, falling late on Friday, with March holding onto a 2 cent gain. EIA showed ethanol production totaling 956,000 barrels per day in the week of 1/30, down 158,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Stocks were back down 264,000 to 25.136 million barrels. Monthly Grain Crushings data from Monday showed December corn used for ethanol at 488.26 million bushels. That was a record high for the month and was 5.1% above the same week last month. USDA Export Sales data showed corn sales at 1.04 MMT in the week of January 29. Export commitments are now 58.735 MMT, which is 72% of the USDA export forecast and ahead of the 71% average. Commitment of Traders data as of February 3 indicated managed money at a net short of 68,786 contracts, a reduction of 3,464 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex was a weak spot this week. March CBT was back down 8 1/4 cents, with March KC 13 1/2 cents lower on the week. March MPLS spring wheat was 6 1/4 cents in the red. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of January 29 was 373,877 MT. That takes export commitments to 21.974 MMT, which is 90% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 91% average sales pace. NASS Flour Milling data from Monday showed 227.58 million bushels of wheat ground for flour in from October-December. That was down 3.2 million bushels from the same period in 2024. CFTC data from the week of February 3 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options slashing another 12,988 contracts from their net short at 81,755 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 1,485 contracts to 8,844 contracts in that week.
Soybeans were in rally mode for the back half of the week, with March 51 cents higher. Products added some support this week, as March soybean meal was up $10.00/ton, with bean oil 185 points higher. A President Trump post sparked this week’s rally, has he spoke with China’s President Xi and requested the country’s soybean commitments be upped to 20 MMT, vs. the current 12 MMT. Weekly Export Sales data showed a MY low 436,949 MT of soybeans sold in the week ending on January 29, back down from last week’s. Commitments are now 34.29 MMT, which is 80% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 88% average pace. USDA’s monthly Fats & Oils report from Monday showed a total of 229.84 million bushels of soybeans crushed in December. That was still 4.24% above November and 5.59% larger yr/yr. CFTC data via the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding another 11,511 contracts to their net long to 28,832 contracts by 2/3.
Live cattle saw strength for much of the week, despite a hiccup on Thursday, as February was up $1.90. Cash trade was higher again this week, with USDA confirming $240-241 in the north and $242-245 sales in the south. Feeders gained some ground, as March was $7.15 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $4.47 week/week to $375.16. Workers at the Greeley, CO JBS plant authorized to go on strike on Wednesday, adding pressure on Thursday, though no timeline was presented. Wholesale boxed beef prices slipped back higher this week, with the Chc/Sel spread at $4.80. Choice boxes were back down $3.77/cwt (1.0%) on the week to $369.33, as Select was $2.59 (0.7%) higher at $364.53 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 1.1% above the week prior but down 9.7% from the same week last year at 477.5 million lbs. Year to date production in the first several weeks of the year is down 9.7% on a 11.7% drop in slaughter. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs adding 8,846 contracts to their net long position in live cattle futures and options as of 2/3, taking the net long to 114,531 contracts.
Hog bulls gained back some traction, with April heading to new contract highs and February closing the week up 12 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 34 cents this week at $86.06 as of February 3. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down 45 cents (-0.5%) this week to $93.77/cwt. The loin and belly were the only primals reported higher on the week. Weekly pork production was up 3.5% from last week at 570.3 million lbs, which is 4.0% above the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 1.7% on a 2.7% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money adding a total of 15,051 contracts to the net long position in lean hog futures and options in the week of Tuesday, taking the total to 128,857 contracts.
Cotton futures extended the recent losses this week, as March was down 211 points. Export Sales from the week of 1/29 were tallied at 249,836 RB, with shipments at 235,313 RB. Total commitment are now 7.8 million RB, which is 68% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 86% average pace. Spec traders were busy adding 6,717 contracts to their net short position in the week of 2/3, taking the total to 71,746 contracts net short in cotton futures and options. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 49.78 cents/lb on Thursday, down 42 points from the week prior.
Market Watch
Next week start off with the weekly Export Inspections report, as Monday is also First Notice Day for February live Cattle. Tuesday will see the release of the monthly WASDE data. On Wednesday, EIA data will be out per the usual schedule. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday. February lean hog futures and options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: March Soybeans
March beans put on a show this week. Ever since the double bottom and MACD buy signal, bulls have been in near full control. In the process we had a inverted head and shoulders formation, meeting the count on Friday. The rally has pushed through the 38.2% and 50% Fib retracements, with the 61.8% at $11.21 containing things on Friday. Futures did break above the 2/3 speedline at $11.06 on Thursday, holding above it on Friday. That suggests a test of the high at $11.72 ¾. With that in mind stochastics are still in neutral and MACD is bullish, which says to stay bullish. Friday was a shooting star candlestick though there were likely a few longs taking some money off the table ahead of the weekend.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.