There is an old saying that rising tides lift all boats. In relation to the markets this week, the strength from the outside commodities (the heavy metals and energy) are the rising tides. The boats are the gains which have been pressured and are looking for a helping hand. The thought would be that the commodities getting the buying would spillover to the others in the ag part of the world. Well, the strength was true until Friday, when the month end and risk off took a bunch of premium off the table. The other part of that saying is that falling tides sink all ships. Now, grains never really got much of the lifting of the boat, as gold and silver shot to record highs, so who’s to say they’ll get the sinking of the ships.
Corn was back and forth this week, with March closing down 2 ¼ cents from last Friday. EIA showed updated ethanol production totals at 1.114 million barrels per day in the week of 1/16, down just 5,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Stocks were back down 339,000 to 25.4 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data from Friday buyers continuing to come in, with corn sales at 1.65 MMT in the week of January 22. Export commitments are now 57.694 MMT, which is 71% of the USDA export forecast and ahead of the 67% average. Census data showed 7.305 MMT (287.6 mbu) of corn shipped during November, the second largest total for the month on record. Distillers exports were at 933,557 MT, with ethanol exports a record for November at 211.33 million gallons. Commitment of Traders data as of January 27 indicated managed money at a net short of 72,050 contracts, a reduction of 9,274 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex saw some continued strength this week. March CBT was up 8 1/2 cents, with March KC 4 cents higher on the week. March MPLS spring wheat was 3 1/4 cents in the green. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of January 22 was back down from the previous 9-week high to 558,201 MT. That takes export commitments to 21.595 MMT, which is 88% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 89% average sales pace. Census trade data saw wheat exports at 1.616 MMT (59.4 mbu) during November, a 5-year high for the month. CFTC data from the week of January 27 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options slashing 15,957 contracts from their net short at 94,743 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 2,689 contracts to 10,329 contracts in that week.
Soybeans saw some late weakness this week, taking March 3 ½ cents lower than last Friday. Products added to the pressure this week, as March soybean meal was down $6.30/ton, with bean oil 48 points lower. Weekly Export Sales data showed 818,972 MT sold in the week ending on January 22, back down from last week’s marketing year high. Commitments are now 33.85 MMT, which is 79% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 87% average pace. Census data tallied November soybean exports at just 4.29 MMT (157.73 mbu), the lowest total for the month since 2007. CFTC data via the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding back 7,261 contracts to their net long to 17,321 contracts by January 27.
Live cattle were stronger this week despite the Friday pressure, as February was chasing cash and up 95 cents from last week. Cash trade was higher again this week, with USDA confirming $238 – 240 sales, mostly $3-4 higher. Feeders gained some ground, as March was up a dime on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $7.21 week/week to $370.69. An update from APHIS this showed another 4 new active cases of new world screwworm in southern Tamaulipas, a Mexican state that borders the US, taking the total to 13 active cases. Wholesale boxed beef prices slipped back lower this week, with the Chc/Sel spread at $3.62. Choice boxes were back down $3.36/cwt (-0.9%) on the week to $365.56, as Select was 45 cents (-0.1%) higher at $361.94 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 0.8% below the week prior and down 9.6% from the same week last year at 475.1 million lbs. Year to date production in the first three weeks of the year is down 10.5% on a 12.6% drop in slaughter. Census trade data showed beef exports on a carcass basis at 190.4 million lbs in November, the lowest since 2009. The annual Cattle Inventory report from USDA showed all cattle and calves down 0.37% from last year at 86.155 million head. Beef cows were tallied at 27.607 million head, down 1.02%, with replacement heifers up 0.89% yr/yr at 4.714 million head.
Hogs fell lower this week as February was down $1.10. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $3.32 this week at $85.72 as of January 29. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down $1.53 (-1.6%) this week to $94.22/cwt. The picnic was the only primals reported higher on the week. Weekly pork production was down 2.4% from last week at 555.6 million lbs, which 0.4% below the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 2.7% on a 3.6% drop in slaughter. Pork exports in November totaled 613.1 million lbs according to Census data converted to a carcass basis. That was 4.9% below last year. CFTC data had spec traders adding 16,388 contracts to their net long in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on January 27 to 113,806 contracts.
Cotton futures were weaker again this week, down 64 points from last Friday. Export Sales from the week of 1/22 were tallied at 203,666 RB, with shipments at 257,036 RB. Total commitment are now 7.553 million RB, which is 66% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 84% average pace. Commitment of Traders data for the week of January 27 showed spec funds in cotton futures and options adding 13,077 contracts to their net short position of 65,029 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.23 cents/lb on Thursday down 76 points from the week prior.
Market Watch
Assuming there is no government shutdown, next week starts with the normal release of the weekly Export Inspections report. NASS will also release their monthly domestic demand reports, with the Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems report expected on Monday. EIA data will be out on Wednesday per the usual schedule, with the weekly release of Export Sales data on Thursday. February liver cattle options expire on Friday, as week as March cotton options.
Tech Talk: March Corn
Corn has two sides of the coin. Supply is burdensome with the massive crop on the ground that we need to get rid of. The other side is demand that nothing is short of phenomenal, especially on any sort of price break. That is shown in the March corn chart, that collapsed on the USDA report but has garnered some strength and taken some of that back. In terms of numbers, we’ve retraced just over 38.2% ($4.32 ½) of the drop from the $4.57 high. That is all that bears have been willing to give. Other resistance comes via the 18-day moving average at $4.29 ½. Stochastics are in high neutral and looking to cross. That is not the same as a sell signal but indicates bulls are out of shape. MACD is bullish, but on a low ADX. We are also in a bear flag formation, with the uptrend off the post-USDA report low at $4.28. That is holding, which Is a key spot for the bulls. The count from the flagpole is 31 ½ cents on any break. That suggests a test below $4 if we break here. There is also a rising regression channel, with support at $4.26 ½ holding on Friday and the upper boundary at $4.33 ½.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Rising Tides or Sinking Ships. Ag Marketing Report 02/02/2026
There is an old saying that rising tides lift all boats. In relation to the markets this week, the strength from the outside commodities (the heavy metals and energy) are the rising tides. The boats are the gains which have been pressured and are looking for a helping hand. The thought would be that the commodities getting the buying would spillover to the others in the ag part of the world. Well, the strength was true until Friday, when the month end and risk off took a bunch of premium off the table. The other part of that saying is that falling tides sink all ships. Now, grains never really got much of the lifting of the boat, as gold and silver shot to record highs, so who’s to say they’ll get the sinking of the ships.
Corn was back and forth this week, with March closing down 2 ¼ cents from last Friday. EIA showed updated ethanol production totals at 1.114 million barrels per day in the week of 1/16, down just 5,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Stocks were back down 339,000 to 25.4 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data from Friday buyers continuing to come in, with corn sales at 1.65 MMT in the week of January 22. Export commitments are now 57.694 MMT, which is 71% of the USDA export forecast and ahead of the 67% average. Census data showed 7.305 MMT (287.6 mbu) of corn shipped during November, the second largest total for the month on record. Distillers exports were at 933,557 MT, with ethanol exports a record for November at 211.33 million gallons. Commitment of Traders data as of January 27 indicated managed money at a net short of 72,050 contracts, a reduction of 9,274 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex saw some continued strength this week. March CBT was up 8 1/2 cents, with March KC 4 cents higher on the week. March MPLS spring wheat was 3 1/4 cents in the green. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of January 22 was back down from the previous 9-week high to 558,201 MT. That takes export commitments to 21.595 MMT, which is 88% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 89% average sales pace. Census trade data saw wheat exports at 1.616 MMT (59.4 mbu) during November, a 5-year high for the month. CFTC data from the week of January 27 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options slashing 15,957 contracts from their net short at 94,743 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 2,689 contracts to 10,329 contracts in that week.
Soybeans saw some late weakness this week, taking March 3 ½ cents lower than last Friday. Products added to the pressure this week, as March soybean meal was down $6.30/ton, with bean oil 48 points lower. Weekly Export Sales data showed 818,972 MT sold in the week ending on January 22, back down from last week’s marketing year high. Commitments are now 33.85 MMT, which is 79% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 87% average pace. Census data tallied November soybean exports at just 4.29 MMT (157.73 mbu), the lowest total for the month since 2007. CFTC data via the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding back 7,261 contracts to their net long to 17,321 contracts by January 27.
Live cattle were stronger this week despite the Friday pressure, as February was chasing cash and up 95 cents from last week. Cash trade was higher again this week, with USDA confirming $238 – 240 sales, mostly $3-4 higher. Feeders gained some ground, as March was up a dime on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down $7.21 week/week to $370.69. An update from APHIS this showed another 4 new active cases of new world screwworm in southern Tamaulipas, a Mexican state that borders the US, taking the total to 13 active cases. Wholesale boxed beef prices slipped back lower this week, with the Chc/Sel spread at $3.62. Choice boxes were back down $3.36/cwt (-0.9%) on the week to $365.56, as Select was 45 cents (-0.1%) higher at $361.94 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 0.8% below the week prior and down 9.6% from the same week last year at 475.1 million lbs. Year to date production in the first three weeks of the year is down 10.5% on a 12.6% drop in slaughter. Census trade data showed beef exports on a carcass basis at 190.4 million lbs in November, the lowest since 2009. The annual Cattle Inventory report from USDA showed all cattle and calves down 0.37% from last year at 86.155 million head. Beef cows were tallied at 27.607 million head, down 1.02%, with replacement heifers up 0.89% yr/yr at 4.714 million head.
Hogs fell lower this week as February was down $1.10. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $3.32 this week at $85.72 as of January 29. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down $1.53 (-1.6%) this week to $94.22/cwt. The picnic was the only primals reported higher on the week. Weekly pork production was down 2.4% from last week at 555.6 million lbs, which 0.4% below the same week last year. Production so far this year is down 2.7% on a 3.6% drop in slaughter. Pork exports in November totaled 613.1 million lbs according to Census data converted to a carcass basis. That was 4.9% below last year. CFTC data had spec traders adding 16,388 contracts to their net long in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on January 27 to 113,806 contracts.
Cotton futures were weaker again this week, down 64 points from last Friday. Export Sales from the week of 1/22 were tallied at 203,666 RB, with shipments at 257,036 RB. Total commitment are now 7.553 million RB, which is 66% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 84% average pace. Commitment of Traders data for the week of January 27 showed spec funds in cotton futures and options adding 13,077 contracts to their net short position of 65,029 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 50.23 cents/lb on Thursday down 76 points from the week prior.
Market Watch
Assuming there is no government shutdown, next week starts with the normal release of the weekly Export Inspections report. NASS will also release their monthly domestic demand reports, with the Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems report expected on Monday. EIA data will be out on Wednesday per the usual schedule, with the weekly release of Export Sales data on Thursday. February liver cattle options expire on Friday, as week as March cotton options.
Tech Talk: March Corn
Corn has two sides of the coin. Supply is burdensome with the massive crop on the ground that we need to get rid of. The other side is demand that nothing is short of phenomenal, especially on any sort of price break. That is shown in the March corn chart, that collapsed on the USDA report but has garnered some strength and taken some of that back. In terms of numbers, we’ve retraced just over 38.2% ($4.32 ½) of the drop from the $4.57 high. That is all that bears have been willing to give. Other resistance comes via the 18-day moving average at $4.29 ½. Stochastics are in high neutral and looking to cross. That is not the same as a sell signal but indicates bulls are out of shape. MACD is bullish, but on a low ADX. We are also in a bear flag formation, with the uptrend off the post-USDA report low at $4.28. That is holding, which Is a key spot for the bulls. The count from the flagpole is 31 ½ cents on any break. That suggests a test below $4 if we break here. There is also a rising regression channel, with support at $4.26 ½ holding on Friday and the upper boundary at $4.33 ½.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.