Massive Armada. The Energy Report 01/29/2026

While futures are breaking out to the upside partly on the fact of concerns that President Trump said he’s sending them massive Armada to Iran but really if you cut through the noise it’s also about demand that is much stronger than expected. Yesterday Fed  Chairman Jerome Powell said that the economy as entering 2026 on a “firm footing” with a “clearly improved” growth outlook since the last meeting, driven by strong consumption and factors like AI/data center buildout. This news is certainly encouraging for those who anticipate a surge in energy demand.

Not only did the latest Energy Information Administration report highlight a strong rebound in overall demand—including gasoline, which bounced back to  8,757 million barrels a day after last week’s dip to 757 7,834 923 and  U.S. crude oil production  Averaged 13.70 million b/d, down from 13.73 million b/d the prior week (a decrease of about 30,000 b/d or -0.26%) partly attributed to winter storm disruptions in some regions.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments are also driving us d there’s even talk of potential progress between Russia and Ukraine, with suggestions of a possible ceasefire that could help safeguard vital energy infrastructure. While challenges remain, there’s a sense of optimism that these positive shifts could lead to greater stability in the energy sector.

President Donald Trump’s strong warnings to Iran have captured headlines and market attention. Earlier this month, Trump declared he would retaliate if Iran harmed protestors during widespread demonstrations, and while he has yet to act on this threat, his administration continues to signal a firm stance.

On Wednesday, Trump issued a fresh ultimatum on his social media platform, warning Tehran to strike a deal on its nuclear program or face the consequences of a “massive Armada” swiftly approaching Iranian shores. His message was clear: “It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose.”  That warning has the Ayatollah Khomeini hiding in his bunker right now and there are reports that they have taken delivery on  ‘strategic drones’ from somebody like maybe Russia as they hunker down after the outright slaughter of their own people Th Iranian leadership has proven that they would much rather rule over the rubble and the dead bodies of their own citizens as opposed to giving up their just desire for power and evil.

Of course the potential military strike on Iran is not been necessarily popular with some of our allies reports show that both Saudi Arabia and Israeli officials are going to meet in Washington DC with the trump administration to discuss their concerns about an Iranian attack earlier reports suggested that Saudi Arabia wouldn’t allow the US to use their airspace or bases to attack I ran but I’m sure that president trump will be very persuasive in his arguments when they meet in Washington.

Europe of course wants to take a strong stance after the slaughter of the Iranian people but they don’t want military action they just want to put more sanctions on the Iranian government the problem is that Europe hasn’t really been the best in enforcing sanctions on Iran in the 1st place and they haven’t had the political will to really crack down on the Iranian economy.  On top of that of course OPEC is sending signals that they are going to keep their production freeze in place Bloomberg is reporting that and they’re going to retain their 1.2 million barrel a day of spare capacity which is not a lot in the global scheme of things it’ll be interesting to see President Trump pressures Saudi Arabia to keep production straight.

Looking ahead, Bloomberg reports that the outlook remains uncertain. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE are eager to increase output and intensify pressure on American shale, most forecasts suggest a potential oversupply and stagnant demand. Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, are cited by Bloomberg as predicting that OPEC+ may eventually need to implement production cuts to prevent a decline in prices. Bloomberg also points out that last year’s price drop prompted oil-producing nations to adjust their budgets and seek new revenue sources. For now, Bloomberg observes that the market is sustained by strong rhetoric, strategic patience, and vigilant attention to global events.

I guess you could put it that way but what we’re seeing of course is a breakout of a long term sideways pattern if we close above this area we could see oil get back to the 40s and it’s not all political risk it’s about strong demand when you get a growth number in the United states of 4% when you see the incredible man that we’re seeing in this booming economy it’s definitely going to keep prices supportive and that’s a good thing because yes producers have been struggling at the same time more oil from Venezuela has definitely put downward pressure on prices and we’re going to see that be a big win for the US .

Oil and diesel cracks have pulled back a little bit with the strength in the oil and if you look at the natural gas they are being dictated by weather this explosive move up the explosive expiration that we saw in the contracts are big surge the big question is what’s going to happen in the March expiration and that’s going to depend on weather we all know it’s going to warm up but keep an eye on what Fox weather is saying

 Fox Weather reports that ‘Hot on the heels of a deadly major winter storm that carved its way 2,300 miles across the United States, bringing life-threatening ice and heavy snow to several areas, comes a potential nor’easter that has the strong likelihood to “bomb out.”

Regions like the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast saw significant snow over the weekend and are working to dig out. Nearly 50 deaths have already been reported across 16 states. Now, a nor’easter is forecast off the East Coast for this upcoming weekend and is looking increasingly likely to develop into a bomb cyclone. Given the ingredients current models are projecting, it is becoming nearly certain that a powerful storm will develop, though where it bombs has not been set in stone just yet.

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