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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 01/20/2026

By Jack Scoville On January 20, 2026 - 10:12 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat closed a little higher and KC closed a little lower last week as the USDA weekly export sales report showed only meager sales. Better export sales are now anticipated due the move lower seen Monday in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA released its Winter Wheat seedings report on Monday that showed increased planted are for SRW and reduced White Winter Wheat seedings. HRW seedings were unchanged from a year ago. Ending stocks were also increased for the US and the world, so the report was considered bearish. Ending stocks estimates and the quarterly stocks estimates were on the high side of expectations. Concerns on the condition of the Winter Wheat crops moving forward are growing as there is little snow cover and some very cold temperatures in the forecast that could create Winterkill.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 500, 494, and 488 March, with resistance at 528, 530, and 536 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 508, 503, and 499 March, with resistance at 536, 540, and 545 March. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

RICE:

General Comments Rice was higher last week. The market might have finished a bottom formation on the daily and weekly charts. USDA on Monday cut its production estimate for All Rice but left Long Grain production higher than last month. Domestic demand was increased and exports were cut for all classes. Ending stocks were reduced. The average farm price was increased for all Rice but left unchanged for Long Grain. Weaker world prices are expected by the FAO in the coming year. Trends are turning up in the market.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up. Support is at 1002, 996, and 975 March and resistance is at 1079, 1092, and 1110 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 13, 2026

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :

CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 13,656 :

: Positions :

: 6,785 2,761 160 187 0 1,434 6,997 46 1,656 815 951 :

: Changes from: January 6, 2026 :

: -247 260 0 1 0 109 -421 30 -14 -70 0 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 49.7 20.2 1.2 1.4 0.0 10.5 51.2 0.3 12.1 6.0 7.0 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 79 :

: 18 13 . . 0 8 22 . 12 8 8 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn was last week in response to the USDA reports. USDA showed solid sales last week. The USDA reports that were released on Monday. USDA increased production by raising harvested area and trimming yields and increased ending stocks through the increased production and a smaller increase in demand. The demand for export and for bio energy needs has held strong, but the export demand was cut back in the WASDE reports even as feed demand remained untouched. Traders had expected a cut to the feed demand. Trends are down. Temperatures in the Midwest should average near to below normal. Oats were slightly lower.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 417, 414, and 411 March, and resistance is at 446, 446, and 449 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 284, 278, and 27\5 March, and resistance is at 317, 320, and 326 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 13, 2026

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,035,735

: Positions :

: 142,980 344,315 594,914 671,098 771,268 441,781 125,016 1,850,773 1,835,514: 184,962 200,221

: Changes from: January 6, 2026 (Change in open interest: 120,276) :

: -17,091 58,130 54,373 71,304 -1,325 20,235 -24 128,821 111,154: -8,545 9,122

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 7.0 16.9 29.2 33.0 37.9 21.7 6.1 90.9 90.2: 9.1 9.8

: Total Traders: 837 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 116 184 205 384 387 51 28 685 684:

——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 13, 2026

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :

CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,158 :

: Positions :

: 819 1,034 0 126 0 0 1,141 0 1,283 88 220 :

: Changes from: January 6, 2026 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 19.7 24.9 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 27.4 0.0 30.9 2.1 5.3 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 20 :

: 4 4 0 . 0 0 5 0 5 . . :

—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher last week, but Soybean Meal was lower. The weekly export sales report showed very strong sales. The USDA reports were bearish for Soybeans. Production was increased as was domestic demand. Export demand was cut back and ending stocks were increased. Brazil production was increased. It seems that the market is now more concerned about big supplies coming soon from South America with the Soybeans harvest there now underway. US prices are currently too high to complete many new sales anywhere in the world market except Canada and Mexico. Temperatures will average near to below normal in the Midwest.

Overnight News: Philippines bought 190,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.

Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1033, 1030, and 1018 March, and resistance is at 1071, 1082, and 1086 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 286.00, 283.00, and 280.00 March, and resistance is at 307.00, 311.00, and 316.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up. Support is at 5040, 4960, and 4900 March, with resistance at 5340, 5440, and 5500 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 13, 2026

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,018,811

: Positions :

: 91,452 107,840 293,641 347,646 490,886 225,855 44,940 958,595 937,308: 60,217 81,504

: Changes from: January 6, 2026 (Change in open interest: 56,901) :

: -15,959 22,328 33,681 38,540 -12,167 3,547 8,407 59,809 52,249: -2,907 4,652

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 9.0 10.6 28.8 34.1 48.2 22.2 4.4 94.1 92.0: 5.9 8.0

: Total Traders: 625 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 136 128 184 225 257 48 29 516 514:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 13, 2026

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 731,473

: Positions :

: 49,717 134,248 225,056 272,555 298,621 153,182 45,575 700,511 703,500: 30,962 27,973

: Changes from: January 6, 2026 (Change in open interest: 29,615) :

: 9,736 -12,382 20,567 3,777 19,132 -6,470 4,752 27,609 32,068: 2,006 -2,453

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 6.8 18.4 30.8 37.3 40.8 20.9 6.2 95.8 96.2: 4.2 3.8

: Total Traders: 374 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 83 100 126 110 103 42 25 305 294:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 13, 2026

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 581,407

: Positions :

: 80,395 95,146 126,252 213,803 295,102 113,396 32,304 533,846 548,804: 47,561 32,603

: Changes from: January 6, 2026 (Change in open interest: 30,179) :

: 8,782 -5,329 8,700 15,056 23,878 -3,111 3,454 29,428 30,703: 751 -524

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 13.8 16.4 21.7 36.8 50.8 19.5 5.6 91.8 94.4: 8.2 5.6

: Total Traders: 352 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 71 81 98 124 116 37 23 285 274:

——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA

General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher last week and higher today on idea of increasing seasonal demand. There are still ideas of increasing production. Demand ideas are in a state of flux right now with some looking for weaker demand and other looking for improved demand. Canola was higher last week on strong demand ideas. Canada and China reached agreement on a new trade deal which is expected to result in part in new sales of Canola to China There are ideas of a big Soybeans harvest coming from South America.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 616.00, 600.00, and 590.00 March, with resistance at 644.00, 650.00, and 656.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3980, 3900, and 3840 April, with resistance at 4110, 4160, and 4200 April.

DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports Rose 8.6% on Month, AmSpec Says

By Ying Xian Wong

Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Jan. 1-20 period are estimated up 8.6% on month at 892,428 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Tuesday.

The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:

(All figures in metric tons)

Jan. 1-20 Dec. 1-20

RBD Palm Olein 194,388 137,468

RBD Palm Oil 115,554 62,322

RBD Palm Stearin 72,953 79,477

Crude Palm Oil 272,045 236,680

Total* 892,428 821,442

*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 13, 2026

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :

CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 24,582 :

: Positions :

: 19,616 19,019 964 2,613 660 0 770 30 2,946 1,124 366 :

: Changes from: January 6, 2026 :

: 410 -360 0 580 0 0 -40 0 -230 0 0 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 79.8 77.4 3.9 10.6 2.7 0.0 3.1 0.1 12.0 4.6 1.5 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29 :

: 9 7 . 6 . 0 . . 4 4 . :

—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 13, 2026

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :

CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 276,695 :

: Positions :

: 178,555 87,308 9,377 8,168 4,849 35,747 117,496 20,676 13,577 23,036 12,627 :

: Changes from: January 6, 2026 :

: 12,623 7,417 -5,621 4,150 891 1,698 -12,684 -1,148 -1,368 7,541 666 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 64.5 31.6 3.4 3.0 1.8 12.9 42.5 7.5 4.9 8.3 4.6 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 339 :

: 59 76 6 4 6 30 57 25 52 91 49 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 20

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Feb 1042.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –

Mar 1047.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –

Apr/May/Jun 1050.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –

Jul/Aug/Sep 1050.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Feb 1047.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –

Mar 1052.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –

Apr/May/Jun 1055.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –

Jul/Aug/Sep 1055.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Feb 1017.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Feb 1015.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Feb 4,100.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Feb 424.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –

($1=MYR4.052)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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