This last week’s USDA data was less than friendly to those who are bullish. After a series of bearish reports, the final NASS Crop Production report was the icing on top of that cake that leaves a bad taste in your mouth. The final production total was 269 million bushels higher than back in November and 800 mbu to a billion bushel higher than where some in the trade were looking. In terms of the supply side this last year, we have had a paradigm shift, or fundamental change, in what we thought we could produce as a country. With over 18.5 bbu of supply demand has work to do for corn, and on the S&D curve that means at a lower price level.
Corn had a rough start to the week and failed to dig out of Monday’s hole, as March was 21 cents lower on the week. The big pressure factor was USDA’s Crop Production report, raising yield 0.5 bpa to 186.5 bpa, with harvested acreage at 91.3 million acres, up 1.25 million from November. That took production up 269 mbu to 17.021 bbu. Ending stocks were raised by 198 mbu to 2.227 bbu. The bulls did manage to get some demand out of the price break with a cumulative 1.828 MMT in exports announced this week. EIA updated ethanol production shot 98,000 barrels per day higher to 1.191 million barrels per day of ethanol production in the week of 1/9, backing. Stocks were up another 821,000 barrels to 24.473 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data from Thursday showed 1.14 MT of corn sold in the week of January 8. Export commitments are now 52.035 MMT, which is 63% of the USDA export forecast and ahead of the 62% average. Commitment of Traders data as of January 13 indicated managed money at a net short of 81,774 contracts, an increase of 65,348 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex was mixed around this week, as the bulls in Chicago were fighting back. March CBT was up just ¾ cent, with March KC down 3 cents on the week. March MPLS spring wheat was 2 1/2 cents lower. USDA showed ending stocks 25 mbu higher to 926 mbu on Monday via the WASDE. Winter Wheat Seedings data showed 32.99 million acres of winter wheat planted last fall, slightly below last year but above estimates. Export Inspections fell to 317,465 MT in the week of 1/8 with accumulated shipments at 15.581 MMT (+19.23% yr/yr). Weekly Export Sales data from the week of January 8 was just 156,255 MT. That takes export commitments to 20.39 MMT, which is 83% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 85% average sales pace. CFTC data from the week of January 13 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options trimming 936 contracts to their net short at 106,229 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut their net short by another 2,874 contracts to 12,781 contracts in that week.
Soybeans were weaker on Monday but failed to take it all back, as March was 4 ¾ cents lower this week. Products were mixed this week, as March soybean meal was down $13.70/ton on the week, with bean oil 292 points higher. USDA failed to provide much bullish juice, with yield left unchanged at 53 bpa and harvested acres up slightly to put production 9 mbu higher to 4.262 bbu. The ending stocks estimate was up 60 mbu at 350 mbu, mainly due to a cut in exports. NOPA data showed 224.99 mbu of soybeans crushed during December, a record for the month and 8.9% above last year. There was a total of 1.403 MMT in daily announced export business this week. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2.06 MMT sold in the week ending on January 8. Commitments are now 30.637 MMT, which is 71% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 86% average paces. CFTC data via the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders slashing another 44,756 contracts from their net long to 12,961 contracts by January 13.
Live cattle were weaker this week, as February was down another $1.57. Cash trade was firmer this week, with USDA confirming $232-233 sales, mostly steady. Feeders were higher, as Jan was up $1.20 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up another $2.25 week/week to $370.15. An update from APHIS this showed another 8 active cases of new world screwworm in southern Tamaulipas, a Mexican state that borders the US. Wholesale boxed beef prices gained some more strength this week, with the Chc/Sel spread at $2.19 Choice boxes were up $6.75/cwt (1.9%) on the week to $362.38, as Select was $8.02 (2.3%) higher at $360.19 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 2.1% above the week prior but down 4% from the same week last year at 503.4 million lbs. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 101,316 contracts as of January 13 in the latest Commitment of Traders report, up 6,555 from the week prior. Feeders were net long 16,308 contracts on that date, an reduction of 530 contracts on the week.
Hogs saw a breakout to this upside this week, as February was up $2.97. The CME Lean Hog Index was 48 cents lower this week at $80.50 as of January 14. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $1.31 (1.4%) this week to $93.63/cwt. The butt and picnic were the only primals reported lower on the week. Weekly pork production was down 2.1% from last week at 574 million lbs, which just 0.2% above the same week last year. CFTC data had spec traders adding just 766 contracts to their net long in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on January 13 to 82,624 contracts.
Cotton futures managed to push higher out of the week, as March was 25 points in the green since last Friday. USDA showed 11.962 million RB of cotton ginned as of December 31, which is 1.02 million RB shy of last year. NASS production data was down 350,000 bales to 13.92 million as a 73 lb cut to yield offset a 430,000 acres increase to harvested acres. Export Sales from the week of 1/8 were tallied at 339,724 RB, with shipments at 156,104 RB. Total commitment are now 6.937 million RB, which is 60% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 79% average pace. Commitment of Traders data for the week of January 13 showed spec funds in cotton futures and options adding 2,600 contracts to their net short position of 50,372 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 51.17 cents/lb on Thursday up 20 points from the week prior.
Market Watch
We start next week with a Holiday, as the trade and government observes Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Tuesday will have the Export Inspections release. EIA data will be pushed back to Thursday morning, with the weekly release of Export Sales data on Friday. NASS will also publish Cattle on Feed data on Friday, with February serial grain options expiring.
Tech Talk: March Corn
March bulls had words for the USDA this week. Point proven by the 24 ¼ cent loss on Monday. In terms of technical damage, it was fairly extensive. The low held right at a 78.6% Fib Retracement support at $4.20. Tuesday came in a blew through it to $4.17 1/4, but it ended up holding at the close, as well as the rest of the week. Bulls failing there would suggest a test of the contract low at $4.10. The weekly chart has an expiration gap at $4.05 ¼. Stochastics are still bearish, with CCI already oversold. ADX at 22 says to follow the MACD, which is gaining bearish momentum. It’s apparent demand has liked the price break, as USDA reported 1.828 MMT of daily sale announcements this week. We’re going to need that to keep going in order to clean up the corn around the country. There is a 38.2% Fib retracement off the $4.57 Nov high at $4.32 ¼, though with a + 18.5 bbu supply we’re fighting gravity on any rally attempt.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Paradigm Shift. Ag Marketing Report 01/20/2025
This last week’s USDA data was less than friendly to those who are bullish. After a series of bearish reports, the final NASS Crop Production report was the icing on top of that cake that leaves a bad taste in your mouth. The final production total was 269 million bushels higher than back in November and 800 mbu to a billion bushel higher than where some in the trade were looking. In terms of the supply side this last year, we have had a paradigm shift, or fundamental change, in what we thought we could produce as a country. With over 18.5 bbu of supply demand has work to do for corn, and on the S&D curve that means at a lower price level.
Corn had a rough start to the week and failed to dig out of Monday’s hole, as March was 21 cents lower on the week. The big pressure factor was USDA’s Crop Production report, raising yield 0.5 bpa to 186.5 bpa, with harvested acreage at 91.3 million acres, up 1.25 million from November. That took production up 269 mbu to 17.021 bbu. Ending stocks were raised by 198 mbu to 2.227 bbu. The bulls did manage to get some demand out of the price break with a cumulative 1.828 MMT in exports announced this week. EIA updated ethanol production shot 98,000 barrels per day higher to 1.191 million barrels per day of ethanol production in the week of 1/9, backing. Stocks were up another 821,000 barrels to 24.473 million barrels. USDA Export Sales data from Thursday showed 1.14 MT of corn sold in the week of January 8. Export commitments are now 52.035 MMT, which is 63% of the USDA export forecast and ahead of the 62% average. Commitment of Traders data as of January 13 indicated managed money at a net short of 81,774 contracts, an increase of 65,348 contracts on the week.
The wheat complex was mixed around this week, as the bulls in Chicago were fighting back. March CBT was up just ¾ cent, with March KC down 3 cents on the week. March MPLS spring wheat was 2 1/2 cents lower. USDA showed ending stocks 25 mbu higher to 926 mbu on Monday via the WASDE. Winter Wheat Seedings data showed 32.99 million acres of winter wheat planted last fall, slightly below last year but above estimates. Export Inspections fell to 317,465 MT in the week of 1/8 with accumulated shipments at 15.581 MMT (+19.23% yr/yr). Weekly Export Sales data from the week of January 8 was just 156,255 MT. That takes export commitments to 20.39 MMT, which is 83% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 85% average sales pace. CFTC data from the week of January 13 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options trimming 936 contracts to their net short at 106,229 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut their net short by another 2,874 contracts to 12,781 contracts in that week.
Soybeans were weaker on Monday but failed to take it all back, as March was 4 ¾ cents lower this week. Products were mixed this week, as March soybean meal was down $13.70/ton on the week, with bean oil 292 points higher. USDA failed to provide much bullish juice, with yield left unchanged at 53 bpa and harvested acres up slightly to put production 9 mbu higher to 4.262 bbu. The ending stocks estimate was up 60 mbu at 350 mbu, mainly due to a cut in exports. NOPA data showed 224.99 mbu of soybeans crushed during December, a record for the month and 8.9% above last year. There was a total of 1.403 MMT in daily announced export business this week. Weekly Export Sales data showed 2.06 MMT sold in the week ending on January 8. Commitments are now 30.637 MMT, which is 71% of USDA’s forecast, and behind the 86% average paces. CFTC data via the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders slashing another 44,756 contracts from their net long to 12,961 contracts by January 13.
Live cattle were weaker this week, as February was down another $1.57. Cash trade was firmer this week, with USDA confirming $232-233 sales, mostly steady. Feeders were higher, as Jan was up $1.20 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up another $2.25 week/week to $370.15. An update from APHIS this showed another 8 active cases of new world screwworm in southern Tamaulipas, a Mexican state that borders the US. Wholesale boxed beef prices gained some more strength this week, with the Chc/Sel spread at $2.19 Choice boxes were up $6.75/cwt (1.9%) on the week to $362.38, as Select was $8.02 (2.3%) higher at $360.19 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was 2.1% above the week prior but down 4% from the same week last year at 503.4 million lbs. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 101,316 contracts as of January 13 in the latest Commitment of Traders report, up 6,555 from the week prior. Feeders were net long 16,308 contracts on that date, an reduction of 530 contracts on the week.
Hogs saw a breakout to this upside this week, as February was up $2.97. The CME Lean Hog Index was 48 cents lower this week at $80.50 as of January 14. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $1.31 (1.4%) this week to $93.63/cwt. The butt and picnic were the only primals reported lower on the week. Weekly pork production was down 2.1% from last week at 574 million lbs, which just 0.2% above the same week last year. CFTC data had spec traders adding just 766 contracts to their net long in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on January 13 to 82,624 contracts.
Cotton futures managed to push higher out of the week, as March was 25 points in the green since last Friday. USDA showed 11.962 million RB of cotton ginned as of December 31, which is 1.02 million RB shy of last year. NASS production data was down 350,000 bales to 13.92 million as a 73 lb cut to yield offset a 430,000 acres increase to harvested acres. Export Sales from the week of 1/8 were tallied at 339,724 RB, with shipments at 156,104 RB. Total commitment are now 6.937 million RB, which is 60% of USDA’s forecast and behind the 79% average pace. Commitment of Traders data for the week of January 13 showed spec funds in cotton futures and options adding 2,600 contracts to their net short position of 50,372 contracts. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 51.17 cents/lb on Thursday up 20 points from the week prior.
Market Watch
We start next week with a Holiday, as the trade and government observes Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Tuesday will have the Export Inspections release. EIA data will be pushed back to Thursday morning, with the weekly release of Export Sales data on Friday. NASS will also publish Cattle on Feed data on Friday, with February serial grain options expiring.
Tech Talk: March Corn
March bulls had words for the USDA this week. Point proven by the 24 ¼ cent loss on Monday. In terms of technical damage, it was fairly extensive. The low held right at a 78.6% Fib Retracement support at $4.20. Tuesday came in a blew through it to $4.17 1/4, but it ended up holding at the close, as well as the rest of the week. Bulls failing there would suggest a test of the contract low at $4.10. The weekly chart has an expiration gap at $4.05 ¼. Stochastics are still bearish, with CCI already oversold. ADX at 22 says to follow the MACD, which is gaining bearish momentum. It’s apparent demand has liked the price break, as USDA reported 1.828 MMT of daily sale announcements this week. We’re going to need that to keep going in order to clean up the corn around the country. There is a 38.2% Fib retracement off the $4.57 Nov high at $4.32 ¼, though with a + 18.5 bbu supply we’re fighting gravity on any rally attempt.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2026 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.