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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 01/20/2026

By On January 20, 2026 - 9:52 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was a little higher last week in range trading and a strong weekly export sales report.  The weekly sales total was over 400,000 bales and much higher than what has been reported for the last couple of years.  The USDA reports released on Monday showed less production and unchanged demand.  Ending stocks were less.
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 63.70, 63.00, and 62.40 March, with resistance of 65.90, 66.40 and 67.20 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 13, 2026
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   383,739
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   55,074   105,712   100,637   121,358   133,747    90,226    31,284   367,295   371,379:   16,444    12,360
    : Changes from: January 6, 2026            (Change in open interest:      16,765)         :
    :    5,876     5,422    -1,051    10,690    14,530     2,102    -2,729    17,617    16,172:     -852       593
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     14.4      27.5      26.2      31.6      34.9      23.5       8.2      95.7      96.8:      4.3       3.2
    : Total Traders:   391          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :      113       135       124        79        60        41        24       309       276:
——————————————————————————————————————-
FCOJ
General Comments:  Futures were a little higher last week as the Florida harvest is active.  USDA on Monday showed US production at 54.8 million boxes and Florida production at 12.0 million boxes.  Both estimates are unchanged from previous reports.  Chart trends are mixed.  There is no freeze in the forecast, but areas north of the state have been very cold and more cold weather is possible later this week.  Florida has also been dry and irrigation is needed.  Traders are worried about demand even with overall lower prices.  The weather is considered good for production in Brazil and Mexico.  Scattered showers are reported in Brazil.
Overnight News:  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 184.00, 174.00, and 168.00 March, with resistance at 226.00, 230.00, and 240.00 March.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 13, 2026
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :
CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    10,557                :
: Positions                                                                                                    :
:    3,362     3,849       302       187       207     1,547     3,214       138     2,059        34     1,301 :
: Changes from:     January 6, 2026                                                                            :
:     -692       583         4       -57        17      -106    -1,213       -43        71      -148       346 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :
:     31.8      36.5       2.9       1.8       2.0      14.7      30.4       1.3      19.5       0.3      12.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    51                     :
:       11        11         .         .         .         5        14         6         9         .         7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York closed a little lower and London closed higher last week, and trends are mixed in both markets.  There are still ideas and reports of increasing harvest sales from Vietnam.  There are reports of very good conditions in Brazil.  Most farmers are holding for better prices.  Scattered showers are being reported now to improve tree condition in Brazil.  Mexico is in good condition, as is Central America.  Vietnam has scattered showers lately and conditions there are called good.  Vietnamese producers are selling.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 296.52 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 351.00, 345.00, and 339.00 March, and resistance is at 385.00, 390.00 and 400.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up.  Support is at 3860, 3730, and 3670 March, with resistance at 4070, 4100, and 4190 .
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 13, 2026
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   201,537
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   37,538    17,595    58,752    52,527   109,619    44,541     8,603   193,359   194,569:    8,178     6,967
    : Changes from: January 6, 2026            (Change in open interest:      -1,970)         :
    :      181        32    -4,020       717     2,238     1,051         0    -2,072    -1,749:      103      -221
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     18.6       8.7      29.2      26.1      54.4      22.1       4.3      95.9      96.5:      4.1       3.5
    : Total Traders:   358          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       95        89       110        95       112        43        20       297       275:
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were a li9ttle higher last week.  There are good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  The prospect of a big global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increase supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1440, 1410, and 1380 March and resistance is at 1510, 1540, and 1560 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 415.00, 410.00, and 404.00 March, with resistance at 431.00, 437.00, and 445.00 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 13, 2026
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,130,938
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   66,744   247,932   287,622   395,407   413,777   307,375    98,795 1,057,148 1,048,126:   73,790    82,812
    : Changes from: January 6, 2026            (Change in open interest:      29,112)         :
    :   -7,630     2,803    10,811      -566    12,825    31,393     2,741    34,009    29,180:   -4,897       -69
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :      5.9      21.9      25.4      35.0      36.6      27.2       8.7      93.5      92.7:      6.5       7.3
    : Total Traders:   257          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       57        80        91        70        63        37        20       223       197:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA
General Comments:  New York and London closed lower again last week.  Short term trends are down.  A big main crop harvest is anticipated in West Africa and rains have been positive for crops lately.  Light rains mixed with heat in Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions last week signaled a positive outlook for the main crop.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are to down.  Support is at 4810, 4750, and 4690 March, with resistance at 5490, 5790, and 6230 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 3530, 3410, and 3280 March, with resistance at 4030, 4200, and 4290 March.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 13, 2026
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   176,859
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   13,813    28,805    62,418    52,045    62,135    38,697    11,045   166,973   164,403:    9,887    12,457
    : Changes from: January 6, 2026            (Change in open interest:      14,042)         :
    :  -13,120     1,489    11,464       287    -2,005    14,652       241    13,283    11,189:      759     2,853
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :      7.8      16.3      35.3      29.4      35.1      21.9       6.2      94.4      93.0:      5.6       7.0
    : Total Traders:   193          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       41        70        80        38        36        33        19       163       158:
——————————————————————————————————————-
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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