Oil Hopes and Fears. The Energy Report 01/15/2026

Oil prices surge on fears of war in Iran but coming back down on hopes for a better life for the people of Venezuela on oil sales and risng optimism from the Venezuelan people and the release of political prisoners.  Oil prices we’re surging and fears of an imminent attack on Iran by the Trump administration in an attempt to stop the wholesale slaughter of the Iranian government on the Iranian people yet assurance to the President that the killings might stop reduced the risk in oil, .
There is no doubt that President Trump’s recent comments have sent oil markets on a roller coaster ride, sparking anxieties and fueling price swings that traders know all too well.
When Trump speaks, markets listen—and often react just as sharply. Over the past week, escalating rhetoric drove Brent and WTI to multi-month highs, with Brent topping $66.50 and WTI hitting $62 as fears of U.S. military action and supply disruptions from Iran, a major OPEC producer, gripped the market. But when the President shifted his tone on January 14–15, signaling de-escalation, the risk premium unraveled fast. Prices tumbled 3–4% on January 15 as traders rushed to unwind those war worries.
It all started with Trump’s vocal support for Iranian protesters and tough talk on economic pressure. From Truth Social (January 13, 2026): “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!!” Just a day before, the President fired off a trade warning: “Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America. This Order is final and conclusive.” Yet it all changed when Trump said “We’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping — it’s stopped — it’s stopping. And there’s no plan for executions, or an execution, or execution — so I’ve been told that on good authority. “He referenced information from “very important sources on the other side” and stated he would be “very upset” if the crackdown resumed, while emphasizing continued U.S. monitoring and that military action had not been ruled out.
And putting downward pressure on prices is the amazing progress that we’re seeing in Venezuela and oil sales that are coming much quicker than people anticipated U.S. officials said that they completed their first sale of Venezuelan oil to the tune of $500 million and while the details of the sale haven’t been made public president trump said the US will sell even more oil in the coming days and weeks.
And while many people shouldn’t trust  the new so called  acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez , So far President Trump seems to be directing her actions and at least for the short term is someone we can work with until the country can get established and get prepared for either the rightful president of Venezuela to take her place or at least have a real fair election. The AP reported that Delcy Rodriguez said she would continue to release political prisoners that were detained under former president Nicolas maduro’s rule as she described a new political moment that allows for political ideological diversity.  What ever that is supposed to mean, Of course, many warned that once the socialist always a socialist and that President Trump shouldn’t trust her but he did say  they had a long phone call and they discussed a lot of things and I think we’re getting along very well with Venezuela. Mz. Rodriguez if you cross president trump there will be consequences,
This comes as an economist shows surging optimism in Venezuela with the majority of people in Venezuela supporting the capture of Nicolas Maduro as well as a large 40% of the country believing that the country’s going to be much better off 40% and up to 70% saying at least a little better off and you have what seems to be at least half of the country supporting the US governments in Venezuela of course the majority of the people also believe that the Venezuelan government should run the oil industry in the future .
In yesterday’s weekly inventory report showed huge builds in gasoline and diesel and because they are the early reports of the year a lot of people are not going to put a lot of credence in them but at the same time people are starting to focus on some of the predictions that US shell production might be peaking off or at the very least shale production is not going to grow as quickly as people thought as prices have come down.
The oil market outlook for 2026 and 2027 is marked by differing forecasts from leading agencies, each with unique implications for global supply, demand, and prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects robust supply growth of 2.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, primarily from non-OPEC+ countries like the U.S. and Brazil, with total supply reaching 108.6 mb/d. However, slowing demand growth at 860,000 barrels per day could result in a significant surplus of up to 4.09 mb/d, potentially pressuring prices downward. The IEA’s 2027 forecast will be updated in January 2026.
Skepticism surrounds the forecasts from major energy agencies, with each outlook appearing more like best guesses than definitive roadmaps. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) January 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, for instance, projects only modest global liquids production growth—1.4 mb/d for 2026 and a further slowdown to 0.5 mb/d in 2027, largely pinned on OPEC+ inching up output and South American producers making gains. But these numbers hinge on the assumption that Venezuelan sanctions will hold steady through 2027, an expectation that seems more wishful than certain given the shifting geopolitical landscape. The EIA’s range for global production—between 107 and 108 mb/d in 2026—implies inventory builds and downward price pressure, forecasting Brent crude to average just $56 per barrel in 2026 and $54 in 2027. This scenario conveniently matches recent U.S. narratives about rapid surges in Venezuelan oil sales and swelling U.S. inventories, but whether these trends persist remains to be seen.
OPEC’s January 2026 report, meanwhile, sidesteps providing hard supply figures and instead offers a vague assurance of a “near-balanced market,” projecting demand growth of 1.38 mb/d to 106.52 mb/d in 2026 and 1.34 mb/d to 107.86 mb/d in 2027. The group expects non-OPEC supply to rise by 610,000 barrels per day in 2027, mostly from Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina—a forecast that sounds optimistic given past volatility. OPEC+ claims it will pause supply increases through early 2026 but leaves the door open for adjustments later, hinting at a flexible approach that could just as easily lead to renewed imbalances as to market stability.
When the numbers are lined up, the IEA is the most gluttonous, with a 2026 supply forecast of 108.6 mb/d; OPEC is the most conservative at around 106.5 mb/d, while the EIA hedges in between.  Yet, given the agencies’ divergent assumptions about demand, political stability, and the effectiveness of production management, it’s difficult to put much faith in any single outlook.  The IEA warns of supply surpluses and weakening prices, OPEC stresses its commitment to balance, and the EIA underscores the limits to U.S. shale growth and OPEC+’s supposed ability to fine-tune the market.  Ultimately, these projections seem less like reliable forecasts and more like educated guesses,  mixed in with a bit of agenda clouding some forecasts. Despite frigid winter storms, natural gas prices have dropped due to recent issues at some LNG export terminals. Scott Di Savino At Reuters I think when we look at the natural gas we are hearing that a power outage at the Freeport LNG terminal really backed up supplies which added to the downward pressure on natural gas plus we had other LNG plants that were down for maintenance and that push prices down the key thing of course is going to be the weather this cold front is going to be really cold but Scott the sabino at Reuters suggests that it might not have as big of an impact of previous cold fronts because Texas will stay warm reducing the risk of freeze offs. Doing great but if the cold front step into Texas that could change so make sure you download the fox weather app to keep up with that this is as Reuters points out that US power consumption hit ihit its second straight record high in 2025, will rise further in 2026 and 2027, the Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday.
The EIA projected power demand will rise from a record 4,198 billion kWh in 2025 to 4,256 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2026 and 4,364 billion kWh in 2027. Demand is surging in part due to data centers dedicated to artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, and as homes and businesses use more electricity and less fossil fuel for heat and transportation.
So make sure you download the fox Webber app to keep up with this major cold blast and keep tuned to the Fox Business Network because they are the only network in America that’s truly invested in you you can also sign up for the offline daily trade levels you can open your account with Phil Flynn and his team you can also get the periodic manic metals report by calling 888-264-5665 or e-mail pflynn@pricegroup.com.

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Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report

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