Oil Surges on Iran’s Brutal Killing Crackdown. The Energy Report 01/13/2026

Oil prices are spiking as the Jerusalem Post reported that Iran’s regime has killed over 12,000 people during the ongoing protests. In direct response, President Trump has announced a sweeping 25% tariff on any country trading with Iran. Trump’s warning—issued on Truth Social—came on the heels of his previous statement that Iran is “starting to” cross U.S. red lines causing oil to spike along with oil products. 

Citing alarming reports of civilian casualties, the President cautioned that the U.S. is preparing “very strong” retaliatory measures, raising immediate global concerns about further escalation. In a dramatic escalation, President Trump has issued an urgent warning as Iran appears to be flagrantly crossing U.S. red lines, with the alarming reports of widespread civilian casualties amid the ongoing uprising. The situation is tense, as Trump said Iran wants to negotiate but warned action may be necessary before any meeting.

Markets are on high alert and adding to the risk is a dramatic escalation in the Black Sea, where reports say that up to four Greek-managed oil tankers—including the Matilda, Delta Harmony, Freud, and Delta Supreme—were struck by drones overnight near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) loading terminal off the Russian coast, a crucial hub handling roughly 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports.

Reports say that, “Several Greek-managed oil tankers near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) loading terminal off the Russian coast were struck by drones overnight amid escalating tensions in the Black Sea region. The Matilda sustained minor deck damage with no casualties, while Delta Harmony experienced a fire that was quickly contained. All affected vessels were awaiting Kazakh crude near Novorossiysk, and fortunately, there were no major oil spills or injuries reported among the crew. These incidents, which are part of the broader Russia-Ukraine conflict and follow recent Ukrainian strikes on Russia-linked “shadow fleet” ships, have led to a 2.3% increase in crude prices in some markets and a notable spike in European gas oil. Although no group has claimed responsibility, the attacks highlight the growing risks to global energy flows and underscore the vulnerability of vital export routes as geopolitical tensions continue to rise.

Yet Iran is on the front burner. The Trump administration said last week that it isn’t just sitting idle—they’re locked and loaded, ready to deliver a sharp response and keep the energy markets on their toes. We’re talking about the real possibility of military strikes, powerful cyberattacks, and sanctions that could shake up the global order, all while Iran drops hints about coming to the table to discuss its nuclear ambitions.

But don’t get too comfortable; President Trump kept it blunt and urgent: “Iran wants to negotiate, yes. We might meet with them. But we may have to act because of what is happening before the meeting.” The message? Talk is cheap, and the market’s bracing for fireworks as the White House weighs its next move.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump will meet with senior aides Tuesday to weigh possible responses to Iran, including military strikes, cyberattacks, or new sanctions. While China is a major Iranian trading partner, Trump did not name any specific countries in his social media statement. According to Dan Kritenbrink, a partner at The Asia Group and former State Department official, the administration appears focused on applying economic pressure to Iran as a first step before considering other measures.

It is unlikely that China will simply accept the 25% tariffs without responding; they are probably preparing to implement countermeasures. China is also expected to maintain its oil purchases, particularly considering ongoing developments in Venezuela, and may use its relationships with countries such as Iran to support U.S. diplomatic efforts. The situation underscores the complex and strategic nature of international energy relations.

This news pushed oil prices toward the lower end of the range. The market is going to be watching the developments and any signs of how President Trump is going to respond which could change the negative momentum that we’ve seen in the cost of oil and products over the last few weeks. The market’s also going to take its cue from the short term energy outlook being released by the Energy Information Administration today most will want to see if they back off their productions of an oil glut and also focus on their oil production numbers. Some expect that we will see a downward revision in U.S. oil production which might put some more upward momentum on oil prices

Just when traders thought they’d caught a break, Mother Nature throws another curveball. Last week’s mild temperatures sent natural gas prices tumbling, but don’t get too comfortable—forecasts now call for colder weather, and prices are already clawing their way back. Call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665 to get involved. It’s a classic whipsaw and the market’s watching every radar update like a hawk.

Working gas in storage clocked in at 3,256 Bcf as of January 2—down a hefty 119 Bcf from the previous week. That’s a bigger draw than the experts expected, but here’s the kicker: we’re still running just a bit above the five-year average, keeping the bulls and bears guessing.

On the supply side, production’s holding strong—even though the rig count slipped a hair. Meanwhile, LNG exports are humming along near record levels, sending American gas to eager buyers overseas. If you’re eyeing the longer-term game, the 12-month strip is trading around $3.54 per MMBtu. Bottom line? The weather’s stealing the spotlight, storage draws are bigger than expected, and global demand is helping set the stage for some fireworks in the natural gas market.

According to Fox Weather, a strong clipper system is expected to bring snow across the Great Lakes, setting the stage for another winter storm. The upcoming weather event is forecasted to affect at least 25 states, with snow showers possibly reaching as far south as North Carolina and Tennessee. Meanwhile, the Midwest and interior Northeast’s lake-effect snowbelts are likely to see the heaviest accumulations.

Initial forecasts indicated that this sizable clipper, moving toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday, would drive a complex winter storm and deliver significant snowfall to the East. However, before the system arrives, a wave of warmer air is anticipated to shift much of the precipitation to rain rather than snow. This rain is expected to push eastward and impact the East Coast by Wednesday (Source: Fox Weather).

Make sure you download the Fox Weather ap to keep up to date with the latest market moving weather developments. Stay tuned to the Fox Business Network invested in you! Call to get signed up for the daily trade as well as my special reports. Call 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com