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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 12/31/2025

By On December 31, 2025 - 9:40 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 31
    For the week ended Dec 18, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
               wk’s net chg                  total
               in commitments             commitments      undlvd sales
                 this yr    next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr
wheat              147.8       46.5   19901.8   16764.2   5436.9    102.3
  hrw              165.6        0.0    7307.1    3950.2   1712.8     15.5
  srw              -37.0       30.0    2793.7    2573.5    837.4     59.9
  hrs               90.8        0.0    5019.8    5469.5   1372.5      0.0
  white            -76.3       16.5    4383.2    4454.9   1371.7     26.9
  durum              4.7        0.0     398.0     316.0    142.5      0.0
corn              2202.3       21.4   49781.1   38023.9  25163.2    851.2
soybeans          1055.7       -4.8   26833.2   39547.0  12505.9     46.4
soymeal            299.1        1.5    8783.9    8100.3   5182.0     12.5
soyoil              49.2      -23.5     257.7     526.7    145.5      4.0
upland cotton      182.7        0.9    6365.6    7485.9   3674.0    472.4
pima cotton          9.1        0.0     196.2     238.8     65.8      0.0
sorghum            317.6        0.0    1994.1    1097.9   1462.6      0.0
barley               0.0        0.0      69.1      30.3     36.4      0.0
rice                42.9        0.0    1375.9    1844.7    544.4      0.0
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 31
Source: CME Group
              Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade
Commodity     Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL   January    Jan 02, 2026                7   Sep 08, 2025
ROUGH RICE    January    Jan 02, 2026              505   Dec 30, 2025
SOYBEAN       January    Jan 02, 2026            1,062   Dec 15, 2025
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed lower again yesterday in holiday trading and on continued reports of big world production and weaker demand.  News that Russia had bombed Ukrainian ports over the previous weekend did not move the market much as the bombing has been heavy for a couple of weeks now.  Demand ideas are under pressure from ideas and reports of big competition for sales.  The threat for additional bombings of freighters by either Russia or Ukraine kept futures supported to some extent.  World prices were weaker last week due to reports of strong production in exporter countries and mostly the countries in the global south.  Production has been good in northern hemisphere countries.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be very good.  Demand has been weaker for various origins including Russia.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 511, 504, and 500 March, with resistance at 525, 530, and 536 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 514, 509, and 503 March, with resistance at 536, 540, and 550 March. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was a little lower yesterday.  Ideas are that the market is too cheap and that farmers have sold what they need to for now.  The recent selling appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.  Trends are turning down in the market.  The harvest is over in the delta and Mid South.  California is about done with its harvest.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down.  Support is at 958, 925, and 916 January and resistance is at 1004, 1021, and 1028 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments:  Corn was a little lower yesterday.  The demand for export and for bio energy needs has held strong.  Trends are mixed.  There have been ideas that traders expect weaker demand news from now on but demand overall has been very strong and above USDA projections until now.  Ideas are that export demand is less now due to increased competition in the world market and ethanol demand is less as well.  Reports indicate that many elevators are holding less Corn than expected.  Temperatures should average below normal this week.  Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 442, 440, and 435 March, and resistance is at 453, 457, and 460 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up.  Support is at 284, 278, and 27\5 March, and resistance is at 312, 317, and 320 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were little changed and Soybean Meal closed a little lower yesterday, but Soybean Oil was a little higher.  It seems that the market is now more concerned about big supplies coming soon from South America with the Soybeans harvest there just weeks away.  The Trump administration says that China is on pace to buy the 12 million tons of US Soybeans it announced a few weeks ago by the end of February, and China has already bought a lot to reach that goal.  It is already on a record pace for imports from all origins this year.  The US will have to compete with South America for sales in a diminishing Chinese market and with other world buyers and US prices are currently too high to complete many new sales anywhere in the world market except Canada and Mexico.  The Chinese hog herd is being reduced and this means less demand for Soybeans and Soybean Meal.  Temperatures will average below normal in the Midwest this week.
Overnight News:
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1045, 1027, and 1019 January, and resistance is at 1071, 1082, and  1086 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 298.00, 295.00, and 292.00 January, and resistance is at 311.00, 316.00, and 319.00 January.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4740, 4680, and 4620 January, with resistance at 4940, 4980, and 5070 January
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were lower today.  There are still ideas of increasing supplies available to the market.  Futures were higher today in reports of increased demand.  There are still Indonesian plans to increase the use of Palm Oil in biofuels blends.  There are still ideas of increasing production.  The market sentiment overall is turning bearish on ideas of increasing stocks to the market and some concerns about demand   Canola was higher.  There are ideas of a big Soybeans harvest coming from South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 574.00, 568.00, and 562.00 January, with resistance at 614.00, 624.00, and 632.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3880, 3820, and 3760 March, with resistance at 4130, 4160, and 4200 March.
DJ Malaysia Dec. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports Fell 5.2% on Month to 1,197,434 Tons, AmSpec Says
  By Ying Xian Wong
  Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Dec. 1-31 period are estimated down 5.2% on month at 1,197,434 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
  The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
  (All figures in metric tons)
                        Dec. 1-31      Nov. 1-30
   RBD Palm Olein         213,500        275,789
   RBD Palm Oil           109,607        163,197
   RBD Palm Stearin       104,082        102,666
   Crude Palm Oil         304,730        283,150
   Total*               1,197,434      1,263,298
  *Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  03-28-25 0623ET
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 31
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           1020.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Feb           1030.00    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Mar           1035.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1037.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1032.50    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           1025.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Feb           1035.00    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Mar           1040.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1042.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1037.50    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan          1010.00     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           1007.50    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           4,030.00   -20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jan           411.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.0555)
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