Iranian Uprising. The Energy Report 12/30/2025

Instead of “death to America” now the Iranian people are shouting “death to the dictator” (referring to Supreme Leader Khamenei) which let’s face it has a much better ring to it.

Demands for regime change are now coming directly from the Iranian people themselves, not from foreign leaders or politicians. What began as protests in Tehran have expanded to other major cities like Hamadan, Isfahan, Shiraz, and Mashhad, reflecting a widespread sentiment that the population has grown weary of the current Iranian regime.

So now the regime that is lashing out, saying that they’re at war with just about everyone in the Western world, labeled the Canadian Navy as a terrorist group showing quite clearly that the Ayatollah might not only be  losing his grip on power but perhaps on reality as well.

Well, we know that  the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has lost on reality as he stated that Iran is engaged in a “full-fledged war” with the United States, Israel, and Europe, framing it as an existential struggle where these powers “do not want our country to stand on its feet.”

Obviously, the Iranian President is trying to shift blame to the West and for all the problems that the Iranian people are having with their terrible economy and the oppressive government.

He’s blaming the sanctions and isolation for their problems spouting things like the Iran’s going to take a more decisive response to any further aggression and that the Iranian military would crush their enemies and maintains full readiness across naval land missile forces.  Yet the reality as the Iranian people know that the Iranian government has brought this on themselves.

Iran has a long history of crushing dissent, and it’s no stranger to bloody crackdowns. Back in 1999, the regime had its own version of Tiananmen Square, unleashing violence on student demonstrators—officially, only one death (Ezzat Ebrahim-Nejad) was confirmed, but opposition and human rights groups reported up to nine killed, hundreds wounded, and more than a thousand arrested. Fast forward to the 2009 Green Movement, ignited by contested election results: the government admitted to around 36 deaths, though opposition sources said the toll was at least double that, with students again bearing the brunt, including deadly beatings and shootings on National Students Day. Then came the 2022–2023 Mahsa Amini protests, sparked by her death at the hands of the morality police, which turned into the bloodiest crackdown yet. Security forces gunned down at least 551 protesters, including 68 children and scores of university students, according to United Nations and Iran Human Rights reports.

The regime that is lashing out, saying that they’re at war with just about everyone in the Western world, labeled the Canadian Navy as a terrorist group. Then, with an Ayatollah who may be losing his grip—perhaps on reality, but also on power—this comes against the backdrop of rising oil prices driven by increasing demand expectations. You have the right amount of geopolitical backdrop influencing the oil price.

And for the price of oil if we do indeed get a regime change it would be a bearish event just like it would be if we could have regime change in Venezuela the lifting of sanctions on those two countries if that would be a desired outcome would be a big win for President Trump as that would put downward pressure on the oil prices

Despite there are still lingering questions about the pace of a Ukraine-Russia peace agreement and the price impact of the ongoing embargo on Venezuelan oil.  Energy Intelligence reported that

Two Chevron-chartered vessels recently unloaded Venezuelan oil at US ports, with three more en route. Chevron completed unloading the Searuby and is currently offloading the Canopus Voyager. The energy market remains alert for potential supply disruptions from Venezuela as US tensions escalate and the White House aims to curb Venezuelan revenue.

President Donald Trump’s push to put an end to the Ukraine war just hit a new speed bump when Vladimir Putin announced he’s changing up Russia’s negotiating stance—his reason? He claims Ukrainian drones tried to strike his own residence. Zelenskyy wasted no time, calling Putin’s story “a new lie,” and warning that it’s probably just Moscow laying the groundwork for another assault, maybe even an attack on Kyiv’s government buildings.

Still, Putin told Trump that Moscow wants to stay at the table and work with the U.S. on peace, but now he’s saying all previous deals are up for review. So, while the two leaders agreed to keep the lines of communication open, there’s no doubt the path forward is looking for a lot more complicated than it did just a few days ago.

The continued embargo has sparked stories of Venezuelan oil poised and ready to enter the global market once restrictions ease. If exports resume, Venezuela could see its oil flowing freely again. Meanwhile, after a brief dip in silver and gold yesterday, oil stands out as an incredible value—still one of the most attractively priced commodities out there.

Oil prices are experiencing a notable upswing, driven by surging global demand and renewed optimism surrounding potential diplomatic breakthroughs. Despite recent pullbacks in the metals market, oil continues to shine as one of the most compelling values relative to its historical performance. Kicking off the week, prices jumped more than 2% as markets reacted enthusiastically to reports that Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy are making substantial progress on a revised peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict—Trump even expressed confidence, saying the deal is “close to 95%” done. This wave of positive momentum and forward movement in diplomacy is sparking renewed confidence throughout the energy sector.

While significant strides have been made, teams are set to reconvene soon, with the future of the Donbas region still a key topic for negotiation. Meanwhile, the upward trend in oil prices is also being fueled by heightened geopolitical activity in the Middle East, including Saudi airstrikes in Yemen and Iran’s announcement of a “full-scale war” against the U.S., Israel, and Europe. These developments are all contributing to the energetic outlook in global energy markets.

  First it was Russia that wanted to control he Arctic now its China .The Wall Street Journal writes that Chinese research submarines explored deep under Arctic ice for the first time this summer, a development that highlights China’s growing technical capabilities and strategic ambitions in the region. U.S. officials are concerned these activities expand China’s presence in the Arctic, which could impact American and allied security interests.

China’s increased Arctic activity serves several purposes: gathering data on resources beneath melting ice, opening faster shipping lanes, and potentially positioning military assets closer to the U.S. China claims its Arctic operations are peaceful, but Western military experts warn that these research missions often support both civilian and military objectives.

Recent operations—such as sending a cargo ship across the North Pole and joint military patrols with Russia—demonstrate China’s intent to develop new Arctic routes and deepen its partnership with Moscow. Both countries have boosted their presence near Alaska and collaborated on military exercises, raising concerns about coordinated moves against North American targets.

he U.S. and its allies are responding by increasing military training, enhancing submarine patrols, and strengthening regional defense agreements. The ongoing expansion of Chinese and Russian icebreaker fleets also reflects the growing competition for influence in the Arctic.

China’s dual-use approach—leveraging scientific expeditions to support military objectives—mirrors its strategy in the South China Sea, raising alarms about potential militarization of the Arctic. Analysts note that China’s early involvement could allow it to shape future regulations and gain long-term strategic advantages, though growing Chinese activity might also create friction with Russia.

Overall, China’s expanding Arctic presence, technological advances, and strategic partnerships are changing the region’s security landscape, prompting both vigilance and countermeasures from the U.S. and its allies.

Fin Squawk reports that Global exports of liquefied natural gas in 2025 likely saw the biggest jump in 3 years, as new supply came online in North America. Exports are estimated to have risen 4% from last year to 429 million tons, according to Kpler, which tracks shipping data. The US is poised to cement its role as a major exporter, becoming the first ever to ship out more than 100 million tons of LNG this year.

Global exports of liquefied natural gas in 2025 likely saw the biggest jump in 3 years, as new supply came online in North America. Exports are estimated to have risen 4% from last year to 429 million tons. That’d be the largest annual increase since 2022, when exports climbed 4.5% from the year before, the data showed. The rise was largely driven by projects like LNG.

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Thanks,

Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report

Contributor to FOX Business Network

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