It’s that time of year. Leverage is the name of the game and in the week leading up to Christmas, the parents have it all. The one handy thing of having kids that believe there is a jolly man dressed in red, with a big white beard is that we can always remind them of what is at hand. Behave, or else. Depending on who you’re talking too, the naughty and nice list below shows the soybean complex and part of the wheat getting a bear in their stocking, with the corn and cattle markets looking at a bull.
Corn posted back and forth trade over the week, as March closed with a 3 cent gain. Weekly Export Inspections showed 1.589 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 12/11, with marketing year to date shipments are 69.7% above a year ago at 22.5 MMT. EIA data showed ethanol production improving to another record, up 26,000 barrels per day in the week ending on December 15 to a 1.131 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were down just 157,000 barrels at 22.353 million barrels, as both exports and refiner inputs of ethanol were up. USDA Export Sales data was updated twice again this week, with 1.84 MMT sold in the week of 11/20 and 1.79 MMT for the week of November 27. Commitment of Traders data got 3 updates this week and is now just a week behind, as managed money trimmed 13,552 contracts from their net long as of December 9 to 9,718 contracts.
Wheat was mixed again this week, as the winter wheat contracts continued to feel pressure. Kansas City was down just 2 3/4 cents this week, as March Chicago felt the pressure, falling down 19 ½ cents. March MPLS spring wheat was back up 2 ¼ cents from last Friday. Daily export news was light, though China did cancel 132,000 MT of white wheat purchased in late November. Export Inspections improved to 488,025 MT in the week of 12/11, with accumulated shipments at 14.12 MMT (+21.9% yr/yr). Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 11/20 was at 361,715 MT, with the second release on Thursday morning at 460,655 MT in the week of 11/27. CFTC data from the week of December 9 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options at a net short of 46,069 contracts. In KC wheat, they were net short 17,011 contracts in that week.
Soybeans continued to be under pressure this week, as January was another 27 ½ cents in the red over the course of the week. Products added pressure, as Jan soybean meal was down $4.90/ton on the week, as bean oil was 217 points (-4.33%) lower. NOPA data remains solid, with November crush at 216 million bushels, a 5.1% drop from October but a November record. Stocks of bean oil were up 39.58% from last year at 1.513 billion lbs. On top of the added bean oil supplies, EPA is planning to delay finalization of the 2026 RVO total, causing some uncertainty to remain. FGIS export inspections data showed soybean shipments improving to 795,661 MT in the week of December 1. That is still seasonally low, with marketing year shipments down 46.3% from the same period last year. Export Sales data had a couple updates this week, with 2.232 MMT sold in the week ending on 11/20 and 1.106 MT in the week of November 27. USDA confirmed 707,000 MT of daily soybean sales this week, with 468,000 MT to China, as their known total for the marketing year is at 4.6 MMT. CFTC data is still a week behind schedule, though the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders net long 180,338 contracts by December 9.
Live cattle were back to higher trade this week, as February was up $1.25 form last Friday. Cash trade slipped back this week and was lighter on the holiday trade, with USDA confirming $228 live and $356-358 dressed. Feeders were higher, as Jan was up $6.50 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up just $3.28 week/week to $350.05. Wholesale boxed beef prices were back with strength this week. Choice was up $4.10/cwt (1.2%) on the week to $361.63, as Select was $1.80 (0.5%) higher at $346.02 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was down 1.2% from last week and 1.9% below the same week last year at 525.8 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.1% lower on a 6.9% decline in slaughter. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report showed November placements at 1.595 million head, a 11.19% drop from last year. Marketings were 1.521 million head, down 11.83% vs. 2024. December 1 on feed totaled 11.727 million head a 2.13% drop from last year. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 88,290 contracts as of December 9 in the latest Commitment of Traders report. Feeders were net long 14,261 contracts on that date.
Hogs were back and forth all week, with February posting a single tick loss from last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.31 this week at $83.88 as of December 17. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up another $1.55 (1.6%) this week to $99.76/cwt. Just the picnic and belly were lower on the week. Weekly pork production was down 1.1% from last week but 4.8% above the same week last year at 585.9 million lbs. Pork production to date is down 1.1% on a 1.5% drop in slaughter. Spec traders were taking their net long down to just 51,471 contracts in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on December 9.
Cotton futures saw some slight losses this week, with March 8 points lower from last Friday. Cotton Ginnings data showed a total of 10.212 million RB of cotton ginned by December 15, down 10% from the same week last year. Export Sales from the week of 11/20 were tallied at 148,396 RB, with 11/27 sales totaling 135,886 RB. The weekly Adjusted World Price was updated to 49.99 cents/lb this week, down 40 points from the week prior. After 3 releases this week, Commitment of Traders data is updated through December 9, with spec funds in cotton futures and options holding a net short position of 55,013 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week’s holiday shortened week will start with the Export Inspections report out on Monday morning. USDA will release a couple catchup Export Sales reports for the week of 12/4 on Monday and the week of 12/11 on Tuesday morning. Tuesday will also have the release of the monthly (and back-dated) Cold Storage report, as well as the quarterly Hogs & Pigs report. The weekly EIA data will not be reported next week due to the 24th and the 26th being declared federal holidays in an Executive Order signed this week. The government will be off all three days. The market will close early on Wednesday for Christmas Eve, with Thursday closed for Christmas. Friday will have a hard open at 8:30 am CST.
Tech Talk: March Corn
March corn has shifted sideways. That is apparent by the stochastics crossing in low neutral. The early week selling stalled out near the 100-day moving average after the uptrends off the August and October lows failed. That support was also in the area of the November low at $4.34 1/2, as buyers stopped in at $4.35 ¼. That has the setup for a double bottom. Resistance has come via a 200-day moving average at $4.46 ¼, with a short term down trend off the Nov high at $4.46. Breaking that would suggest a test of the $4.57 area. We are forming a descending triangle, with a count of 23 cents on any potential breakout. On a broad scale this pullback looks like wave 4 of a 5 wave pattern, with the 5th wave hinting at a break above $4.57.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Naughty or Nice. Ag Marketing Report 12/22/2025
It’s that time of year. Leverage is the name of the game and in the week leading up to Christmas, the parents have it all. The one handy thing of having kids that believe there is a jolly man dressed in red, with a big white beard is that we can always remind them of what is at hand. Behave, or else. Depending on who you’re talking too, the naughty and nice list below shows the soybean complex and part of the wheat getting a bear in their stocking, with the corn and cattle markets looking at a bull.
Corn posted back and forth trade over the week, as March closed with a 3 cent gain. Weekly Export Inspections showed 1.589 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 12/11, with marketing year to date shipments are 69.7% above a year ago at 22.5 MMT. EIA data showed ethanol production improving to another record, up 26,000 barrels per day in the week ending on December 15 to a 1.131 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were down just 157,000 barrels at 22.353 million barrels, as both exports and refiner inputs of ethanol were up. USDA Export Sales data was updated twice again this week, with 1.84 MMT sold in the week of 11/20 and 1.79 MMT for the week of November 27. Commitment of Traders data got 3 updates this week and is now just a week behind, as managed money trimmed 13,552 contracts from their net long as of December 9 to 9,718 contracts.
Wheat was mixed again this week, as the winter wheat contracts continued to feel pressure. Kansas City was down just 2 3/4 cents this week, as March Chicago felt the pressure, falling down 19 ½ cents. March MPLS spring wheat was back up 2 ¼ cents from last Friday. Daily export news was light, though China did cancel 132,000 MT of white wheat purchased in late November. Export Inspections improved to 488,025 MT in the week of 12/11, with accumulated shipments at 14.12 MMT (+21.9% yr/yr). Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 11/20 was at 361,715 MT, with the second release on Thursday morning at 460,655 MT in the week of 11/27. CFTC data from the week of December 9 had specs in CBT wheat futures and options at a net short of 46,069 contracts. In KC wheat, they were net short 17,011 contracts in that week.
Soybeans continued to be under pressure this week, as January was another 27 ½ cents in the red over the course of the week. Products added pressure, as Jan soybean meal was down $4.90/ton on the week, as bean oil was 217 points (-4.33%) lower. NOPA data remains solid, with November crush at 216 million bushels, a 5.1% drop from October but a November record. Stocks of bean oil were up 39.58% from last year at 1.513 billion lbs. On top of the added bean oil supplies, EPA is planning to delay finalization of the 2026 RVO total, causing some uncertainty to remain. FGIS export inspections data showed soybean shipments improving to 795,661 MT in the week of December 1. That is still seasonally low, with marketing year shipments down 46.3% from the same period last year. Export Sales data had a couple updates this week, with 2.232 MMT sold in the week ending on 11/20 and 1.106 MT in the week of November 27. USDA confirmed 707,000 MT of daily soybean sales this week, with 468,000 MT to China, as their known total for the marketing year is at 4.6 MMT. CFTC data is still a week behind schedule, though the Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders net long 180,338 contracts by December 9.
Live cattle were back to higher trade this week, as February was up $1.25 form last Friday. Cash trade slipped back this week and was lighter on the holiday trade, with USDA confirming $228 live and $356-358 dressed. Feeders were higher, as Jan was up $6.50 on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up just $3.28 week/week to $350.05. Wholesale boxed beef prices were back with strength this week. Choice was up $4.10/cwt (1.2%) on the week to $361.63, as Select was $1.80 (0.5%) higher at $346.02 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was down 1.2% from last week and 1.9% below the same week last year at 525.8 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.1% lower on a 6.9% decline in slaughter. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report showed November placements at 1.595 million head, a 11.19% drop from last year. Marketings were 1.521 million head, down 11.83% vs. 2024. December 1 on feed totaled 11.727 million head a 2.13% drop from last year. CFTC reported managed money in live cattle futures and options at a net long of 88,290 contracts as of December 9 in the latest Commitment of Traders report. Feeders were net long 14,261 contracts on that date.
Hogs were back and forth all week, with February posting a single tick loss from last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.31 this week at $83.88 as of December 17. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up another $1.55 (1.6%) this week to $99.76/cwt. Just the picnic and belly were lower on the week. Weekly pork production was down 1.1% from last week but 4.8% above the same week last year at 585.9 million lbs. Pork production to date is down 1.1% on a 1.5% drop in slaughter. Spec traders were taking their net long down to just 51,471 contracts in lean hog futures and options as of the week ending on December 9.
Cotton futures saw some slight losses this week, with March 8 points lower from last Friday. Cotton Ginnings data showed a total of 10.212 million RB of cotton ginned by December 15, down 10% from the same week last year. Export Sales from the week of 11/20 were tallied at 148,396 RB, with 11/27 sales totaling 135,886 RB. The weekly Adjusted World Price was updated to 49.99 cents/lb this week, down 40 points from the week prior. After 3 releases this week, Commitment of Traders data is updated through December 9, with spec funds in cotton futures and options holding a net short position of 55,013 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week’s holiday shortened week will start with the Export Inspections report out on Monday morning. USDA will release a couple catchup Export Sales reports for the week of 12/4 on Monday and the week of 12/11 on Tuesday morning. Tuesday will also have the release of the monthly (and back-dated) Cold Storage report, as well as the quarterly Hogs & Pigs report. The weekly EIA data will not be reported next week due to the 24th and the 26th being declared federal holidays in an Executive Order signed this week. The government will be off all three days. The market will close early on Wednesday for Christmas Eve, with Thursday closed for Christmas. Friday will have a hard open at 8:30 am CST.
Tech Talk: March Corn
March corn has shifted sideways. That is apparent by the stochastics crossing in low neutral. The early week selling stalled out near the 100-day moving average after the uptrends off the August and October lows failed. That support was also in the area of the November low at $4.34 1/2, as buyers stopped in at $4.35 ¼. That has the setup for a double bottom. Resistance has come via a 200-day moving average at $4.46 ¼, with a short term down trend off the Nov high at $4.46. Breaking that would suggest a test of the $4.57 area. We are forming a descending triangle, with a count of 23 cents on any potential breakout. On a broad scale this pullback looks like wave 4 of a 5 wave pattern, with the 5th wave hinting at a break above $4.57.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.