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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 12/11/2025

By On December 11, 2025 - 10:00 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ U.S. September Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Dec 11
   In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
                       —-Sep 2025—-                —-Aug 2025—-
  -coffee-               kilograms          pounds       kilograms        pounds
coffee, unroasted      949,798,174   2,094,304,974      77,092,672   169,989,342
coffee, roasted         65,832,811     145,161,348       2,464,723     5,434,714
coffee, soluble
   instant              61,278,602     135,119,317       6,097,441    13,444,857
  -Cocoa-
cocoa beans            273,748,165     603,614,704      18,003,403    39,697,504
sweetened bars/block
  10 lbs or over        22,068,500      48,661,043       1,513,376     3,336,994
for retail candy             9,750          21,499               0             0
cocoa butter            98,393,941     216,958,640       6,601,210    14,555,668
cocoa paste,
  not defatted          74,061,789     163,306,245       9,130,143    20,131,965
cocoa paste
   defatted             47,698,181     105,174,489       6,262,102    13,807,935
cocoa powder,
   unsweetened          86,272,768     190,231,453       9,833,746    21,683,410
cocoa powder,
    sweetened            1,331,649       2,936,286         116,811       257,568
confectioners
   coating              47,377,495     104,467,376       4,920,836    10,850,443
candy containing
 chocolate             150,627,651     332,133,970      17,254,348    38,045,837
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was a little higher yesterday as the market anticipates a better stock market due to rate cuts by the Fed.  USDA on Tuesday showed increased ending stocks levels to 4.5 million bales due to increased production and a slight cut in domestic demand.  World ending stocks were increased to 75.97 million bales.  Futures might have found  low today at 63.55 cents before the reports were released and then bounced from there before holding the increase after the report was released..  Farmers are not selling too much due to price, but buyers are hard to find.  A lack of new Chinese demand has been important and a reason to see lower US prices.  The lack of demand seems to be part of the price for now but the demand is not a reason to see a rally anytime soon.  The US harvest is over.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 185 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 63.20, 62.00, and 60.80 March, with resistance of 64.90, 65.40 and 65.90 March.
DJ U.S. September Cotton Exports-Dec 11
    In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
                                      ——- In Kilograms ——-
                                Sep 25      Aug 25      Jul 25        Sep 24
Upland, under 1 inch         2,538,179   2,542,910   4,171,386     3,397,323
  1 to 1 1/8 inch           30,383,047  36,824,060  53,951,586    26,645,358
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc    4,024,140   5,856,773   9,169,845     5,097,410
  upland 1 1/8 and over     91,984,920  94,745,533 136,818,929    74,287,555
All cotton                 128,930,286 139,969,276 204,111,746   109,427,646
                              ——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
                                Sep 25      Aug 25      Jul 25        Sep 24
Upland, under 1 inch            11,658      11,679      19,159        15,604
  1 to 1 1/8 inch              139,548     169,132     247,798       122,381
  upland 1 1/8 and over         18,483      26,900      42,117        23,412
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc      422,483     435,163     628,404       341,200
All cotton                     592,172     642,874     937,478       502,597
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 11
    For the week ended Nov 13, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
Source: USDA
               wk’s net chg                  total
               in commitments             commitments      undlvd sales
                 this yr    next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr
upland cotton      187.6        1.8    5440.7    6364.2   3374.9    448.6
pima cotton          8.9        0.0     161.5     214.3     63.6      0.0
FCOJ
General Comments:  Futures were lower again yesterday, and the trends are still mixed on the daily and weekly charts.  Trading has been choppy lately as the market remains in a sideways trading range.  Traders are worried about demand even with lower prices.  FCOJ from Brazil has been subjected to tariffs but those have been stopped by the US for now.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with occasional showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down.  Support is at 143.00, 13300, and 128.00 January, with resistance at 158.00, 164.00, and 173.00 January.
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York was higher and London was mostly higher yesterday, and trends are still mixed in New York and are still down in London due to ideas of increasing harvest sales from Vietnam.  Scattered showers are being reported now to improve tree condition in Brazil.  Mexico is in good condition, as is Central America.  Vietnam has seen too much rain as typhoons hit the country, but the rains are receding now and harvesting has resumed.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 316.81 ct/lb.  ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 734 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 363.00, 359.00, and 352.00 March, and resistance is at 390.00, 400.00 and 415.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 4140, 4000, and 3950 January, with resistance at 4600, 4690, and 4790 January.
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were higher yesterday despite ideas of good supplies for the market.  Trends are sideways to down, but the selling could be running out of steam.  There are still ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  The prospect of a big global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increased supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1400 March and resistance is at 1520, 1540, and 1610 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 416.00, 410.00, and 408.00 March, with resistance at 437.00, 445.00, and 452.00 March.
COCOA
General Comments:  New York and London closed higher and at new highs for the move yesterday.  A big main crop harvest is anticipated in West Africa and rains have been positive for crops lately.  Light rains mixed with heat in Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions last week signaled a positive outlook for the main crop.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.
Overnight News:  ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,514 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up.  Support is at 5270, 4930, and 4820 March, with resistance at 6510, 6710, and 7150 March.  Trends in London are up.  Support is at 3830, 3650, and 3600 March, with resistance at 4700, 4860, and 5070 March.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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