Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the week with Consumer Inflation Expectations and Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., #-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M. Remember we have December WASDE tomorrow and Fed Decision on interest rates on Wednesday.,
It’s gut check time for soybean bulls amid renewed uncertainty over China’s commitment to secure US-origin supply in bulk, favorable South American weather and now confirmation of sizable fund length. Managed funds on Oct 30th just one week after Trump & Xi’s summit – were long a net 118,000 contracts, far more than expected and Ag Resources (ARC) estimates manage fund net length in soybeans this morning at 155-160,000 contracts. This rivals fund’s positions of 2014 & 2021-2023. ARC views the biggest challenge to soy rallies moving forward as being routine/typical South American weather and the looming start to Brazil’s new crop harvest in January. Assitional liquidation unfolds if Chinese buying does not occur on a daily basis in December.
South American Weather Pattern Update
South Am Forecast Consistent; Wet in All but Southern Crop Areas of Argentina; Heat Absent Next Two Weeks:
The principal forecasting models are consistent and in excellent agreement. Confidence is rising with respect to wetter than normal conditions being established across northern Argentina, Paraguay and all of southern Brazil into Dec19th. The EU ensemble model’s two-week percent of normal precipitation is forecast. Only Buenos Aires & La Pampa in Argentina will be left arid, which will be monitored but which in the short term allows wheat harvesting/soy planting to catch up there. Rain soaks Argentina, Paraguay & S Brazil in a range .75-2.00”. Regular tropical showers will blanket central & southern Brazil on a near daily basis, with totals upward of 3-4” forecast into Dec 19 across Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, and Sao Paulo. Surplus soil moisture will be established nation-wide in Brazil by late month.
March corn remains bound to key moving averages, with bullish enthusiasm absent above $4.50 and new selling absent below $4.35-$4.40. ARC maintains that supply-driven bear risk resume in Jan/Feb amid the potential for record large Argentine production, but the incredible pace of export disappearance and rising premiums & interior cash price in Brazil offer a pillar of support. US corn is again the world’s cheapest, but the market has been unfazed by exports sales/shipments so far. ARC agrees that export demand of 2.8+ Bil Bu isn’t overly bullish amid record production. In fact, the unremarkable performance of fob premiums & interior cash prices underscore the need for record exports to balance supply & demand. Note Ukrainian cash prices are falling as South American cash prices rally. Balance has been found, but new supply loss is unlikely in Argentina, and so dislocation gets pushed off to Brazilian safrinha yield performance in Apr/May ’26. ARC sees corn as bound to $4.20-$4.50, basis spot Chi. Record global feed supplies cap rallies.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Soybean Bulls Retreat as China Demand Disappears. The Corn & Ethanol Report 12/08/2025
We kickoff the week with Consumer Inflation Expectations and Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., #-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M. Remember we have December WASDE tomorrow and Fed Decision on interest rates on Wednesday.,
It’s gut check time for soybean bulls amid renewed uncertainty over China’s commitment to secure US-origin supply in bulk, favorable South American weather and now confirmation of sizable fund length. Managed funds on Oct 30th just one week after Trump & Xi’s summit – were long a net 118,000 contracts, far more than expected and Ag Resources (ARC) estimates manage fund net length in soybeans this morning at 155-160,000 contracts. This rivals fund’s positions of 2014 & 2021-2023. ARC views the biggest challenge to soy rallies moving forward as being routine/typical South American weather and the looming start to Brazil’s new crop harvest in January. Assitional liquidation unfolds if Chinese buying does not occur on a daily basis in December.
South American Weather Pattern Update
South Am Forecast Consistent; Wet in All but Southern Crop Areas of Argentina; Heat Absent Next Two Weeks:
The principal forecasting models are consistent and in excellent agreement. Confidence is rising with respect to wetter than normal conditions being established across northern Argentina, Paraguay and all of southern Brazil into Dec19th. The EU ensemble model’s two-week percent of normal precipitation is forecast. Only Buenos Aires & La Pampa in Argentina will be left arid, which will be monitored but which in the short term allows wheat harvesting/soy planting to catch up there. Rain soaks Argentina, Paraguay & S Brazil in a range .75-2.00”. Regular tropical showers will blanket central & southern Brazil on a near daily basis, with totals upward of 3-4” forecast into Dec 19 across Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, and Sao Paulo. Surplus soil moisture will be established nation-wide in Brazil by late month.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Rallies Lack Follow Through; Market Stuck in Narrow Range:
March corn remains bound to key moving averages, with bullish enthusiasm absent above $4.50 and new selling absent below $4.35-$4.40. ARC maintains that supply-driven bear risk resume in Jan/Feb amid the potential for record large Argentine production, but the incredible pace of export disappearance and rising premiums & interior cash price in Brazil offer a pillar of support. US corn is again the world’s cheapest, but the market has been unfazed by exports sales/shipments so far. ARC agrees that export demand of 2.8+ Bil Bu isn’t overly bullish amid record production. In fact, the unremarkable performance of fob premiums & interior cash prices underscore the need for record exports to balance supply & demand. Note Ukrainian cash prices are falling as South American cash prices rally. Balance has been found, but new supply loss is unlikely in Argentina, and so dislocation gets pushed off to Brazilian safrinha yield performance in Apr/May ’26. ARC sees corn as bound to $4.20-$4.50, basis spot Chi. Record global feed supplies cap rallies.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374