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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 12/04/2025

By On December 4, 2025 - 12:07 PM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
Canada Crop Production Report – Dec 4
WINNIPEG–Canada 2025-26 grain/oilseed survey-based production estimates.
Source: Statistics Canada. Production in thousand metric tonnes, yield in
kg/hectare, area harvested in thousand hectares.
              Harvested     Avg              Production
                  area     yield    2025-26    2025-26    2024-25
                                        DEC        SEP      FINAL
barley         2,277.0     4,271    9,725.2    8,228.5    8,143.9
edible beans     171.4     2,555      437.9      351.8      424.1
canaryseed       129.3     1,817      234.9      185.4      185.3
canola         8,696.7     2,507   21,804.0   20,028.4   19,239.5
chickpeas        218.1     2,208      481.6      331.0      286.8
corn           1,460.3    10,181   14,867.3   15,500.2   15,344.9
faba beans        27.4     2,598       71.2        N/A       87.8
flaxseed         249.1     1,824      454.5      365.4      258.0
lentils        1,742.8     1,930    3,363.2    2,972.1    2,431.3
mixed grains      68.2     2,691      183.5      138.4      151.9
mustard          144.7       966      139.8      140.9      192.3
oats           1,048.7     3,738    3,919.8    3,369.9    3,357.6
dry peas       1,382.5     2,846    3,934.2    3,563.3    2,997.4
fall rye*        169.7     4,023      682.7      541.8      420.9
soybeans       2,321.1     2,927    6,793.2    7,133.5    7,568.0
sugar beets       13.1    77,335    1,013.1        N/A    1,444.9
sunflower seed    28.8     2,400       69.1       61.2       50.7
triticale         27.9     3,619      101.0        N/A      100.6
all wheat     10,615.3     3,764   39,954.8   36,624.0   35,938.8
durum wheat    2,592.9     2,752    7,135.0    6,534.6    6,380.3
spring wheat   7,403.3     3,952   29,259.0   26,607.5   26,515.2
winter wheat*    619.1     5,752    3,560.8    3,481.9    3,043.4
*Fall rye and winter wheat numbers represent what was remaining
after winterkill.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 4
    For the week ended Oct 30, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
               wk’s net chg                  total
               in commitments             commitments      undlvd sales
                 this yr    next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr
wheat              505.4       10.5   16804.5   13729.0   5228.0     35.3
  hrw              148.4        0.0    6440.7    3117.7   1801.4      2.5
  srw               84.6        0.0    2286.5    2248.2    641.7     22.4
  hrs              100.8        0.0    4160.4    4522.0   1215.8      0.0
  white            189.0       10.5    3623.2    3611.5   1465.2     10.5
  durum            -17.5        0.0     293.7     229.7    103.8      0.0
corn              1995.0      -22.9   37360.5   28586.3  25135.8    824.6
soybeans          1248.5        0.0   17196.4   27895.7   9628.6      8.7
soymeal            219.8        0.0    6554.5    5932.1   5312.7      0.0
soyoil               4.7        0.0     166.5     233.7    137.0     11.5
upland cotton       81.5        7.9    4960.9    5892.4   3144.2    350.0
pima cotton          8.2        0.0     146.7     200.5     60.3      0.0
sorghum            119.0        0.0     796.6     763.0    580.1      0.0
barley               0.5        0.0      57.6      24.6     32.4      0.0
rice                39.4        0.0    1031.5    1302.8    479.9      0.0
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 4
Source: CME Group
               Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade
Commodity      Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL    December   Dec 05, 2025               95   Nov 25, 2025
KC HRW WHEAT   December   Dec 05, 2025                3   Nov 25, 2025
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed lower yesterday on a lack of news from Ukraine or Russia, and demand for Wheat in export markets remains limited.  The threat for additional bombings of freighters by either Russia or Ukraine kept futures supported to some extent.  World prices turned weaker last week due to reports of strong production in exporter countries and mostly the countries in the global south.  Production has been good in northern hemisphere countries.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be very good.  Demand has been weaker for various origins including Russia.  In Australia, the government’s ABARES agency raised its forecast for the country’s 2025/26 wheat production by around 1.8 million tons to 35.6 million tons. That followed recent upward revisions to forecasts of Argentina’s crop, which is expected to reach a record volume.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 524, 517, and 507 March, with resistance at 555, 560, and 573 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 506, 501, and 494 March, with resistance at 540, 550, and 553 March. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was lower yesterday as the speculative selling resumed.  Commercials were only light buyers.  Ideas are that the market is too cheap and that farmers have sold what needs to be sold for now.  The recent selling has been to be relentless and appears tied to the weaker prices in Asia and especially India.  Trends are mixed in the market.  The harvest is over in the delta and Mid South.  California is about done with its harvest.  Yields and quality are mixed, but quality appears better than a year ago.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.  The charts show that futures are in a short term trading range.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed.  Support is at 976, 964, and 952 January and resistance is at 1028, 1056, and 1068 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday on ideas that traders expect weaker demand news from now on.  Ideas are that export demand is less now due to increased competition in the world market and ethanol demand is less as well.  Trends are mixed in the market.  Temperatures should average below normal this week.  Oats were lower, but trends are turning up anyway.
Overnight News:  Mexico bought 392,,500 tons of US Corn and Colombia bought 100,800 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 430, 426, and 423 March, and resistance is at 452, 455, and 457 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up.  Support is at 309, 302, and 297 March, and resistance is at 320, 323, and 325 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday as no new sales announcements were made by USDA to China or anywhere else.  The White House said it was talking to Chin about Soybeans again and that a deal is within reach again.  A deal had been announced several weeks ago for massive Soybeans purchases by China but apparently as of now it was not real.  The US will have to compete with South America for sales in a diminishing Chinese market and US prices are currently too high to complete many new sales.  The Chinese hog herd is being reduced and this means less demand for Soybeans and Soybean Meal.  Temperatures will average below normal in the Midwest this week.
Overnight News:
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1114, 1103, and 1071 January, and resistance is at 1148, 1169, and  1184 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 307.00, 304.00, and 301.00 January, and resistance is at 319.00, 323.00, and 333.00 January.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5100, 4980, and 4930 January, with resistance at 5320, 5420, and 5510 January.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were a little lower today on ideas of increasing monthly ending stocks due to reduced demand.  There are still Indonesian plans to increase the use of Palm Oil in biofuels blends.  There are still ideas of increasing production.  The market sentiment overall is turning bearish on ideas of increasing stocks to the market and on some concerns about demand   Canola was lower and trends are down on the daily charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 623.00, 618.00, and 616.00 January, with resistance at 645.00, 650.00, and 655.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are down.  Support is at 4010, 3940, and 3880 February, with resistance at 4200, 4270, and 4300 February.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 4
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec          1035.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1040.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1047.50    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1037.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1040.00    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1045.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1052.50    -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1042.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1017.50    +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec           1012.50    +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec            4,100.00   -30.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Dec            425.00     -03.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.1105)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  03-28-25 0623ET
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