Trumps Energy Balance. The Energy Report 12/03/2025

 You must give President Trump credit where credit is due.  Global oil markets appear to be in an impressive state of balance, thanks in part to policies from the Trump administration of balancing geopolitical risks and drill baby drill that have driven gasoline prices below $3 per gallon and helped keep oil prices low. This harmonious market environment comes as global demand for oil approaches record highs, fueled by robust demand growth around the world—particularly in the United States AND record-breaking US oil production.   And now According to AAA, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline has dipped below $3 for the first time since 2021. And there is nothing American’s Love more than falling gasoline prices. 

 This is happening as oil prices are popping a bit y, supported by a report from the American Petroleum Institute which found no evidence of a crude oil surplus.  In fact, there was a 2.48-million-barrel decline in crude oil supply last week.

Meanwhile, refiners responded to rising refining margins by boosting gasoline inventories by 3.14 million barrels and increasing distillate inventories by 2.88 million barrels. Additional figures showed crude oil in Cushing down by 89,000 barrels and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve up by 300,000 barrels.

Of course, President Trump’s critics don’t want to give him credit for lower gasoline prices, even though in both administrations his policies did lower gasoline prices. Everybody says there could be some other situation or outside forces that cause prices to go down, but they fail to give him credit. I think perhaps more than anything, the strong foreign policy by the Trump administration—by putting Iran back in their box—brought peace in the Middle East and reducing that risk have play a major role.  I believe that President Trump’s push towards peace in the Middle East, as well as his good relationship with Saudi Arabia, has had OPEC more open to keeping prices under control as opposed to the Biden administration, which had an adversarial relationship with Saudi Arabia and many other countries in the Middle East. President Trump’s pressure and push towards peace between Israel and Hamas and his neutralizing of the Houthi rebels has taken so much risk premium out of the price of oil. Under the past administration, risk premiums for oil ran wild—not only with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (you know, that “small little incursion” thing that President Biden was worried about), but also the rise of the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels and other increases in terror threats under the previous administration.

 Oil is watching Russia Ukraine peace deal outlooks.  The New York Post reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued Tuesday that “progress” had been made towards ending the nearly four-year-long war in Ukraine – and suggested Russian President Vladimir Putin is the main obstacle that remains.

“What we’re trying to see is if it’s possible to end the war in a way that protects Ukraine’s future that both sides could agree to,” Rubio told Fox News host Sean Hannity, after the Kremlin rejected the Trump administration’s latest plan to end the bloodshed.  Yet we also saw that Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Europe on Tuesday that Russia is prepared for military conflict if necessary. At a Moscow investment forum, he stated he does not seek war, but emphasized that if Europe initiates hostilities, Russia is ready and negotiations may no longer be possible.

We are also going to see the markets affected by the wickedly cold weather as Fox Weather continues to warn about a potential surge in an Arctic blast that is going to keep natural gas and other heating fuels supported. And one of the things that we must worry about of course is the cost of heating bills and its impact on consumers who haven’t really experienced this type of cold weather this early in many years which could strain many budgets.

 In fact, if you look  at a very interesting report from According to a November 2025 report on heating expenses in America, Kansas families pay the largest share of their income to afford utilities during winter. The study by the digital entertainment platform JB examined all 50 states by comparing seasonal bills to family earnings.      Kansas residents spend over 22% of their income on winter utilities, paying more than $500 every month.     Staying warm during the cold season is hardest in the Midwest, with Missouri, North Dakota, and Kansas all making the top 10 priciest states.   Ohio faces the highest heating costs at $536 per month, nearly 2 times what people in neighboring Indiana pay. The research examined how expensive it is for residents in every state to stay warm during winter. The study looked at heating, electricity, and water expenses. Each state’s total winter bills were then compared to incomes to reveal where families struggle most to afford these basics. States where utilities take up a bigger share of paychecks ranked higher in the study.

Kansas tops the list as the state where households struggle most with winter utility costs. On average, families spend $362 per month on heating, $129 on electricity, and $31 on water, totaling $522 in winter utility bills. With an average monthly income of only $2,353—the lowest in the nation—Kansas residents dedicate over 22% of their earnings to these essential expenses, making winter particularly challenging.

West Virginia ranks second, with residents allocating nearly 15% of their income to winter utilities. The average monthly heating bill reaches about $414, among the highest nationwide, and electricity piles on another $161. In total, utility costs approximate $680 per month, making it the state with the second-highest utility burden.

Ohio follows closely, where residents pay a substantial $536 each month for heating in January—almost $200 more than the national average. Electricity bills add $149, and water remains relatively low at $28. Altogether, Ohioans face $713 in monthly winter utility bills, making it the most expensive state for heating during the colder months.

Oklahoma claims the fourth spot, with families spending 13% of their monthly income on utilities. The average heating bill stands at $420, electricity at $150—reflecting higher energy usage—and the total winter utility bill comes to $614. This is especially significant given the state’s lower average income of $4,500 per month.

Rounding out the top five is Missouri, where households pay $405 per month for heating, $154 for electricity, and $42 for water, totaling $600 in winter utilities. Even though Missouri families earn about $500 more per month than those in Oklahoma, utilities still consume 12% of their income.

Commenting on these findings, the CEO of JB noted that while natural gas prices have surged by 30% since 2020, wages in many rural and Midwestern areas have not kept pace. As a result, families earning between $30,000 and $40,000 annually are finding it increasingly difficult to afford adequate heating. The problem is compounded in states like Ohio and West Virginia, where older, less energy-efficient housing leads to greater heat loss and higher energy consumption to maintain comfortable indoor temperatures.

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