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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 11/03/2025

By On December 3, 2025 - 11:28 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was a little lower yesterday after trading higher early in the day.  Futures could still work lower as cash market appears to be quiet.  Farmers are not selling too much due to price.  A lack of new Chinese demand has been important and a reason to see lower US prices.  The lack of demand seems to be part of the price for now but the demand is not a reason to see a rally anytime soon.  The US harvest is over.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 185 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 63.90, 63.20, and 62.00 March, with resistance of 65.40, 65.90 and 66.20 March.
FCOJ
General Comments:  Futures were a little higher yesterday, and the trends are still mixed on the daily charts.  Trading has been choppy lately.  Traders are worried about demand even with lower prices.  FCOJ from Brazil has been subjected to tariffs but those have been stopped by the US for now.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with occasional showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down.  Support is at 143.00, 13300, and 128.00 January, with resistance at 156.00, 164.00, and 173.00 January.
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York and London were lower yesterday, and trends are mixed in New Yiork but are turning down in London.  Scattered showers are being reported now to improve tree condition in Brazil.  Mexico is in good condition, as is Central America.  Vietnam has seen too much rain as typhoons hit the country, but the rains are receding now and harvesting has resumed.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 319.69 ct/lb.  ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 502 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 363.00, 359.00, and 352.00 March, and resistance is at 390.00, 400.00 and 415.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 4260, 4140, and 4000 January, with resistance at 4600, 4690, and 4790 January.
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were both higher yesterday on the release of the latest UNICA data.  Trends are sideways but are trying to turn up.  There are still ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  UNICA said that for the first two weeks of November, 18.8 million metric tons of sugarcane were harvested in for the south-central region of Brazil, which is up 14% from this time last year. 983,000 tons of sugar were refined, up almost 9% from last year, and total ethanol production was 1.3 billion liters, up almost 25% from last year.   Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong, but the south center harvest is almost over.  The prospect of a big global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increased supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.  India’s sugar production in the first two months of the 2025/26 season, which began on October 1, rose 43% from a year earlier, because of better recovery rates and faster crushing across major producing states.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1400 March and resistance is at 1520, 1540, and 1610 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 416.00, 410.00, and 408.00 March, with resistance at 437.00, 445.00, and 452.00 March.
COCOA
General Comments:  New York and London closed lower yesterday.  A big main crop harvest is anticipated in West Africa and rains have been positive for crops lately.  Light rains mixed with heat in Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions last week signaled a positive outlook for the main crop.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.
Overnight News:  ICE NY said that 84 notices were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,490 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 5270, 4930, and 4820 March, with resistance at 5780, 6110, and 6510 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 3940, 3830, and 3650 March, with resistance at 4200, 4400, and 4500 March.
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