Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Fed Bowman Speech at 9:00 A.M., RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index at 9:10 A.M., API Energy Stocks, LMI Logistics Managers Index, and Total Vehicle Sales at 3:30 P.M.
The Institute of Supply Management reported that it’s Manufacturing PMI fell to a 4-months low of 48.2 in November. The index above 50 reflects manufacturing expansion, and below 50 indicates contraction. The index ticked above 50 in January and February, has signaled contraction in 35 of the last 37 months. 2022 was the last year that the ISM Manufacturing PMI showed repeated manufacturing growth. Supplier deliveries, backlog of orders, and employment were the largest negative contributors, while production, inventories, and imports were the strongest contributors to the index. Overall, the data reflected a further contraction in the US manufacturing sector in November.
South American Weather Pattern Update
Routine South American Weather Forecast Dec 1-16:
The major forecasting models agree that a pattern of near to below normal rainfall will be established in Argentina and RGDS in far southern Brazil, and a pattern of normal to above normal rainfall blankets central & northern Brazil into mid-Dec. The best performing AI ensemble model’s two-week precipitation forecast with no area going without water. Regional dryness present in far north/northeastern Brazil will be erased. Model guidance has been inconsistent in Argentina, but so far forecast have understated actual rain totals. Importantly, a blocking pattern is not indicated in Argentina/S Brazil, and ARC doubts dryness will be an issue in the near and medium terms. Argentine soil moisture today is adequate to surplus following heavy rainfall of 2.0-3.2” in Buenos Aires, Cordoba, and Santa Fe over the weekend. The drought will be absent from South America as Brazilian soy and Argentine corn begin reproductive stages is important.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Ends Weak; Chart Resistance in Place; Global Supply Abundant:
March CBOT corn failed at $4.50 chart resistance for a fifth time and corn lacks the bullish fuel needed to sustain rallies. Early planted corn in Argentina will pollinate amid adequate/abundant soil moisture. US interior basis levels have weakened, which is partially explained by the roll to March but net losses in cash prices have been recorded so far this week in Central IL. Spot bids along the US river remain unremarkable, with basis in St. Louis quoted at $.06 over, vs. $.15 last week and vs. $30 over a year ago in December. US export demands remains supported amid competitive prices and as an estimated 10 MMT’s has been left to dry fields in Ukraine due to adverse weather at harvest. However, this supply arrives in spring, and Argentine production assuming normal weather expands 8-10 MMT’s year-over-year. Any/all US export demand is welcomed but it’s not enough to tighten the US balance sheet. A heavier market lies ahead as South American weather premium is extracted. Target $4.48, March CBOT, to catch up on old crop hedges.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Early Dec SA Weather Forecast Bearish. The Corn & Ethanol Report 12/02/2025
We kickoff the day with Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Fed Bowman Speech at 9:00 A.M., RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index at 9:10 A.M., API Energy Stocks, LMI Logistics Managers Index, and Total Vehicle Sales at 3:30 P.M.
The Institute of Supply Management reported that it’s Manufacturing PMI fell to a 4-months low of 48.2 in November. The index above 50 reflects manufacturing expansion, and below 50 indicates contraction. The index ticked above 50 in January and February, has signaled contraction in 35 of the last 37 months. 2022 was the last year that the ISM Manufacturing PMI showed repeated manufacturing growth. Supplier deliveries, backlog of orders, and employment were the largest negative contributors, while production, inventories, and imports were the strongest contributors to the index. Overall, the data reflected a further contraction in the US manufacturing sector in November.
South American Weather Pattern Update
Routine South American Weather Forecast Dec 1-16:
The major forecasting models agree that a pattern of near to below normal rainfall will be established in Argentina and RGDS in far southern Brazil, and a pattern of normal to above normal rainfall blankets central & northern Brazil into mid-Dec. The best performing AI ensemble model’s two-week precipitation forecast with no area going without water. Regional dryness present in far north/northeastern Brazil will be erased. Model guidance has been inconsistent in Argentina, but so far forecast have understated actual rain totals. Importantly, a blocking pattern is not indicated in Argentina/S Brazil, and ARC doubts dryness will be an issue in the near and medium terms. Argentine soil moisture today is adequate to surplus following heavy rainfall of 2.0-3.2” in Buenos Aires, Cordoba, and Santa Fe over the weekend. The drought will be absent from South America as Brazilian soy and Argentine corn begin reproductive stages is important.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Ends Weak; Chart Resistance in Place; Global Supply Abundant:
March CBOT corn failed at $4.50 chart resistance for a fifth time and corn lacks the bullish fuel needed to sustain rallies. Early planted corn in Argentina will pollinate amid adequate/abundant soil moisture. US interior basis levels have weakened, which is partially explained by the roll to March but net losses in cash prices have been recorded so far this week in Central IL. Spot bids along the US river remain unremarkable, with basis in St. Louis quoted at $.06 over, vs. $.15 last week and vs. $30 over a year ago in December. US export demands remains supported amid competitive prices and as an estimated 10 MMT’s has been left to dry fields in Ukraine due to adverse weather at harvest. However, this supply arrives in spring, and Argentine production assuming normal weather expands 8-10 MMT’s year-over-year. Any/all US export demand is welcomed but it’s not enough to tighten the US balance sheet. A heavier market lies ahead as South American weather premium is extracted. Target $4.48, March CBOT, to catch up on old crop hedges.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374