Massive Trade Revenue and Reduced Trade Deficit. The Energy Report 12/02/2025

Energy markets are buzzing as the United States continues to break export records and fuel the world, all while geopolitical tensions run high as the US Energy Industry helps reduce out trade deficit and bring in revenue and create jobs here at home.    

Thanks to the drill-drill-drill energy policies championed by the Trump administration, U.S. exports of fuels—from natural gas to gasoline—are surging to unprecedented levels. Amid global uncertainty, American energy producers are stepping up, supplying not just domestic needs but meeting ever-growing international demand, showcasing the incredible strength and innovation of U.S. oil and gas workers.

As the market weighs President Trump’s bold moves in Venezuela and the ongoing fallout from the Black Sea export terminal disruption, oil prices are holding firm with traders keeping a close eye on presidential actions. Yet it is US energy dominance that is keeping oil prices in place. Call Phil Flynn at 888-264-5665 to learn how to get involved.

Brent crude is steady around $63 per barrel after a strong run, while WTI remains above $59. At the same time, natural gas prices have rocketed to their highest level since 2022, and diesel continues to hover near its recent highs. Yet gasoline prices have actually slipped—down 2.6 cents from last year—even as other energy costs surge due to stronger than expected demand by an US economy that refuses to quit and by a frigid cold start to winer.

Petroleum exports reached a record high of 7.732 million barrels per day during the week ending November 21, 2025, representing an 11% increase from the previous week. This large export volume includes refined products like gasoline and diesel, highlighting the strength and innovation of U.S. oil refining.

U.S. crude production has shattered records, reaching an all-time peak of 13.84 million bpd in September 2025, with the lower 48 states maintain their momentum from record highs set in November 2024 right into this year. Annual crude exports averaged a phenomenal ~4.1 million bpd in 2023—the highest full-year tally ever—while Europe and Asia continued to eagerly receive American energy. These staggering achievements underscore the U.S.’s unrivaled position on the global energy stage.

The US energy dominance is also forcing OPEC to be more transparent. Reuters reported that, “Changes OPEC+ is making to its oil production quota system will likely spark a wave of upstream investments among members, particularly in low-cost Gulf producers, diminishing concerns of long-term supply shortages. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producing nations, including Russia and Kazakhstan, collectively known as OPEC+, approved on Sunday a new mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity, which will be used to set output baselines from 2027.

U.S. natural gas exports are also rocking as flows to LNG export facilities have reached all-time highs, with output up a staggering 40% compared to last year.

The Golden Pass terminal is about to come online, and forecasts for a colder-than-normal December promise to send even higher demand.

In early December, Henry Hub spot prices averaged $3.79 per MMBtu for November—the highest November average in three years—and currently hover near $3.90–$4.00/MMBtu, nearly double the low prices of late 2024. This dramatic 70–90% surge is a clear sign of tightening supply and robust demand.

November 2025 saw U.S. LNG exports smash records for the second straight month, shipping a gigantic 10.9 million metric tons as cooler European weather drove global demand. Top producers like Cheniere Energy and Venture Global led the charge, and U.S. liquefaction demand set new highs, exceeding 19 billion cubic feet per day for the first time ever. With Europe importing about 70% of this volume, prices overseas have stabilized, even dropping to one-year lows thanks to ample supply from America’s energy powerhouse. New projects are ramping up, setting the stage for the U.S. to double LNG export capacity by 2030.

The Energy Information Administration is forecasting Henry Hub prices to average $3.79/MMBtu for 2025—a 20% jump from earlier estimates—and could peak at $4.25/MMBtu in January 2026. If winter weather turns even harsher or exports accelerate further, expect more fireworks in the market!

 

Thanks,

Phil Flynn

Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report

Contributor to FOX Business Network

2918 S. Wentworth Ave. FL 1, Chicago, Illinois 60616

312 264 4364 (Direct)  |  888 264 5665 (Direct)  |  800 769 7021 (Main)  |  312 264 4303 (Fax)

www.pricegroup.com

Please do not leave any instructions for orders in your message, as we cannot execute instructions left through email or voicemail. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner.  PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.

Questions? Ask Phil Flynn today at 312-264-4364