Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with ADP Employment Change Weekly at 7:15 A.M., OOI MoM & YoY,, Retail Sales MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, PPI, PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM & YoY, Retail Sales Control Group MoM, Retail Sales Ex Autos, and PPI Sales Ex Gas/Autos at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM & YoY, House Price Index and House Price Index MoM & YoY at 8:00 A.M., Business Inventories MoM, CB Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales MoM & YoY, Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index, and Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Services Index and Dallas Fed Revenues Index at 9:30 A.M., 52-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 2-Year FRN Auction, 5-Year Note Auction, and Money Supply at 12:00 P.M., Cold Storage at 2:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
The Chicago Federal Reserve’s quarterly Ag Letter showed that the district’s average farmland values were, on average unchanged in Q3 according to the Fed’s survey of ag lenders. IL values rose 2%, WI declined 7% (after increasing 7% in Q2), while IN and IA farmland values were unchanged from Q2. Compared to a year ago, the district average farmland value was up 3%. IN marked the strongest increase, with farmland prices up 6% from 2024 in Q3. IL and Wi both saw annualized gains of 4%, while IA farmland vales were down 1% from last year. Credit conditions eased somewhat in Q3, with loan demand rising 5% from Q2 and up 6% from a year ago. Loan repayment rates declined 10% from Q2 and were down 16% from last year, while fund availability was unchanged for the quarter. Ag lenders anticipated weaker farmland values in Q4 with softening demand from farmer buyers, while 28% of lenders expected improved investor demand. Half of ag lenders anticipated lower farm loan repayment rates in the next 3-6 months, while 47% of lenders expected higher rates of forced liquidation of farm assets.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Drought to End Across Delta, Southern Midwest:
A rather active pattern of Central US precipitation lies ahead. Heavy cumulative snowfall worth 3-6+” will blanket the Central and Northern Plains and much of the Midwest from now till Dec 4th . Soaking rainfall of 2-4” impacts the far E Plains, Delta & southern Midwest Fri-Tues. The NOAA’s 7-day water equivalent precipitation was released and assuming this outlook is close to verifying drought will be completely eliminated from LA, AR and southern MO. Meaningful drought in mid-Dec will be confined for northern IL, central IN and NW OH. Similar to Argentina & southern Brazil, La Nina has not promoted lasting dryness across the southern US. Drought coverage was immense in mid-autumn, but moisture concerns ahead os spring are in retreat. Note also climate guidance continues to favor a wetter than normal December.
Corn Comments & Analysis
March CBOT Corn Stays Above 100-Day Moving Average ; Fresh Input Lacking; ALL Eyes on Argentine Weather Next 30 Days:
CBOT corn ended slightly weather managed to stay above key chart support. Fundamental breaking news is absent, though cash corn’s modest retreat to $4.00-$4.10 in Iowa has stabilized ethanol production margins there. Physical export disappearance remains record large. ARC maintains the next directional move will be a function of yield potential in Argentina & Brazil, and it’s Dec weather that’s critical. Near term forecast are favorable. Barring the emergence of outright drought and, more importantly, clients should be prepared for slow/steady premium extraction. ARC and other analysts have reiterated that Dec 1st corn still will be 1.0-1.1 Bil Bu above last year even assuming record Sep-Nov exports and a final yield of 184 BPA. Fixing oversupply will take time – or requires S American yield loss. Upside remains pegged at $4.50, with downside expanding to $4.10-$4.20, March, in Q1 2026. There is no shortage of feed, and cheap Argentine wheat cuts into world corn demand January onward.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
December Weather Key in the America’s. The Corn & Ethanol Report 11/25/2025
We kickoff the day with ADP Employment Change Weekly at 7:15 A.M., OOI MoM & YoY,, Retail Sales MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, PPI, PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM & YoY, Retail Sales Control Group MoM, Retail Sales Ex Autos, and PPI Sales Ex Gas/Autos at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM & YoY, House Price Index and House Price Index MoM & YoY at 8:00 A.M., Business Inventories MoM, CB Consumer Confidence, Pending Home Sales MoM & YoY, Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index, and Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index at 9:00 A.M., Dallas Fed Services Index and Dallas Fed Revenues Index at 9:30 A.M., 52-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 2-Year FRN Auction, 5-Year Note Auction, and Money Supply at 12:00 P.M., Cold Storage at 2:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
The Chicago Federal Reserve’s quarterly Ag Letter showed that the district’s average farmland values were, on average unchanged in Q3 according to the Fed’s survey of ag lenders. IL values rose 2%, WI declined 7% (after increasing 7% in Q2), while IN and IA farmland values were unchanged from Q2. Compared to a year ago, the district average farmland value was up 3%. IN marked the strongest increase, with farmland prices up 6% from 2024 in Q3. IL and Wi both saw annualized gains of 4%, while IA farmland vales were down 1% from last year. Credit conditions eased somewhat in Q3, with loan demand rising 5% from Q2 and up 6% from a year ago. Loan repayment rates declined 10% from Q2 and were down 16% from last year, while fund availability was unchanged for the quarter. Ag lenders anticipated weaker farmland values in Q4 with softening demand from farmer buyers, while 28% of lenders expected improved investor demand. Half of ag lenders anticipated lower farm loan repayment rates in the next 3-6 months, while 47% of lenders expected higher rates of forced liquidation of farm assets.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Drought to End Across Delta, Southern Midwest:
A rather active pattern of Central US precipitation lies ahead. Heavy cumulative snowfall worth 3-6+” will blanket the Central and Northern Plains and much of the Midwest from now till Dec 4th . Soaking rainfall of 2-4” impacts the far E Plains, Delta & southern Midwest Fri-Tues. The NOAA’s 7-day water equivalent precipitation was released and assuming this outlook is close to verifying drought will be completely eliminated from LA, AR and southern MO. Meaningful drought in mid-Dec will be confined for northern IL, central IN and NW OH. Similar to Argentina & southern Brazil, La Nina has not promoted lasting dryness across the southern US. Drought coverage was immense in mid-autumn, but moisture concerns ahead os spring are in retreat. Note also climate guidance continues to favor a wetter than normal December.
Corn Comments & Analysis
March CBOT Corn Stays Above 100-Day Moving Average ; Fresh Input Lacking; ALL Eyes on Argentine Weather Next 30 Days:
CBOT corn ended slightly weather managed to stay above key chart support. Fundamental breaking news is absent, though cash corn’s modest retreat to $4.00-$4.10 in Iowa has stabilized ethanol production margins there. Physical export disappearance remains record large. ARC maintains the next directional move will be a function of yield potential in Argentina & Brazil, and it’s Dec weather that’s critical. Near term forecast are favorable. Barring the emergence of outright drought and, more importantly, clients should be prepared for slow/steady premium extraction. ARC and other analysts have reiterated that Dec 1st corn still will be 1.0-1.1 Bil Bu above last year even assuming record Sep-Nov exports and a final yield of 184 BPA. Fixing oversupply will take time – or requires S American yield loss. Upside remains pegged at $4.50, with downside expanding to $4.10-$4.20, March, in Q1 2026. There is no shortage of feed, and cheap Argentine wheat cuts into world corn demand January onward.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374