Don’t Go Changing. The Energy Report 11/13/2025

Don’t go changing to try to please me, but the energy reporting agencies—the International Energy Agency, the Energy Information Administration, and OPEC—are all shifting their perspectives, and it’s impacting the market in dramatic ways. The energy agencies are adjusting their forecasts even as they still do not agree but all seem to be moving closer to the oil balance center. Still OPEC and the EIA report was bearish for oil but very bullish for natural gas. And The Fox Weather folks are saying our weather is changing. That will add even more excitement as we digest all the conflicting data we get from the EIA, the IEA and OPEC with seeming different outlooks or perhaps just different agendas. 

Oil prices took a nosedive on Wednesday as OPEC tossed out its earlier deficit forecast and now says the global market is headed for balance in 2026.  OPEC made the change because they say that non-OPEC producers—like the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana—keep cranking out more supply, pushing inventories back up. So much for those carbon targets, eh Brazil? Maybe cut down another rain forest so we can land some more private jets.

OPEC’s crystal ball does not exactly predict world swimming in oil. OPEC also says that global thirst for crude will hitting 106.2 million barrels daily, but even that can’t flip the OPEC script to a deficit. So, OPEC’s October prediction of a supply deficit has been replaced by a forecast of a perception so supply and demand being in balance and one with the universe, I guess.

The Energy Information Administration is seeing even more barrels sloshing around out there than OPEC, but in true government fashion, they’ve gone and bumped up their price and demand forecast anyway. According to the EIA, global oil inventories are on track to keep rising through 2026—which should be a recipe for lower prices. Yet, Brent crude is now pegged to average $54 a barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and $55 for the full year. That’s a $3 jump from last month’s call, and you can chalk it up to a couple of plot twists: China’s inventory growth isn’t as wild as first thought, and those Russian sanctions are still mucking up the math. So, while we keep looking for their predicted oil glut, their price outlook is still climbing.

While low prices are good, it’s not necessarily good for US shale oil production. Are low prices starting to cure low prices? Is it possible that the Energy Information Administration’s latest STEO signals that oil production from the US Lower 48—primarily driven by shale—has reached its peak? What could this mean for the future of American energy? Is this just a temporary plateau, or are we witnessing a turning point in the shale revolution? Call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665 for further discussion. Of course the shale revolution will not end as long as prices are high enough to support it. The US energy engineer is the best in the world and they can meet every challenge but one of the challenges that they can’t are low prices. Yet with the reduction of inflation and tariffs that should make it easier for shale oil producers to keep producing.

Where the shale revolution was truly most amazing was in transforming the U.S. natural gas market from a devastating production peak and shortage to an abundance unlike anything the world has ever seen. From almost no supply to becoming the largest producer globally, with upward production projections that are nearly unimaginable. While U.S. energy producers can increase output even further and are already setting record production levels, what the Energy Information Administration says about the market is one of the reasons we’re seeing supportive prices. In fact, that might not be a bad thing, because U.S. energy producers need higher prices to keep those drills running.

Remember when the U.S. used to be at the mercy of the world for natural gas? Well, those days are long gone. Now, thanks to American ingenuity, we’re shipping liquefied natural gas (LNG) to every corner of the globe. The Energy Information Administration says U.S. LNG exports will rocket to 14.9 billion cubic feet per day this year—a jaw-dropping 25% jump over last year. Give a tip of your hard hat to Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana, which fired up exports faster than anyone expected, forcing the EIA to hike its fourth-quarter export forecast by 3% compared to last month. And it’s not stopping there—U.S. LNG exports are on track to surge another 10% in 2026. The U.S. isn’t just meeting domestic needs; we’re powering the world’s furnaces, one super-cooled shipment at a time. You can get my special update and open your account by calling me, Phil Flynn, at 888-264-5665.

The Energy Information Administration also looking at the America’s power surge as it moves to win the global AI race. Electricity demand in the U.S. is off the charts, and if you think it’s over, it may just be getting started. The EIA says that sales of electricity to end-users are set to jump a wild 2.4% in 2025 and another 2.6% in 2026. And if you want to see where the real action is, look no further than the West South Central—yes, Texas, I’m looking at you. Thanks to a boom in data centers and the relentless power appetite of cryptocurrency miners, this region’s electric meters are spinning like slot machines in Vegas. Forget the grid of the past—America’s energy future is being built one server room and mining rig at a time!

You have a key to this market of course is what the Fox Weather channel calls weather whiplash. Fox Weather is predicting record high temperatures expected for 200+ million Americans after early week polar plunge . They say that after a pre-winter arctic blast set more than 70 record low temperatures across the eastern U.S. earlier this week, a major warmup is on the way, with parts of the Heartland expected to surpass the 80-degree mark by the weekend. So, turn off the heater and turn on the AC. Regardless of the weather, it will still burn natural gas. Yet the real key is December. Will we get whiplashed. Again Fox Weather says do not get too comfortable with the heat because the early December weather models look very frosty so stay tuned to the app.

You can download the Fox Weather app but you should also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network because they’re the best in the biz. You can also sign up for the daily Phil Flynn Daily Trade Levels that are wildly popular, and you can also open your account by calling me at 888-264-5665 or you can e-mail me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.