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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 11/13/2025

By On November 13, 2025 - 9:15 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was lower again yesterday.  There was not much in the way of bullish news to push prices higher, and there are some fears of increased production and ending stocks levels that might be found in the USDA WASDE reports.  A lack of new Chinese demand since the event of the lower tariffs created some selling interest. US tariffs are now being decided by the Supreme Court.  An end to the tariff wars could start demand for US Cotton in world markets again.  The US government is now open again and USDA reports will be released over the next few weeks.  The WASDE and production reports are expected to be released on time this week with little change expected in production or ending stocks.  The US harvest is starting to finish in most areas and initial yield reports are positive.  There are still ideas that harvesting conditions are generally good.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down.  Support is at 62.70, 62.10, and 61.50 December, with resistance of 64.60, 65.10 and 66.30 December.
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals for w/e Sep 25
    For the week ended Sep 25, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. Source: USDA
               wk’s net chg                  total
               in commitments             commitments      undlvd sales
                 this yr    next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr
upland cotton      155.4       44.1    4214.3    5054.8   3175.6    280.3
pima cotton          1.1        0.0     115.7     160.5     61.5      0.0
FCOJ
General Comments:  Futures were lower again yesterday and the trends are mixed on the daily reports.  The US government is open again after Congress passed funding bills.  Secretary Bessent said that certain products will get reduced tariffs soon to help lower prices.  FCOJ from Brazil has been subjected to a 50% tariff that was reduced and could be reduced further by the changes announced.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with occasional showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.
Overnight News:  ICE said that 141 notices were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 241 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down.  Support is at 170.00, 164.00, and 158.00 January, with resistance at 224.00, 237.00, and 247.00 January.
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York and London were sharply lower yesterday on tariff concerns.  Secretary Bessent said that certain products will get reduced tariffs soon to help lower prices.  Coffee from Brazil has been subjected to a 50% tariff that could be reduced a lot by the changes announced.  It has been a little too dry in Brazil for best yield potential.  Vietnam has seen too much rain as typhoons hit the country, but rain is returning to more normal levels now.  Activity remained quiet in Vietnam on limited supplies as offers of fresh beans from the current harvest have yet to pick up.  Vietnam exported 1.31 million metric tons of coffee over the January-October period, up 13.4% from a year earlier.  A revision of the 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian imports, including coffee, could push arabica prices lower.  Brazil exported 233,094 metric tons of green coffee in October, down from 279,233 tons a year ago.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 343.92 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 371.00, 360.00, and 350.00 December, and resistance is at 424.00, 430.00 and 436.00 December.  Trends in London are down.  Support is at 4200, 4000, and 3940 January, with resistance at 4550, 4680, and 4790 January.
DJ Brazilian Coffee Exports Fall 20% From Prior Year — Market Talk
     1438 ET – Exports of coffee from Brazil totaled 4.14 million 60-kg bags in October, says Cecafe in a note. The group says that this volume is 20% lower than the 5.18 million bags seen in October 2024. From the start of the year to the end of October, Brazil has exported 33.28 million bags of coffee, which is down 20% from last year’s total of 41.77 million bags in the same timeframe last year. Dragging down 2025 figures is the implementation of tariffs on Brazilian exports by the U.S., with American export purchases over the past three months only half of what they were last year. Other issues impacting Brazilian shipments include issues with port infrastructure in Brazil. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were higher again yesterday.  The daily charts suggest that futures prices have found a low in the current area.  Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong, but the south center harvest is almost over.  Too much rain has been reported in northern areas.  The prospect of a big global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increased supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.  India plans to allow sugar exports of 1.5 million metric tons in the new season as a decline in the diversion of sugar for ethanol production is expected to leave a larger domestic surplus.  China kept its 2025/26 sugar imports forecast unchanged at 5 million tons.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down.  Support is at 1400, 1370, and 1340 March and resistance is at 1520, 1540, and 1610 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 408.00, 399.00, and 393.00 March, with resistance at 429.00, 437.00, and 445.00 March.
COCOA
General Comments:  New York closed lower and London closed slightly higher yesterday and trends remain mixed to down in both markets.  A big main crop harvest is anticipated in West Africa.  Demand concerns in West Africa continue.  Light rains mixed with heat in Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions last week signaled a positive outlook for the main crop.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Malaysia and the US have apparently agreed to allow Malaysian Cocoa into the US with 0 tariffs.  Cocoa arrivals in ports in top grower Ivory Coast were picking up after a slow start to the season.  A total of about 107,000 tons were delivered between November 3 and November 9, up from 90,000 tons in the same week of the previous season,
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up.  Support is at 5560, 5510, and 5450 December, with resistance at 5780, 6110, and 6410 December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 4010, 3920, and 3860 December, with resistance at 4530, 4630, and 4780 December.
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