The action and the grain and livestock markets this week was one of uncertainty. After seeing some modest strength in the ag late last week and early this week, the price action in the last half of this week seemed to add some pressure. Whether that be uncertainty over China or unknowns with the lack of export sales reports or just position squaring as we are expected to receive USDA report next week, the market saw quite a bit of back and forth trade. Sort of like the old seesaws or teeter totters as we always called them, the market had a lot of up and down trade. Of course, there’s always that one person who gets off at the bottom while you’re still at the top, which has seemed to relate to the cattle market over the last several weeks.
Corn futures gave some back this week, with December down 4 ¼ cents from last Friday. While corn has been mum from the US/China trad chatter from the last couple weeks, China did purchase a cargo of US sorghum this week. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 1.665 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 10/30, up 34.3% from last week and well above the same week last year. Year to date exports are 63.99% larger from last year at 12.257 MMT. Weekly EIA data published a record ethanol production number this week, up 32,000 barrels per day in the week ending on October 31 at 1.123 million barrels per day. Consumption slipped back, as stocks of ethanol stocks saw a build of 228,000 barrels at 22.665 million barrels.
Wheat was back to mixed this week, as the winter wheat fell weaker late. December MPLS spring wheat held up for a nickel gain. The Chicago December contract was 6 1/4 cents lower, with December KC HRW futures 5 1/4 cents in the red. Chian was reported to have purchased a couple cargoes of US wheat this week, totaling at least 120,000 MT. News continues to be light this week with the government shutdown. USDA offices continue to be closed for the most part. We are still getting bits and pieces of the ‘essential’ data. Export Inspections were at 350,293 MT, which was 60.9% above last year and a 30% increase from last week. In the first 5 months of the marketing year shipments are 20.51% above last year at 11.825 MMT.
Soybeans held on for a 1 ¾ cent gain in the January contract this week despite a back and forth trade. December soybean meal was back down another $4.50/ton (1.4%) on the week, as bean oil was 100 points (2.05%) higher. Very little was mentioned on any Chinese purchases of US soybeans this week though tariffs have been removed with exception to a 10% left on from the Liberation Day retaliatory tariffs. China also reinstated 3 US export firms that had previously had their import licenses suspended. Of the few USDA reports released this week, FGIS data showed soybean exports dropping 33.3% from the week prior to 965,063 MT in the week of 10/30. That was still 58.3% below the same week last year as the lack of China as a destination is trimming back the seasonal pattern. Marketing year shipments are now 40% below last year at 7.78 MMT.
Live cattle held up early in the week, but slipped lower late, with December down $8.32 on the week. Cash trade slipped back this week, down $1-2 to $230-231 in the North and $232 in the South. Feeders continued the collapsed this week, down another $12.475. Secretary Rollins visits with Mexico’s president this week and commented they are not ready to open the border yet but stated President Trump is focused on getting the border reopened. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back and forth this week but ended down $1.29 week/week to $345.96. Wholesale boxed beef prices turned in with mixed action on the week. Choice was $1.73/cwt lower (-0.5%) this week to $376.40, as Select was up $2.44 (0.7%) at $361.09 as of Friday. Weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 555,000 head by the USDA. That was a 4,000 head drop from last week and 65,666 head below the same week last year.
Hogs continued to slip lower this week, down $1.87 since last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.93 this week at $91.53 as of November 4. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout slipped below the $100 level this week, down $2.97 to $98.98/cwt. The picnic primal was the only reported higher. Weekly hog slaughter totaled 2.633 million head this week according to USDA. That was 61,000 head above last week and 32,279 head above of the same week in 2024.
Cotton futures gave back much of the previous week’s rally, back down 192 points this week. Among all the tariff talk, cotton has largely remained not much of a topic of conversation. Still China did state they were lowering tariffs on cotton imports from the US starting 11/10. With the lack of Export Sales Data, the market is trying to gauge demand, with thoughts China could begin buying. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report and AWP were not reported.
Market Watch
With the government shutdown still ongoing, things will likely be quiet again next week, though we may be getting closer to a solution. Monday will again not see the release of the Crop Progress reports, though the Export Inspections will still be released. Tuesday will be quiet due to Veterans Day and the government naturally being closed. The markets are open. EIA data will be delayed to Thursday. The Export Sales report will likely be suspended/delayed due to the shutdown. Friday is the expiration of November soybean futures. USDA has also stated they will release this months Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday.
Tech Talk: March Corn
March corn had a rough end to the week, that saw the Wednesday spike of the downtrend line ($4.45 ¾) off of the February high rejected on Thursday. Futures also have a two third speed line at $4.50 and three quarters, with a 38.2% Fib retracement at $4.49 1/2. We have a proverbial, boat load, of resistance around the $4.50 area, with a neckline off of a head and shoulders bottom at $4.51. That count would point to the upper $4.80s if we can breakthrough. As you can see though, we are having trouble. Stochastics are bearish, with MACD losing bullish momentum. As stated in Friday morning’s AMP, we are at an inflection point, with a break higher indicating a larger move, but we are also testing support. That comes via the lower regression channel support at $4.43, which failed on Friday’s test, with the 18-day moving average at $4.41. Breaking that areas would suggest a test of the uptrend line off the LOC low at $4.31 ½.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Seesaw. Ag Marketing Report 11/10/2025
The action and the grain and livestock markets this week was one of uncertainty. After seeing some modest strength in the ag late last week and early this week, the price action in the last half of this week seemed to add some pressure. Whether that be uncertainty over China or unknowns with the lack of export sales reports or just position squaring as we are expected to receive USDA report next week, the market saw quite a bit of back and forth trade. Sort of like the old seesaws or teeter totters as we always called them, the market had a lot of up and down trade. Of course, there’s always that one person who gets off at the bottom while you’re still at the top, which has seemed to relate to the cattle market over the last several weeks.
Corn futures gave some back this week, with December down 4 ¼ cents from last Friday. While corn has been mum from the US/China trad chatter from the last couple weeks, China did purchase a cargo of US sorghum this week. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 1.665 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 10/30, up 34.3% from last week and well above the same week last year. Year to date exports are 63.99% larger from last year at 12.257 MMT. Weekly EIA data published a record ethanol production number this week, up 32,000 barrels per day in the week ending on October 31 at 1.123 million barrels per day. Consumption slipped back, as stocks of ethanol stocks saw a build of 228,000 barrels at 22.665 million barrels.
Wheat was back to mixed this week, as the winter wheat fell weaker late. December MPLS spring wheat held up for a nickel gain. The Chicago December contract was 6 1/4 cents lower, with December KC HRW futures 5 1/4 cents in the red. Chian was reported to have purchased a couple cargoes of US wheat this week, totaling at least 120,000 MT. News continues to be light this week with the government shutdown. USDA offices continue to be closed for the most part. We are still getting bits and pieces of the ‘essential’ data. Export Inspections were at 350,293 MT, which was 60.9% above last year and a 30% increase from last week. In the first 5 months of the marketing year shipments are 20.51% above last year at 11.825 MMT.
Soybeans held on for a 1 ¾ cent gain in the January contract this week despite a back and forth trade. December soybean meal was back down another $4.50/ton (1.4%) on the week, as bean oil was 100 points (2.05%) higher. Very little was mentioned on any Chinese purchases of US soybeans this week though tariffs have been removed with exception to a 10% left on from the Liberation Day retaliatory tariffs. China also reinstated 3 US export firms that had previously had their import licenses suspended. Of the few USDA reports released this week, FGIS data showed soybean exports dropping 33.3% from the week prior to 965,063 MT in the week of 10/30. That was still 58.3% below the same week last year as the lack of China as a destination is trimming back the seasonal pattern. Marketing year shipments are now 40% below last year at 7.78 MMT.
Live cattle held up early in the week, but slipped lower late, with December down $8.32 on the week. Cash trade slipped back this week, down $1-2 to $230-231 in the North and $232 in the South. Feeders continued the collapsed this week, down another $12.475. Secretary Rollins visits with Mexico’s president this week and commented they are not ready to open the border yet but stated President Trump is focused on getting the border reopened. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back and forth this week but ended down $1.29 week/week to $345.96. Wholesale boxed beef prices turned in with mixed action on the week. Choice was $1.73/cwt lower (-0.5%) this week to $376.40, as Select was up $2.44 (0.7%) at $361.09 as of Friday. Weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 555,000 head by the USDA. That was a 4,000 head drop from last week and 65,666 head below the same week last year.
Hogs continued to slip lower this week, down $1.87 since last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.93 this week at $91.53 as of November 4. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout slipped below the $100 level this week, down $2.97 to $98.98/cwt. The picnic primal was the only reported higher. Weekly hog slaughter totaled 2.633 million head this week according to USDA. That was 61,000 head above last week and 32,279 head above of the same week in 2024.
Cotton futures gave back much of the previous week’s rally, back down 192 points this week. Among all the tariff talk, cotton has largely remained not much of a topic of conversation. Still China did state they were lowering tariffs on cotton imports from the US starting 11/10. With the lack of Export Sales Data, the market is trying to gauge demand, with thoughts China could begin buying. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report and AWP were not reported.
Market Watch
With the government shutdown still ongoing, things will likely be quiet again next week, though we may be getting closer to a solution. Monday will again not see the release of the Crop Progress reports, though the Export Inspections will still be released. Tuesday will be quiet due to Veterans Day and the government naturally being closed. The markets are open. EIA data will be delayed to Thursday. The Export Sales report will likely be suspended/delayed due to the shutdown. Friday is the expiration of November soybean futures. USDA has also stated they will release this months Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday.
Tech Talk: March Corn
March corn had a rough end to the week, that saw the Wednesday spike of the downtrend line ($4.45 ¾) off of the February high rejected on Thursday. Futures also have a two third speed line at $4.50 and three quarters, with a 38.2% Fib retracement at $4.49 1/2. We have a proverbial, boat load, of resistance around the $4.50 area, with a neckline off of a head and shoulders bottom at $4.51. That count would point to the upper $4.80s if we can breakthrough. As you can see though, we are having trouble. Stochastics are bearish, with MACD losing bullish momentum. As stated in Friday morning’s AMP, we are at an inflection point, with a break higher indicating a larger move, but we are also testing support. That comes via the lower regression channel support at $4.43, which failed on Friday’s test, with the 18-day moving average at $4.41. Breaking that areas would suggest a test of the uptrend line off the LOC low at $4.31 ½.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.